TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.25×

HOU @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 9:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.25× Wind 6 mph out 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

+13 ↑

6:40p

+14 ↑

7:40p

+13 ↑

8:40p

+13 ↑

9:40p

+13 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 7:40p at +14

Best of game Isaac Paredes conv 33 · vs Perkins ⟷ Zack Gelof conv 31 · vs Wesneski → edge: Zack Gelof

ATTACK Jack Perkins RHP · ATH

leak 91

1.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.56 · leakiest side of this game

1 Isaac Paredes — C ●●●●●

2 Christian Walker — C+ ●●●●○

3 Yainer Diaz — C ●●●●○

FADE Hayden Wesneski RHP · HOU

leak 8

0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.46 · stingy — thin edge

1 Zack Gelof — C+ ●●●●●

2 Lawrence Butler — C ●●●○○

3 Jeff Mcneil — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Zack Gelof: Match 28.6% · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· HOU Isaac Paredes vs Perkins — 0.183 · 86.0 · 6.4% 41.7% 24.7% F B O C 57

· ATH Zack Gelof ✶ HOT vs Wesneski — 0.225 · 89.6 · 8.2% 33.3% 28.6% F B O C+ 63

· HOU Christian Walker vs Perkins — 0.192 · 89.1 · 8.9% 27.3% 27.7% F B O C+ 61

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Perkins — 0.175 · 89.1 · 7.5% 27.3% 27.5% F B O C 56

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Perkins — 0.192 · 88.5 · 7.5% 16.7% 29.5% F B O C 58

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Wesneski Edge — 0.160 · 89.8 · 7.4% 16.7% 23.4% F B O C 51

· HOU Yordan Alvarez vs Perkins Edge — 0.285 · 94.3 · 11.6% 0.0% 39.9% F B O C+ 68

· HOU Taylor Trammell vs Perkins Edge — 0.152 · 88.5 · 10.2% 12.5% 23.0% F B O C 55

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Perkins — 0.177 · 88.6 · 9.7% 9.1% 14.8% F B O C 56

· ATH Shea Langeliers COOL vs Wesneski — 0.217 · 91.3 · 9.1% 0.0% 15.9% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· ATH Jeff Mcneil COOL vs Wesneski Edge — 0.107 · 86.4 · 3.2% 20.0% 9.7% F B O D 37

· ATH Carlos Cortes vs Wesneski Edge — 0.149 · 88.4 · 6.1% 11.1% 12.1% F B O D 45

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Wesneski — 0.126 · 90.9 · 7.1% 8.3% 8.8% F B O D 45

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Perkins — 0.115 · 85.9 · 4.2% 0.0% 13.1% F B O D 39

· HOU Jose Altuve vs Perkins — 0.148 · 85.6 · 5.9% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 43

· ATH Jonah Heim COOL vs Wesneski — 0.166 · 87.2 · 6.0% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 45

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Jack Perkins — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Hayden Wesneski — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alvarez Walker Peña Paredes Diaz Trammell Gelof Butler Mcneil

Legend

attack side — vs Perkins fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Isaac Paredes — · 57

Zack Gelof — · 63

Christian Walker — · 61

Yainer Diaz — · 56

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.25× Wind 6 mph out 73°F open

+13

↑

6 mph · out

73°F

6:40p

+14

↑

7 mph · out

69°F

7:40p · peak

+13

↑

7 mph · out

66°F

8:40p

+13

↑

7 mph · out

64°F

9:40p

+13

↑

7 mph · out

62°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.25× 73°F, wind 6 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jack Perkins · RHP 1.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.56 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 68 C+ — · 3 0.285 94.3 11.6% 25.4%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 39.9% 30

2 Christian Walker 61 C+ — WARM 11 0.192 89.1 8.9% 23.1%vs RHP 395 17.6% 27.3% 27.7% 23

3 Jeremy Peña 58 C — WARM 20 0.192 88.5 7.5% 29.0%vs RHP 389 15.2% 16.7% 29.5% 26

4 Isaac Paredes 57 C — · 26 0.183 86.0 6.4% 17.4%vs RHP 376 14.4% 41.7% 24.7% 36

5 Yainer Diaz 56 C — WARM 28 0.175 89.1 7.5% 31.6%vs RHP 387 12.5% 27.3% 27.5% 34

6 Cam Smith 56 C — COOL 29 0.177 88.6 9.7% 21.3%vs RHP 408 13.7% 9.1% 14.8% 22

7 Taylor Trammell 55 C — WARM 30 0.152 88.5 10.2% 19.1%vs RHP 406 11.1% 12.5% 23.0% 11

8 Jose Altuve 43 D — · 98 0.148 85.6 5.9% 17.4%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 35

9 Christian Vazquez 39 D — COOL 125 0.115 85.9 4.2% 17.1%vs RHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 5

vs Hayden Wesneski · RHP 0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.46 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zack Gelof ✶ 63 C+ — HOT 8 0.225 89.6 8.2% 24.6%vs RHP 399 21.9% 33.3% 28.6% 32

2 Shea Langeliers 58 C — COOL 23 0.217 91.3 9.1% 22.2%vs RHP 417 18.4% 0.0% 15.9% 30

3 Lawrence Butler 51 C — WARM 46 0.160 89.8 7.4% 24.1%vs RHP 408 10.0% 16.7% 23.4% 30

4 Carlos Cortes 45 D — · 82 0.149 88.4 6.1% 17.2%vs RHP 398 5.4% 11.1% 12.1% 20

5 Jonah Heim 45 D — COOL 85 0.166 87.2 6.0% 6.7%vs RHP 409 7.7% 0.0% 9.8% 22

6 Henry Bolte 45 D — WARM 86 0.126 90.9 7.1% 14.8%vs RHP 398 11.4% 8.3% 8.8% 24

7 Jeff Mcneil 37 D — COOL 139 0.107 86.4 3.2% 11.3%vs RHP 380 7.5% 20.0% 9.7% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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