TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ DET

Suppressed air · 0.96×

PIT @ DET

Comerica Park · 1:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 4 mph slight_out 67°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

1:10p

+0 ↑

2:10p

+1 ↑

3:10p

+2 ↑

4:10p

+3 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 5:10p window peaks +3

Best of game Brandon Lowe conv 35 · vs Proxy ⟷ Spencer Torkelson conv 27 · vs Yates → edge: Brandon Lowe

ATTACK DET Bullpen Proxy · DET

leak 43

1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brandon Lowe — C+ ●●●●●

2 Oneil Cruz — C+ ●●●○○

3 Ryan O'Hearn — D ●●○○○

FADE Kirby Yates RHP

leak 13

0.68 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.58 · stingy — thin edge

1 Spencer Torkelson — C ●●●●○

2 Riley Greene — D ●●○○○

3 Hao-Yu Lee — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Brandon Lowe: Match 24.1% · 14D pace 45.5% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Brandon Lowe ✶ vs Proxy — 0.231 · 91.0 · 12.3% 45.5% 24.1% F B O C+ 62

· — Spencer Torkelson vs Yates — 0.197 · 89.5 · 8.8% 33.3% 20.2% F B O C 51

· PIT Oneil Cruz COOL vs Proxy — 0.209 · 94.1 · 15.3% 18.2% 22.1% F B O C+ 61

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· — Riley Greene COOL vs Yates Edge — 0.196 · 90.0 · 9.8% 16.7% 14.8% F B O D 49

· — Hao-Yu Lee vs Yates — 0.164 · 89.6 · 7.5% 18.2% 9.9% F B O D 42

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn COOL vs Proxy — 0.179 · 89.3 · 6.8% 9.1% 10.5% F B O D 43

· PIT Jake Mangum HOT vs Proxy — 0.089 · 85.9 · 2.3% 11.1% 6.6% F B O D 26

· — Dillon Dingler vs Yates — 0.206 · 88.8 · 8.0% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 46

· PIT Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Proxy — 0.161 · 90.9 · 11.3% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 46

· — Kevin Mcgonigle vs Yates Edge — 0.149 · 87.9 · 6.8% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 37

· PIT Konnor Griffin COOL vs Proxy — 0.123 · 87.9 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 34

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Proxy — 0.120 · 86.8 · 5.8% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 34

· — Gleyber Torres vs Yates — 0.103 · 86.2 · 6.2% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 31

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Proxy — 0.086 · 86.4 · 3.1% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 26

· — Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Yates Edge — 0.095 · 85.8 · 3.6% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 25

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Proxy — 0.065 · 86.3 · 2.4% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for DET Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Kirby Yates — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lowe Cruz Torkelson Greene Lee

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Brandon Lowe — · 62

Spencer Torkelson — · 51

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 4 mph slight_out 67°F open

↑

4 mph · slight_out

61°F

1:10p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

64°F

2:10p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

66°F

3:10p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

68°F

4:10p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

69°F

5:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.96× 67°F, wind 4 mph NNE (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs DET Bullpen Proxy 1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe ✶ 62 C+ — WARM 19 0.231 91.0 12.3% 21.2% 392 19.0% 45.5% 24.1% 27

2 Oneil Cruz 61 C+ — COOL 25 0.209 94.1 15.3% 34.5% 414 21.8% 18.2% 22.1% 27

3 Bryan Reynolds 46 D — COOL 108 0.161 90.9 11.3% 13.2% 407 10.3% 0.0% 9.0% 28

4 Ryan O'Hearn 43 D — COOL 124 0.179 89.3 6.8% 17.3% 385 12.9% 9.1% 10.5% 26

5 Konnor Griffin 34 D — COOL 174 0.123 87.9 6.3% 10.4% 401 4.7% 0.0% 7.0% 41

6 Spencer Horwitz 34 D — COOL 175 0.120 86.8 5.8% 8.6% 395 7.9% 0.0% 6.8% 15

7 Jake Mangum 26 D — HOT 192 0.089 85.9 2.3% 6.9% 394 4.7% 11.1% 6.6% 21

8 Nick Gonzales 26 D — WARM 193 0.086 86.4 3.1% 5.6% 397 5.5% 0.0% 6.5% 22

9 Jared Triolo 24 D — COOL 194 0.065 86.3 2.4% 5.4% 409 2.3% 0.0% 6.4% 10

vs Kirby Yates · RHP 0.68 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.58 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Spencer Torkelson 51 C — WARM 49 0.197 89.5 8.8% 26.8%vs RHP 390 16.2% 33.3% 20.2% 20

2 Riley Greene 49 D — COOL 56 0.196 90.0 9.8% 16.9%vs RHP 400 13.0% 16.7% 14.8% 31

3 Dillon Dingler 46 D — WARM 79 0.206 88.8 8.0% 26.1%vs RHP 398 16.9% 0.0% 12.4% 22

4 Hao-Yu Lee 42 D — · 117 0.164 89.6 7.5% 18.2%vs RHP 396 15.7% 18.2% 9.9% 37

5 Kevin Mcgonigle 37 D — WARM 142 0.149 87.9 6.8% 10.8%vs RHP 393 18.2% 0.0% 7.9% 39

6 Gleyber Torres 31 D — · 173 0.103 86.2 6.2% 12.5%vs RHP 393 7.7% 0.0% 6.7% 25

7 Zach Mckinstry 25 D — COOL 187 0.095 85.8 3.6% 5.4%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 12

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

13 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.