TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ SF

Playable air · 1.06×

LAD @ SF

Oracle Park · 4:05p · 9 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 8 mph out 70°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

1:05p

+5 ↑

2:05p

+5 ↑

3:05p

+5 ↑

4:05p

+5 ↑

5:05p

the 2:05p window peaks +5

Best of game Andy Pages conv 20 · vs Wilkinson ⟷ Drew Gilbert conv 20 · vs Snell → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Matt Wilkinson LHP · SF

leak 3

1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.30 · leakiest side of this game

1 Andy Pages — D ●●●○○

2 Kyle Tucker — D ●●●○○

3 Mookie Betts — D ●●●○○

FADE Blake Snell LHP · LAD

leak 3

0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.35 · stingy — thin edge

1 Drew Gilbert — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: Match 13.8% · 14D pace 15.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Max Muncy ✶ COOL vs Wilkinson — 0.239 · 89.9 · 9.4% 15.4% 13.8% F B O C 53

· LAD Shohei Ohtani HOT vs Wilkinson — 0.243 · 93.4 · 10.7% 0.0% 14.9% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Wilkinson Edge — 0.184 · 88.8 · 7.4% 25.0% 14.4% F B O D 44

· SF Drew Gilbert HOT vs Snell — 0.158 · 86.8 · 4.5% 28.6% 10.7% F B O D 32

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Wilkinson — 0.155 · 88.6 · 6.7% 25.0% 10.2% F B O D 39

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Wilkinson Edge — 0.194 · 90.2 · 7.3% 16.7% 17.2% F B O D 44

· LAD Tommy Edman COOL vs Wilkinson Edge — 0.138 · 87.3 · 6.1% 16.7% 11.5% F B O D 36

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Wilkinson Edge — 0.152 · 90.3 · 8.5% 0.0% 14.4% F B O D 37

· LAD Freddie Freeman vs Wilkinson — 0.143 · 89.5 · 7.5% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Matt Wilkinson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Blake Snell — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Muncy Betts Pages Tucker Edman Gilbert

Legend

attack side — vs Wilkinson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 1:05p · roof open

Park 0.89× Wind 8 mph out 70°F open

↑

8 mph · out

69°F

1:05p

↑

9 mph · out

72°F

2:05p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

71°F

3:05p

↑

9 mph · out

71°F

4:05p

↑

9 mph · out

70°F

5:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 70°F, wind 8 mph SW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Matt Wilkinson · LHP 1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.30 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani 53 C — HOT 40 0.243 93.4 10.7% 30.8%vs LHP 407 17.5% 0.0% 14.9% 6

2 Max Muncy ✶ 53 C — COOL 41 0.239 89.9 9.4% 23.7%vs LHP 410 21.5% 15.4% 13.8% 32

3 Mookie Betts 44 D — WARM 95 0.194 90.2 7.3% 15.2%vs LHP 389 12.9% 16.7% 17.2% 40

4 Andy Pages 44 D — COOL 96 0.184 88.8 7.4% 20.5%vs LHP 390 14.6% 25.0% 14.4% 6

5 Kyle Tucker 39 D — COOL 130 0.155 88.6 6.7% 11.4%vs LHP 392 10.1% 25.0% 10.2% 36

6 Teoscar Hernandez 37 D — · 138 0.152 90.3 8.5% 21.9%vs LHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 27

7 Tommy Edman 36 D — COOL 149 0.138 87.3 6.1% 25.0%vs LHP 396 10.3% 16.7% 11.5% 32

8 Freddie Freeman 36 D — · 150 0.143 89.5 7.5% 13.2%vs LHP 399 9.0% 0.0% 5.7% 36

vs Blake Snell · LHP 0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.35 · 1 batter

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Drew Gilbert 32 D — HOT 166 0.158 86.8 4.5% 13.3% 392 7.9% 28.6% 10.7% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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