TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ KC

Neutral air · 1.04×

CLE @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 7:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 8 mph cross 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

6:10p

+1 ↑

7:10p

-1 ↑

8:10p

-1 ↑

9:10p

-1 ↑

10:10p

best window is early — 6:10p at +1

Best of game Carter Jensen conv 29 · vs Bibee ⟷ Travis Bazzana conv 21 · vs Wacha → edge: Carter Jensen

ATTACK Tanner Bibee RHP · CLE

leak 93

1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · leakiest side of this game

1 Carter Jensen — C+ ●●●●○

2 Vinnie Pasquantino — C ●●●●○

3 Michael Massey — D ●●○○○

FADE Michael Wacha RHP · KC

leak 24

1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · stingy — thin edge

1 Travis Bazzana — D ●●●○○

2 Angel Martinez — D ●●○○○

3 Steven Kwan — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Carter Jensen: Match 27.8% · 14D pace 30.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Carter Jensen ✶ COOL vs Bibee Edge — 0.215 · 91.3 · 9.8% 30.0% 27.8% F B O C+ 61

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino HOT vs Bibee Edge — 0.168 · 90.0 · 8.5% 33.3% 20.8% F B O C 53

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Bibee Edge — 0.202 · 93.2 · 10.3% 0.0% 16.9% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Wacha Edge — 0.158 · 87.7 · 5.9% 25.0% 16.8% F B O D 46

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Bibee Edge — 0.159 · 89.3 · 7.1% 16.7% 12.1% F B O D 46

· CLE Angel Martinez vs Wacha Edge — 0.215 · 87.6 · 7.2% 0.0% 23.5% F B O D 47

· KC Nick Loftin vs Bibee — 0.147 · 86.8 · 5.8% 12.5% 8.2% F B O D 42

· CLE Steven Kwan vs Wacha Edge — 0.063 · 83.8 · 1.7% 8.3% 6.5% F B O D 26

· CLE Chase Delauter COOL vs Wacha Edge — 0.165 · 91.4 · 6.6% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 42

· KC Bobby Witt COOL vs Bibee — 0.161 · 92.3 · 9.6% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 47

· KC Salvador Perez vs Bibee — 0.149 · 89.2 · 9.2% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 43

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Bibee Edge — 0.110 · 88.0 · 6.3% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 38

· CLE Patrick Bailey vs Wacha Edge — 0.112 · 90.3 · 6.9% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 39

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Wacha Edge — 0.136 · 88.5 · 5.4% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 36

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Wacha Edge — 0.127 · 87.0 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Michael Wacha — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Tanner Bibee — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bazzana Jensen Pasquantino Massey

Legend

attack side — vs Bibee fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Carter Jensen — · 61

Vinnie Pasquantino — · 53

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 6:10p · roof open

Park 1.04× Wind 8 mph cross 73°F open

↑

8 mph · cross

73°F

6:10p · peak

↑

7 mph · cross

72°F

7:10p

-1

↑

6 mph · cross

70°F

8:10p

-1

↑

4 mph · cross

69°F

9:10p

-1

↑

3 mph · in

67°F

10:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 73°F, wind 8 mph SE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Michael Wacha · RHP 1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 47 D — · 65 0.215 87.6 7.2% 22.4%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 23.5% 23

2 Travis Bazzana 46 D — WARM 77 0.158 87.7 5.9% 19.7%vs RHP 393 12.6% 25.0% 16.8% 29

3 Chase Delauter 42 D — COOL 109 0.165 91.4 6.6% 19.4%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 27

4 Patrick Bailey 39 D — · 129 0.112 90.3 6.9% 15.2%vs RHP 409 6.5% 0.0% 7.8% 14

5 Jose Ramirez 36 D — COOL 143 0.136 88.5 5.4% 9.2%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 36

6 Brayan Rocchio 36 D — COOL 147 0.127 87.0 4.5% 12.0%vs RHP 384 8.1% 0.0% 7.4% 28

7 Steven Kwan 26 D — WARM 185 0.063 83.8 1.7% 3.9%vs RHP 367 2.0% 8.3% 6.5% 36

vs Tanner Bibee · RHP 1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Carter Jensen ✶ 61 C+ — COOL 13 0.215 91.3 9.8% 20.2%vs RHP 399 18.0% 30.0% 27.8% 23

2 Jac Caglianone 55 C — COOL 32 0.202 93.2 10.3% 28.6%vs RHP 416 13.5% 0.0% 16.9% 15

3 Vinnie Pasquantino 53 C — HOT 38 0.168 90.0 8.5% 16.7%vs RHP 396 13.1% 33.3% 20.8% 30

4 Bobby Witt 47 D — COOL 73 0.161 92.3 9.6% 15.2%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 34

5 Michael Massey 46 D — COOL 78 0.159 89.3 7.1% 11.2%vs RHP 393 8.1% 16.7% 12.1% 36

6 Salvador Perez 43 D — WARM 100 0.149 89.2 9.2% 16.9%vs RHP 407 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 26

7 Nick Loftin 42 D — · 114 0.147 86.8 5.8% 10.7%vs RHP 395 9.2% 12.5% 8.2% 24

8 Isaac Collins 38 D — COOL 135 0.110 88.0 6.3% 7.3%vs RHP 394 4.7% 0.0% 8.3% 11

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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