TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ WSH

Suppressed air · 0.80×

NYM @ WSH

Nationals Park · 12:35p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.15× Wind 13 mph in 66°F Roof open

Hourly window

-6 ↑

12:35p

-5 ↑

1:35p

-5 ↑

2:35p

-6 ↑

3:35p

-5 ↑

4:35p

the 1:35p window peaks -5

Best of game Juan Soto conv 26 · vs Early ⟷ Dylan Crews conv 14 · vs Tong → edge: Juan Soto

ATTACK Connelly Early LHP · BOS

leak 86

1.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.56 · leakiest side of this game

1 Juan Soto — B ●●●●○

2 Carson Benge — C ●●●●○

3 Bo Bichette — D ●●○○○

FADE Jonah Tong RHP · NYM

leak 6

0.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.75 · stingy — thin edge

1 Dylan Crews — D ●●○○○

2 Cj Abrams — C+ ●●○○○

3 Daylen Lile — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Juan Soto: Match 29.3% · 14D pace 23.1% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Juan Soto ✶ vs Early — 0.248 · 92.5 · 11.9% 23.1% 29.3% F B O B 71

· — Carson Benge vs Early — 0.145 · 88.8 · 8.7% 30.8% 17.1% F B O C 54

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Tong Edge — 0.237 · 89.6 · 8.0% 0.0% 28.4% F B O C+ 60

· WSH Daylen Lile COOL vs Tong Edge — 0.185 · 88.7 · 7.8% 11.1% 15.5% F B O C 52

· — Francisco Lindor vs Early Edge — 0.197 · 91.6 · 9.4% 7.7% 15.4% F B O C 58

· WSH James Wood COOL vs Tong Edge — 0.242 · 95.3 · 10.8% 0.0% 18.2% F B O C+ 64

· — Francisco Alvarez vs Early Edge — 0.169 · 90.8 · 12.6% 0.0% 12.9% F B O C 54

· — Brett Baty vs Early — 0.139 · 90.3 · 10.2% 0.0% 8.0% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Tong — 0.145 · 90.1 · 7.7% 20.0% 8.9% F B O D 49

· — Bo Bichette COOL vs Early Edge — 0.127 · 89.6 · 8.1% 15.4% 10.6% F B O D 49

· — Marcus Semien COOL vs Early Edge — 0.125 · 86.7 · 7.7% 9.1% 9.2% F B O D 47

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Tong Edge — 0.165 · 88.0 · 5.4% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 45

· — A.J. Ewing COOL vs Early — 0.119 · 89.4 · 8.4% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 44

· WSH Jacob Young vs Tong — 0.140 · 87.7 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 42

· WSH Jorbit Vivas vs Tong Edge — 0.085 · 82.9 · 4.3% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 34

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Tong Edge — 0.033 · 85.0 · 2.4% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Jonah Tong — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Connelly Early — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Abrams Lile Crews Soto Benge

Legend

attack side — vs Early fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Juan Soto — · 71

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 12:35p · roof open

Park 1.15× Wind 13 mph in 66°F open

-6

↑

13 mph · in

64°F

12:35p

-5

↑

12 mph · in

65°F

1:35p · peak

-5

↑

12 mph · in

65°F

2:35p

-6

↑

13 mph · in

64°F

3:35p

-5

↑

13 mph · in

64°F

4:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.80× 66°F, wind 13 mph NNW (in) — modifier: -3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jonah Tong · RHP 0.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.75 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood 64 C+ — COOL 7 0.242 95.3 10.8% 34.4%vs RHP 413 21.9% 0.0% 18.2% 22

2 Cj Abrams 60 C+ — WARM 16 0.237 89.6 8.0% 28.1%vs RHP 397 30.8% 0.0% 28.4% 30

3 Daylen Lile 52 C — COOL 45 0.185 88.7 7.8% 14.2%vs RHP 401 11.5% 11.1% 15.5% 29

4 Dylan Crews 49 D — WARM 58 0.145 90.1 7.7% 12.2%vs RHP 404 14.3% 20.0% 8.9% 32

5 Keibert Ruiz 45 D — COOL 87 0.165 88.0 5.4% 10.1%vs RHP 380 10.3% 0.0% 9.4% 21

6 Jacob Young 42 D — WARM 118 0.140 87.7 6.0% 11.7%vs RHP 399 6.1% 0.0% 8.6% 20

7 Jorbit Vivas 34 D — WARM 157 0.085 82.9 4.3% 5.6%vs RHP 392 2.2% 0.0% 6.9% 19

8 Nasim Nunez 26 D — COOL 186 0.033 85.0 2.4% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 16

vs Connelly Early · LHP 1.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.56 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto ✶ 71 B — · 2 0.248 92.5 11.9% 14.6%vs LHP 403 20.7% 23.1% 29.3% 38

2 Francisco Lindor 58 C — · 24 0.197 91.6 9.4% 13.9%vs LHP 390 15.3% 7.7% 15.4% 38

3 Francisco Alvarez 54 C — WARM 34 0.169 90.8 12.6% 16.7%vs LHP 401 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 23

4 Carson Benge 54 C — WARM 36 0.145 88.8 8.7% 15.6%vs LHP 393 11.8% 30.8% 17.1% 39

5 Brett Baty 50 C — · 52 0.139 90.3 10.2% 0.0%vs LHP 402 6.7% 0.0% 8.0% 21

6 Bo Bichette 49 D — COOL 57 0.127 89.6 8.1% 21.2%vs LHP 392 11.0% 15.4% 10.6% 41

7 Marcus Semien 47 D — COOL 74 0.125 86.7 7.7% 10.8%vs LHP 391 9.8% 9.1% 9.2% 38

8 A.J. Ewing 44 D — COOL 90 0.119 89.4 8.4% 9.1%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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