TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ MIL

Suppressed air · 0.86×

STL @ MIL

American Family Field · 7:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 4 mph cross 57°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-5 ↑

6:10p

-5 ↑

7:10p

-6 ↑

8:10p

-6 ↑

9:10p

-6 ↑

10:10p

best window is early — 6:10p at -5

Best of game Brice Turang conv 18 · vs Mathews ⟷ Alec Burleson conv 19 · vs May → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Quinn Mathews LHP · STL

leak 95

0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brice Turang — D ●●●○○

2 Jake Bauers — C ●●●○○

3 William Contreras — D ●●○○○

FADE Dustin May RHP · STL

leak 33

0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · stingy — thin edge

1 Alec Burleson — D ●●●○○

2 Jordan Walker — C ●●○○○

3 Ivan Herrera — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: Match 21.5% · 14D pace 11.1% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ COOL vs Mathews — 0.223 · 92.1 · 8.2% 11.1% 21.5% F B O C 52

· MIL Jordan Walker HOT vs May — 0.196 · 92.7 · 10.1% 9.1% 12.2% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· MIL Alec Burleson COOL vs May Edge — 0.185 · 92.0 · 9.2% 20.0% 18.3% F B O D 49

· MIL Brice Turang vs Mathews — 0.176 · 90.2 · 6.0% 18.2% 18.3% F B O D 43

· MIL William Contreras COOL vs Mathews Edge — 0.148 · 90.3 · 6.4% 20.0% 10.6% F B O D 40

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Mathews Edge — 0.198 · 91.6 · 7.7% 9.1% 18.2% F B O D 48

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs Mathews — 0.145 · 88.9 · 6.7% 11.1% 9.4% F B O D 38

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Mathews — 0.156 · 93.2 · 7.4% 9.1% 10.4% F B O D 41

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Mathews Edge — 0.133 · 89.2 · 4.4% 10.0% 6.3% F B O D 34

· MIL Ivan Herrera HOT vs May — 0.138 · 89.4 · 6.8% 0.0% 13.2% F B O D 34

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Mathews — 0.088 · 86.8 · 3.9% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 28

· MIL Sal Frelick COOL vs Mathews — 0.089 · 85.6 · 3.3% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 26

· MIL Jj Wetherholt COOL vs May Edge — 0.125 · 89.8 · 7.5% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 36

· MIL Nolan Gorman COOL vs May Edge — 0.126 · 89.5 · 8.7% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 38

· MIL Nathan Church COOL vs May Edge — 0.119 · 85.6 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 32

· MIL Masyn Winn COOL vs May — 0.086 · 88.3 · 5.0% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 28

· MIL José Fermín COOL vs May — 0.109 · 86.1 · 4.0% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Quinn Mathews — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Dustin May — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Chourio Turang Contreras Burleson

Legend

attack side — vs Mathews fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Alec Burleson — · 49

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 6:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.95× Wind 4 mph cross 57°F retractable

-5

↑

4 mph · cross

57°F

6:10p · peak

-5

↑

3 mph · cross

54°F

7:10p

-6

↑

4 mph · in

53°F

8:10p

-6

↑

4 mph · in

52°F

9:10p

-6

↑

3 mph · in

51°F

10:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.86× 57°F, wind 4 mph E (cross) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Quinn Mathews · LHP 0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 52 C — COOL 42 0.223 92.1 8.2% 26.7%vs LHP 401 19.2% 11.1% 21.5% 16

2 Jackson Chourio 48 D — · 62 0.198 91.6 7.7% 25.8%vs LHP 400 16.9% 9.1% 18.2% 26

3 Brice Turang 43 D — · 101 0.176 90.2 6.0% 10.0%vs LHP 406 11.3% 18.2% 18.3% 23

4 Garrett Mitchell 41 D — COOL 121 0.156 93.2 7.4% 14.3%vs LHP 417 7.9% 9.1% 10.4% 20

5 William Contreras 40 D — COOL 123 0.148 90.3 6.4% 11.8%vs LHP 407 11.9% 20.0% 10.6% 28

6 Christian Yelich 38 D — COOL 133 0.145 88.9 6.7% 13.3%vs LHP 395 9.3% 11.1% 9.4% 21

7 Joey Ortiz 34 D — · 156 0.133 89.2 4.4% 9.1%vs LHP 392 7.4% 10.0% 6.3% 21

8 David Hamilton 28 D — COOL 182 0.088 86.8 3.9% 16.7%vs LHP 386 4.0% 0.0% 8.9% 11

9 Sal Frelick 26 D — COOL 184 0.089 85.6 3.3% 7.7%vs LHP 396 3.2% 0.0% 7.8% 22

vs Dustin May · RHP 0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 50 C — HOT 51 0.196 92.7 10.1% 24.7%vs RHP 406 16.6% 9.1% 12.2% 19

2 Alec Burleson 49 D — COOL 55 0.185 92.0 9.2% 22.5%vs RHP 405 14.6% 20.0% 18.3% 26

3 Nolan Gorman 38 D — COOL 136 0.126 89.5 8.7% 14.5%vs RHP 407 9.1% 0.0% 7.5% 10

4 Jj Wetherholt 36 D — COOL 145 0.125 89.8 7.5% 15.1%vs RHP 393 16.7% 0.0% 7.6% 17

5 Ivan Herrera 34 D — HOT 152 0.138 89.4 6.8% 20.3%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 25

6 Nathan Church 32 D — COOL 164 0.119 85.6 6.3% 12.3%vs RHP 386 6.9% 0.0% 7.3% 35

7 José Fermín 29 D — COOL 180 0.109 86.1 4.0% 6.1%vs RHP 390 5.1% 0.0% 6.3% 16

8 Masyn Winn 28 D — COOL 183 0.086 88.3 5.0% 7.4%vs RHP 385 3.8% 0.0% 6.5% 19

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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