TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ CWS

Neutral air · 1.05×

COL @ CWS

Rate Field · 7:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Munetaka Murakami conv 32 · vs Quintana ⟷ Hunter Goodman conv 24 · vs Martin → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Jose Quintana LHP · COL

leak 99

1.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · leakiest side of this game

1 Munetaka Murakami — B ●●●●●

2 Miguel Vargas — C+ ●●●●○

3 Randal Grichuk — C+ ●●●○○

FADE Davis Martin RHP · CWS

leak 63

0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · stingy — thin edge

1 Hunter Goodman — C+ ●●●●○

2 Cole Carrigg — D ●●●●○

3 Ezequiel Tovar — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: Match 39.1% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Quintana — 0.263 · 93.9 · 13.5% 25.0% 39.1% F B O B 73

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Quintana Edge — 0.227 · 90.1 · 10.9% 23.1% 26.9% F B O C+ 66

· COL Hunter Goodman COOL vs Martin — 0.276 · 89.7 · 9.7% 20.0% 27.9% F B O C+ 64

· CWS Randal Grichuk vs Quintana Edge — 0.279 · 91.5 · 9.9% 16.7% 23.3% F B O C+ 63

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Martin Edge — 0.245 · 89.7 · 8.0% 11.1% 18.0% F B O C 55

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Quintana — 0.209 · 88.6 · 10.5% 0.0% 19.6% F B O C+ 60

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Quintana — 0.169 · 89.3 · 8.7% 0.0% 12.8% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· COL Cole Carrigg vs Martin Edge — 0.191 · 87.9 · 6.1% 25.0% 20.9% F B O D 48

· COL Ezequiel Tovar vs Martin — 0.127 · 87.2 · 6.7% 20.0% 14.0% F B O D 41

· COL Kyle Karros vs Martin — 0.164 · 89.6 · 7.4% 18.2% 14.1% F B O D 47

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Quintana Edge — 0.138 · 87.3 · 6.5% 16.7% 11.0% F B O D 45

· CWS Tristan Peters COOL vs Quintana — 0.175 · 87.5 · 7.0% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 48

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Martin Edge — 0.188 · 85.2 · 6.0% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 43

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Martin Edge — 0.149 · 84.3 · 5.8% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 39

· CWS Sam Antonacci vs Quintana — 0.119 · 87.5 · 6.7% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 41

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Quintana Edge — 0.127 · 88.9 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 42

· COL Troy Johnston COOL vs Martin Edge — 0.118 · 89.7 · 3.8% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Davis Martin — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Jose Quintana — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Moniak Carrigg Karros Tovar Murakami Vargas Grichuk Meidroth

Legend

attack side — vs Quintana fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Munetaka Murakami — · 73

Miguel Vargas — · 66

Hunter Goodman — · 64

Cole Carrigg — · 48

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof unknown

Park 1.05× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.05× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Davis Martin · RHP 0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman 64 C+ — COOL 6 0.276 89.7 9.7% 34.2%vs RHP 408 23.1% 20.0% 27.9% 28

2 Mickey Moniak 55 C — WARM 31 0.245 89.7 8.0% 22.7%vs RHP 417 16.5% 11.1% 18.0% 19

3 Cole Carrigg 48 D — WARM 61 0.191 87.9 6.1% 17.5%vs RHP 406 11.1% 25.0% 20.9% 38

4 Kyle Karros 47 D — WARM 69 0.164 89.6 7.4% 17.4%vs RHP 416 11.8% 18.2% 14.1% 31

5 Jake Mccarthy 43 D — COOL 99 0.188 85.2 6.0% 15.1%vs RHP 415 9.5% 0.0% 11.8% 41

6 Ezequiel Tovar 41 D — WARM 120 0.127 87.2 6.7% 14.3%vs RHP 403 8.2% 20.0% 14.0% 21

7 Tj Rumfield 39 D — COOL 128 0.149 84.3 5.8% 11.5%vs RHP 409 9.5% 0.0% 8.9% 37

8 Troy Johnston 33 D — COOL 161 0.118 89.7 3.8% 4.0%vs RHP 411 1.9% 0.0% 6.9% 13

vs Jose Quintana · LHP 1.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 73 B — · 1 0.263 93.9 13.5% 30.4%vs LHP 401 19.4% 25.0% 39.1% 18

2 Miguel Vargas 66 C+ — COOL 5 0.227 90.1 10.9% 26.7%vs LHP 393 19.9% 23.1% 26.9% 35

3 Randal Grichuk 63 C+ — · 9 0.279 91.5 9.9% 23.8%vs LHP 389 14.0% 16.7% 23.3% 29

4 Colson Montgomery 60 C+ — COOL 15 0.209 88.6 10.5% 29.4%vs LHP 397 20.1% 0.0% 19.6% 16

5 Andrew Benintendi 50 C — COOL 50 0.169 89.3 8.7% 11.5% 388 11.2% 0.0% 12.8% 15

6 Tristan Peters 48 D — COOL 63 0.175 87.5 7.0% 9.1%vs LHP 377 10.3% 0.0% 12.7% 19

7 Chase Meidroth 45 D — COOL 83 0.138 87.3 6.5% 25.0%vs LHP 382 8.6% 16.7% 11.0% 35

8 Braden Montgomery 42 D — WARM 116 0.127 88.9 6.3% 6.7%vs LHP 395 6.0% 0.0% 7.0% 25

9 Sam Antonacci 41 D — WARM 122 0.119 87.5 6.7% 0.0%vs LHP 390 6.7% 0.0% 8.0% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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