TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ PHI

Suppressed air · 0.76×

TB @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 7:15p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.09× Wind 14 mph in 62°F Roof open

Hourly window

-12 ↑

7:15p

-11 ↑

8:15p

-11 ↑

9:15p

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10:15p

-11 ↑

11:15p

the 8:15p window peaks -11

Best of game Kyle Schwarber conv 16 · vs Jax ⟷ Nick Fortes conv 23 · vs Proxy → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Griffin Jax RHP · TB

leak 93

1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.55 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Schwarber — C+ ●●○○○

2 Bryce Harper — C ●●○○○

3 Brandon Marsh — D ●●○○○

FADE PHI Bullpen Proxy

leak 67

1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nick Fortes — D ●●●●○

2 Jonathan Aranda — C ●●●○○

3 Cedric Mullins — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 23.9% · 14D pace 8.3% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Jonathan Aranda vs Proxy — 0.161 · 91.0 · 10.0% 20.0% 19.6% F B O C 53

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Jax Edge — 0.273 · 92.4 · 11.6% 8.3% 23.9% F B O C+ 67

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs Jax Edge — 0.216 · 90.0 · 9.4% 8.3% 20.0% F B O C 57

· — Junior Caminero COOL vs Proxy — 0.246 · 92.6 · 12.9% 7.7% 20.5% F B O C+ 66

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· — Nick Fortes vs Proxy — 0.110 · 85.6 · 2.3% 33.3% 13.0% F B O D 36

· — Cedric Mullins vs Proxy — 0.142 · 88.0 · 4.3% 20.0% 14.5% F B O D 42

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Jax Edge — 0.151 · 89.3 · 8.4% 11.1% 13.2% F B O D 47

· — Richie Palacios vs Proxy — 0.140 · 86.4 · 4.0% 11.1% 9.7% F B O D 39

· PHI Justin Crawford vs Jax Edge — 0.092 · 87.1 · 4.2% 10.0% 8.2% F B O D 34

· — Yandy Diaz COOL vs Proxy — 0.154 · 90.9 · 7.1% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 41

· — Jonny Deluca vs Proxy — 0.150 · 85.8 · 3.0% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 37

· PHI Trea Turner COOL vs Jax — 0.138 · 88.4 · 7.3% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 43

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Jax Edge — 0.141 · 89.3 · 7.2% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 42

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Jax — 0.126 · 89.6 · 6.8% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 38

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Jax — 0.136 · 90.6 · 7.3% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 43

· — Taylor Walls vs Proxy — 0.074 · 85.6 · 2.2% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 28

· — Chandler Simpson COOL vs Proxy — 0.050 · 83.6 · — 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 20

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Griffin Jax — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for PHI Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Caminero Aranda Mullins Fortes

Legend

attack side — vs Jax fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jonathan Aranda — · 53

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.09× Wind 14 mph in 62°F open

-12

↑

14 mph · in

62°F

7:15p

-11

↑

13 mph · in

62°F

8:15p · peak

-11

↑

13 mph · in

63°F

9:15p

-11

↑

13 mph · in

64°F

10:15p

-11

↑

13 mph · in

64°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.76× 62°F, wind 14 mph N (in) — modifier: -3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Griffin Jax · RHP 1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.55 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 67 C+ — COOL 4 0.273 92.4 11.6% 40.0%vs RHP 402 22.7% 8.3% 23.9% 27

2 Bryce Harper 57 C — COOL 27 0.216 90.0 9.4% 33.8%vs RHP 403 16.8% 8.3% 20.0% 35

3 Brandon Marsh 47 D — COOL 70 0.151 89.3 8.4% 17.6%vs RHP 391 10.8% 11.1% 13.2% 18

4 Trea Turner 43 D — COOL 106 0.138 88.4 7.3% 18.6%vs RHP 390 11.9% 0.0% 9.8% 33

5 Alec Bohm 43 D — WARM 107 0.136 90.6 7.3% 12.1%vs RHP 394 9.5% 0.0% 8.9% 37

6 Bryson Stott 42 D — COOL 113 0.141 89.3 7.2% 8.6%vs RHP 393 6.8% 0.0% 9.6% 35

7 J.T. Realmuto 38 D — WARM 132 0.126 89.6 6.8% 17.3%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 24

8 Justin Crawford 34 D — WARM 155 0.092 87.1 4.2% 3.9%vs RHP 395 2.6% 10.0% 8.2% 22

vs PHI Bullpen Proxy 1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero 66 C+ — COOL 10 0.246 92.6 12.9% 27.5% 413 24.2% 7.7% 20.5% 37

2 Jonathan Aranda 53 C — WARM 53 0.161 91.0 10.0% 14.9% 390 13.0% 20.0% 19.6% 20

3 Cedric Mullins 42 D — WARM 131 0.142 88.0 4.3% 8.8% 386 11.7% 20.0% 14.5% 13

4 Yandy Diaz 41 D — COOL 137 0.154 90.9 7.1% 16.9% 388 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 34

5 Richie Palacios 39 D — WARM 151 0.140 86.4 4.0% 11.6% 385 8.6% 11.1% 9.7% 20

6 Jonny Deluca 37 D — WARM 158 0.150 85.8 3.0% 9.5% 390 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 23

7 Nick Fortes 36 D — WARM 162 0.110 85.6 2.3% 6.8% 386 6.2% 33.3% 13.0% 13

8 Taylor Walls 28 D — WARM 188 0.074 85.6 2.2% 1.9% 383 0.8% 0.0% 7.6% 12

9 Chandler Simpson 20 D — COOL 196 0.050 83.6 — 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 44

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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