TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ TOR

Suppressed air · 0.95×

CIN @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 3:07p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 6 mph in 72°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-7 ↑

3:07p

-7 ↑

4:07p

-7 ↑

5:07p

-7 ↑

6:07p

-7 ↑

7:07p

conditions hold steady across the window · -7 FIT

Best of game Kazuma Okamoto conv 18 · vs Lowder ⟷ Elly De La Cruz conv 28 · vs Yesavage → edge: Elly De La Cruz

ATTACK Rhett Lowder RHP · CIN

leak 87

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.16 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kazuma Okamoto — C ●●●○○

2 George Springer — D ●○○○○

3 Vladimir Guerrero — D ●○○○○

FADE Trey Yesavage RHP · TOR

leak 29

1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · stingy — thin edge

1 Elly De La Cruz — C+ ●●●●○

2 Dane Myers — D ●●●○○

3 Eugenio Suarez — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Elly De La Cruz: Match 24.8% · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Elly De La Cruz ✶ vs Yesavage Edge — 0.235 · 94.7 · 10.3% 30.8% 24.8% F B O C+ 60

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Lowder — 0.220 · 90.6 · 11.2% 15.4% 20.6% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· CIN Dane Myers vs Yesavage — 0.120 · 89.2 · 5.6% 22.2% 14.8% F B O D 38

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Yesavage — 0.216 · 88.5 · 8.9% 0.0% 28.2% F B O D 47

· CIN Sal Stewart vs Yesavage — 0.198 · 90.4 · 8.9% 7.7% 14.3% F B O D 49

· TOR George Springer COOL vs Lowder — 0.156 · 88.6 · 7.9% 8.3% 10.2% F B O D 43

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Yesavage Edge — 0.196 · 88.4 · 7.8% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 44

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Yesavage — 0.164 · 91.0 · 8.9% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 43

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Yesavage — 0.150 · 87.9 · 7.7% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 39

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero vs Lowder — 0.098 · 90.4 · 8.1% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 36

· TOR Nathan Lukes COOL vs Lowder Edge — 0.110 · 87.0 · 5.0% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 33

· TOR Ernie Clement vs Lowder — 0.107 · 84.2 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 31

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Lowder Edge — 0.117 · 85.4 · 5.8% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 32

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Lowder — 0.103 · 86.3 · 5.1% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Trey Yesavage — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Rhett Lowder — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Cruz Suarez Myers Okamoto

Legend

attack side — vs Lowder fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Elly De La Cruz — · 60

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 3:07p · roof retractable

Park 0.95× Wind 6 mph in 72°F retractable

-7

↑

6 mph · in

69°F

3:07p · peak

-7

↑

6 mph · in

69°F

4:07p

-7

↑

6 mph · in

70°F

5:07p

-7

↑

6 mph · in

68°F

6:07p

-7

↑

6 mph · in

66°F

7:07p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.95× 72°F, wind 6 mph NNE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Trey Yesavage · RHP 1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz ✶ 60 C+ — WARM 14 0.235 94.7 10.3% 26.0%vs RHP 402 19.3% 30.8% 24.8% 28

2 Sal Stewart 49 D — WARM 54 0.198 90.4 8.9% 23.5%vs RHP 397 16.6% 7.7% 14.3% 30

3 Eugenio Suarez 47 D — · 64 0.216 88.5 8.9% 30.2%vs RHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 28.2% 24

4 Jj Bleday 44 D — COOL 88 0.196 88.4 7.8% 20.2%vs RHP 389 15.4% 0.0% 11.5% 30

5 Tyler Stephenson 43 D — · 102 0.164 91.0 8.9% 20.0%vs RHP 392 9.4% 0.0% 11.4% 26

6 Matt Mclain 39 D — COOL 127 0.150 87.9 7.7% 11.5%vs RHP 391 10.0% 0.0% 9.3% 19

7 Dane Myers 38 D — WARM 134 0.120 89.2 5.6% 17.4%vs RHP 387 8.1% 22.2% 14.8% 23

vs Rhett Lowder · RHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.16 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 58 C — COOL 22 0.220 90.6 11.2% 25.6%vs RHP 400 19.0% 15.4% 20.6% 31

2 George Springer 43 D — COOL 105 0.156 88.6 7.9% 18.0%vs RHP 394 10.6% 8.3% 10.2% 28

3 Vladimir Guerrero 36 D — WARM 146 0.098 90.4 8.1% 8.8%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 27

4 Nathan Lukes 33 D — COOL 160 0.110 87.0 5.0% 14.5%vs RHP 382 7.1% 0.0% 7.5% 30

5 Andres Gimenez 32 D — COOL 165 0.117 85.4 5.8% 8.8%vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 23

6 Ernie Clement 31 D — WARM 169 0.107 84.2 4.5% 5.1%vs RHP 376 6.1% 0.0% 7.1% 34

7 Myles Straw 31 D — COOL 170 0.103 86.3 5.1% 4.0%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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