TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ MIA

Neutral air · 1.02×

ATL @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 4:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.85× Wind 5 mph out 87°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+1 ↑

4:10p

+1 ↑

5:10p

+0 ↑

6:10p

-2 ↑

7:10p

-2 ↑

8:10p

best window is early — 4:10p at +1

Best of game Kyle Stowers conv 18 · vs Suter ⟷ Matt Olson conv 25 · vs Ralston → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Brent Suter LHP · LAA

leak 95

0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Stowers — D ●●●○○

2 Jakob Marsee — D ●●○○○

3 Javier Sanoja — D ●●○○○

FADE Jack Ralston RHP

leak 86

2.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.59 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson — C+ ●●●●○

2 Mike Yastrzemski — D ●●●○○

3 Austin Riley — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: Match 24.7% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Matt Olson ✶ COOL vs Ralston Edge — 0.254 · 92.5 · 11.7% 25.0% 24.7% F B O C+ 61

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· — Mike Yastrzemski vs Ralston Edge — 0.159 · 90.4 · 7.9% 28.6% 15.2% F B O D 42

· — Kyle Stowers vs Suter — 0.220 · 92.5 · 9.0% 20.0% 16.8% F B O D 47

· — Austin Riley COOL vs Ralston — 0.148 · 91.2 · 10.9% 18.2% 15.1% F B O D 45

· — Jakob Marsee COOL vs Suter — 0.125 · 87.3 · 4.9% 16.7% 10.3% F B O D 30

· — Javier Sanoja vs Suter Edge — 0.159 · 86.9 · 4.1% 16.7% 7.9% F B O D 31

· — Ronald Acuna vs Ralston — 0.200 · 89.7 · 11.2% 0.0% 22.6% F B O D 46

· — Drake Baldwin vs Ralston Edge — 0.173 · 91.4 · 11.0% 8.3% 10.4% F B O D 47

· — Ozzie Albies vs Ralston Edge — 0.156 · 87.0 · 6.0% 8.3% 8.4% F B O D 37

· — Otto Lopez vs Suter Edge — 0.133 · 89.2 · 6.2% 8.3% 5.9% F B O D 31

· — Michael Harris vs Ralston Edge — 0.194 · 90.6 · 9.8% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 44

· — Heriberto Hernández COOL vs Suter Edge — 0.206 · 91.3 · 8.8% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 39

· — Dominic Smith vs Ralston — 0.121 · 87.7 · 7.2% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 34

· — Mauricio Dubon vs Ralston — 0.119 · 86.4 · 6.0% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 29

· — Xavier Edwards COOL vs Suter Edge — 0.091 · 86.8 · 4.5% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Jack Ralston — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Brent Suter — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Riley Yastrzemski Stowers Marsee

Legend

attack side — vs Suter fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Matt Olson — · 61

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 4:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.85× Wind 5 mph out 87°F retractable

↑

5 mph · out

86°F

4:10p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

86°F

5:10p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

84°F

6:10p

-2

↑

3 mph · slight_out

83°F

7:10p

-2

↑

3 mph · slight_out

81°F

8:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.02× 87°F, wind 5 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jack Ralston · RHP 2.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.59 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 61 C+ — COOL 12 0.254 92.5 11.7% 28.1%vs RHP 406 23.0% 25.0% 24.7% 39

2 Drake Baldwin 47 D — WARM 72 0.173 91.4 11.0% 21.5%vs RHP 401 15.0% 8.3% 10.4% 35

3 Ronald Acuna 46 D — WARM 76 0.200 89.7 11.2% 27.3%vs RHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 22.6% 31

4 Austin Riley 45 D — COOL 81 0.148 91.2 10.9% 18.3%vs RHP 411 10.2% 18.2% 15.1% 24

5 Michael Harris 44 D — · 91 0.194 90.6 9.8% 25.0%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 41

6 Mike Yastrzemski 42 D — · 111 0.159 90.4 7.9% 16.2%vs RHP 386 8.9% 28.6% 15.2% 20

7 Ozzie Albies 37 D — · 140 0.156 87.0 6.0% 13.0%vs RHP 388 12.6% 8.3% 8.4% 33

8 Dominic Smith 34 D — · 153 0.121 87.7 7.2% 14.0%vs RHP 392 7.8% 0.0% 9.4% 0

9 Mauricio Dubon 29 D — WARM 179 0.119 86.4 6.0% 8.9%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 37

vs Brent Suter · LHP 0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 47 D — WARM 67 0.220 92.5 9.0% 13.3%vs LHP 399 15.2% 20.0% 16.8% 31

2 Heriberto Hernández 39 D — COOL 126 0.206 91.3 8.8% 30.3%vs LHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 32

3 Javier Sanoja 31 D — WARM 167 0.159 86.9 4.1% 13.6%vs LHP 385 8.7% 16.7% 7.9% 39

4 Otto Lopez 31 D — · 172 0.133 89.2 6.2% 8.8%vs LHP 398 6.5% 8.3% 5.9% 34

5 Jakob Marsee 30 D — COOL 177 0.125 87.3 4.9% 8.3%vs LHP 386 8.5% 16.7% 10.3% 28

6 Xavier Edwards 23 D — COOL 191 0.091 86.8 4.5% 18.2%vs LHP 396 3.6% 0.0% 6.7% 12

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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