TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ SD

Neutral air · 0.99×

AZ @ SD

Petco Park · 8:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 5 mph cross 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

5:40p

-2 ↑

6:40p

-2 ↑

7:40p

-2 ↑

8:40p

-1 ↑

9:40p

conditions build late — the 9:40p window peaks -1

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 37 · vs Buehler ⟷ Manny Machado conv 20 · vs Proxy → edge: Nolan Arenado

ATTACK Walker Buehler RHP · SD

leak 81

1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado — C ●●●●●

2 Gabriel Moreno — D ●●●●○

3 Corbin Carroll — C ●●●○○

FADE AZ Bullpen Proxy · AZ

leak 42

1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Manny Machado — C ●●●○○

2 Jackson Merrill — C ●●○○○

3 Ty France — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Nolan Arenado: Match 24.3% · 14D pace 50.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· AZ Nolan Arenado ✶ vs Buehler — 0.215 · 85.1 · 7.7% 50.0% 24.3% F B O C 53

· SD Manny Machado COOL vs Proxy — 0.188 · 90.1 · 9.6% 23.1% 16.2% F B O C 50

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Buehler Edge — 0.232 · 91.8 · 10.1% 16.7% 18.7% F B O C 54

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Proxy — 0.187 · 91.6 · 12.4% 15.4% 11.7% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Buehler — 0.177 · 89.3 · 8.0% 33.3% 18.4% F B O D 47

· SD Ty France COOL vs Proxy — 0.211 · 91.7 · 9.3% 9.1% 12.0% F B O D 49

· AZ Tim Tawa COOL vs Buehler — 0.159 · 90.7 · 9.5% 8.3% 10.7% F B O D 43

· SD Fernando Tatis vs Proxy — 0.181 · 93.0 · 12.8% 0.0% 17.4% F B O D 47

· SD Jake Cronenworth vs Proxy — 0.094 · 87.1 · 3.6% 7.7% 7.3% F B O D 27

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Proxy — 0.108 · 89.6 · 5.5% 8.3% 6.6% F B O D 32

· AZ Jose Fernandez COOL vs Buehler — 0.089 · 87.8 · 5.6% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 30

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Buehler Edge — 0.186 · 90.2 · 8.8% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 45

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Buehler — 0.112 · 86.6 · 7.3% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 34

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Buehler Edge — 0.113 · 87.7 · 5.1% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 30

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Buehler Edge — 0.124 · 87.4 · 5.2% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 31

· SD Freddy Fermin COOL vs Proxy — 0.110 · 87.5 · 3.9% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Walker Buehler — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for AZ Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Carroll Arenado Moreno Merrill Machado

Legend

attack side — vs Buehler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Nolan Arenado — · 53

Gabriel Moreno — · 47

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 5:40p · roof open

Park 0.90× Wind 5 mph cross 83°F open

-2

↑

5 mph · cross

83°F

5:40p

-2

↑

3 mph · slight_out

80°F

6:40p

-2

↑

2 mph · slight_out

77°F

7:40p

-2

↑

1 mph · slight_out

76°F

8:40p

-1

↑

2 mph · slight_out

75°F

9:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 0.99× 83°F, wind 5 mph W (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Walker Buehler · RHP 1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 54 C — · 35 0.232 91.8 10.1% 17.0%vs RHP 402 13.8% 16.7% 18.7% 30

2 Nolan Arenado ✶ 53 C — WARM 37 0.215 85.1 7.7% 22.5%vs RHP 391 18.8% 50.0% 24.3% 32

3 Gabriel Moreno 47 D — · 66 0.177 89.3 8.0% 15.9%vs RHP 400 12.6% 33.3% 18.4% 39

4 Ketel Marte 45 D — COOL 84 0.186 90.2 8.8% 13.5%vs RHP 408 13.5% 0.0% 10.6% 40

5 Tim Tawa 43 D — COOL 103 0.159 90.7 9.5% 22.7%vs RHP 397 10.0% 8.3% 10.7% 27

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 34 D — COOL 154 0.112 86.6 7.3% 9.7%vs RHP 415 3.3% 0.0% 9.2% 3

7 Ildemaro Vargas 31 D — COOL 171 0.124 87.4 5.2% 5.9%vs RHP 396 4.3% 0.0% 6.6% 15

8 Jose Fernandez 30 D — COOL 176 0.089 87.8 5.6% 21.4%vs RHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 7

9 Geraldo Perdomo 30 D — COOL 178 0.113 87.7 5.1% 8.9%vs RHP 383 5.6% 0.0% 7.0% 33

vs AZ Bullpen Proxy 1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jackson Merrill 52 C — WARM 59 0.187 91.6 12.4% 16.0% 411 15.8% 15.4% 11.7% 35

2 Manny Machado 50 C — COOL 75 0.188 90.1 9.6% 17.8% 398 17.6% 23.1% 16.2% 39

3 Ty France 49 D — COOL 80 0.211 91.7 9.3% 19.6% 390 14.7% 9.1% 12.0% 33

4 Fernando Tatis 47 D — WARM 97 0.181 93.0 12.8% 20.0% 408 0.0% 0.0% 17.4% 37

5 Xander Bogaerts 32 D — WARM 181 0.108 89.6 5.5% 10.6% 404 7.4% 8.3% 6.6% 30

6 Freddy Fermin 28 D — COOL 189 0.110 87.5 3.9% 6.2% 382 1.8% 0.0% 6.1% 8

7 Jake Cronenworth 27 D — WARM 190 0.094 87.1 3.6% 8.3% 377 3.7% 7.7% 7.3% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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