Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-07-20T17:00:29-04:00
30
Arsenal Edges
5
Edges That Hit HR
17%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-07-20
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | George Kirby | Knuckle Curve | +15.3 | +2.9 | 10% | 2 | 1 | #87 | |
| · | Jordan Walker | Jose Soriano | Knuckle Curve | +14.6 | -1.1 | 25% | 1 | 2 | #19 | |
| · | Curtis Mead | Kyle Freeland | Knuckle Curve | +11.8 | +2.3 | 21% | 0 | 5 | #5 | |
| · | Jim Jarvis | JP Sears | Changeup | +8.9 | +4.6 | 23% | 0 | 1 | #70 | |
| 💥 | Andrew Vaughn | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +4.7 | +0.1 | 53% | 3 | 6 | #157 | |
| · | Juan Soto | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +3.2 | -2.0 | 63% | 8 | 5 | #25 | |
| · | Cole Carrigg | Andrew Alvarez | Slider | +9.6 | +0.9 | 24% | 1 | 1 | #91 | |
| · | Shohei Ohtani | Cristopher Sanchez | Sinker | +6.2 | -0.3 | 43% | 7 | 5 | #9 | |
| 💥 | Salvador Perez | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +2.5 | -0.8 | 57% | 4 | 2 | #125 | |
| · | Tommy Edman | Cristopher Sanchez | Sinker | +5.3 | -0.3 | 43% | 0 | 5 | #106 | |
| · | Nicky Lopez | Erick Fedde | Sinker | +7.7 | +0.4 | 29% | 0 | 3 | #243 | |
| 💥 | Jacob Young | Kyle Freeland | Knuckle Curve | +7.9 | +2.3 | 21% | 0 | 5 | #86 | |
| · | Carter Jensen | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +2.2 | -0.8 | 57% | 2 | 2 | #112 | |
| · | Jake Bauers | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +2.1 | +0.1 | 53% | 5 | 6 | #12 | |
| 💥 | Bryce Harper | Emmet Sheehan | Fastball | +3.7 | +0.7 | 43% | 10 | 11 | #21 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Braxton Ashcraft | Fastball | +6.5 | +0.2 | 32% | 15 | 7 | #6 | |
| · | Jorbit Vivas | Kyle Freeland | Knuckle Curve | +7.0 | +2.3 | 21% | 1 | 5 | #158 | |
| · | Dominic Canzone | Andrew Abbott | Fastball | +2.5 | +0.2 | 47% | 8 | 10 | #47 | |
| · | Jasson Dominguez | Braxton Ashcraft | Curveball | +8.4 | -1.8 | 26% | 1 | 3 | #140 | |
| · | Vinnie Pasquantino | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +0.8 | -0.8 | 57% | 2 | 2 | #200 | |
| · | Kyle Schwarber | Emmet Sheehan | Fastball | +2.7 | +0.7 | 43% | 10 | 11 | #2 | |
| · | Francisco Alvarez | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +0.3 | -2.0 | 63% | 3 | 5 | #92 | |
| · | Victor Caratini | Tanner Bibee | Cutter | +6.8 | +0.2 | 24% | 3 | 9 | #123 | |
| · | Jj Wetherholt | Jose Soriano | Knuckle Curve | +7.6 | -1.1 | 25% | 0 | 2 | #137 | |
| · | Gabriel Moreno | Jeffrey Springs | Fastball | +1.4 | +1.8 | 44% | 4 | 11 | #147 | |
| · | Elly De La Cruz | George Kirby | Knuckle Curve | +7.7 | +2.9 | 10% | 1 | 1 | #60 | |
| · | Isaac Collins | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +0.1 | -0.8 | 57% | 1 | 2 | #201 | |
| 💥 | Cj Abrams | Kyle Freeland | Cutter | +7.2 | +0.0 | 21% | 5 | 2 | #20 | |
| · | Jackson Chourio | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +0.1 | +0.1 | 53% | 2 | 6 | #54 | |
| · | Luke Raley | Andrew Abbott | Fastball | +1.5 | +0.2 | 47% | 6 | 10 | #84 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+27.8 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.5 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+22.3 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.