Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-06-14T11:00:33-04:00
30
Arsenal Edges
4
Edges That Hit HR
13%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-06-14
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | Zac Gallen | Knuckle Curve | +17.4 | +2.1 | 20% | 2 | 2 | #26 | |
| · | Jasson Domínguez | Patrick Corbin | Slider | +12.8 | -1.1 | 25% | 2 | 2 | #24 | |
| · | Ceddanne Rafaela | Nathan Eovaldi | Splitter | +10.7 | -1.9 | 38% | 0 | 3 | #116 | |
| · | Zack Gelof | Tomoyuki Sugano | Splitter | +12.2 | -0.5 | 20% | 1 | 2 | #21 | |
| · | Colt Emerson | Miles Mikolas | Sweeper | +11.3 | +3.3 | 6% | 1 | 1 | #10 | |
| 💥 | Junior Caminero | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +2.5 | +1.4 | 53% | 4 | 3 | #44 | |
| · | Bryce Harper | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +2.5 | -0.9 | 59% | 7 | 5 | #32 | |
| · | Kyle Schwarber | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +2.4 | -0.9 | 59% | 7 | 5 | #13 | |
| 💥 | Rodolfo Durán | Trevor Rogers | Fastball | +4.9 | +0.9 | 42% | 2 | 6 | #57 | |
| · | Jasson Domínguez | Patrick Corbin | Cutter | +8.2 | +3.4 | 17% | 0 | 2 | #24 | |
| · | Jasson Domínguez | Patrick Corbin | Sinker | +6.3 | +1.3 | 30% | 0 | 3 | #24 | |
| · | Wilyer Abreu | Nathan Eovaldi | Splitter | +7.0 | -1.9 | 38% | 1 | 3 | #74 | |
| · | Brandon Marsh | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +1.6 | -0.9 | 59% | 3 | 5 | #92 | |
| · | Trea Turner | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +1.0 | -0.9 | 59% | 3 | 5 | #202 | |
| · | Adley Rutschman | Walker Buehler | Cutter | +9.0 | -1.4 | 24% | 3 | 0 | #34 | |
| 💥 | Tommy Troy | Andrew Abbott | Fastball | +3.3 | -0.8 | 48% | 1 | 5 | #175 | |
| · | Shohei Ohtani | Erick Fedde | Sinker | +6.2 | +0.9 | 28% | 4 | 3 | #12 | |
| · | Sal Stewart | Zac Gallen | Fastball | +3.7 | +1.6 | 37% | 5 | 6 | #28 | |
| · | Jj Bleday | Zac Gallen | Fastball | +3.7 | +1.6 | 37% | 4 | 6 | #29 | |
| · | Jordan Lawlar | Andrew Abbott | Fastball | +3.1 | -0.8 | 48% | 1 | 5 | #129 | |
| · | Dominic Smith | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +2.0 | -1.1 | 54% | 3 | 3 | #150 | |
| · | Shea Langeliers | Tomoyuki Sugano | Splitter | +8.8 | -0.5 | 20% | 2 | 2 | #2 | |
| · | Matt Olson | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +1.8 | -1.1 | 54% | 8 | 3 | #17 | |
| · | Jonathan Aranda | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.0 | +1.4 | 53% | 5 | 3 | #75 | |
| · | Yandy Díaz | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.1 | +1.4 | 53% | 4 | 3 | #82 | |
| · | Kyle Tucker | Erick Fedde | Sweeper | +5.3 | -0.9 | 38% | 1 | 3 | #153 | |
| 💥 | Alec Burleson | Taj Bradley | Fastball | +2.4 | -0.3 | 47% | 5 | 4 | #22 | |
| · | Jake Rogers | Gavin Williams | Curveball | +7.6 | -0.2 | 23% | 0 | 4 | #133 | |
| · | Jung Hoo Lee | Ryan Rolison | Fastball | +3.7 | -1.3 | 45% | 3 | 2 | #201 | |
| · | Alejandro Kirk | Will Warren | Sinker | +6.7 | +0.0 | 26% | 1 | 2 | #56 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+26.4 RV allowed
Brady Singer
+23.0 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+22.9 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.