TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ MIN

Suppressed air · 0.66×

TEX @ MIN

Target Field · 4:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 10 mph in 63°F Roof open

Hourly window

-12 ↑

3:10p

-12 ↑

4:10p

-12 ↑

5:10p

-12 ↑

6:10p

-11 ↑

7:10p

conditions build late — the 7:10p window peaks -11

Best of game Kody Clemens conv 11 · vs Eovaldi ⟷ Josh Jung conv 20 · vs Ober → edge: Corey Seager

ATTACK Nathan Eovaldi RHP · TEX

leak 84

1.54 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.83 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kody Clemens — C ●●○○○

2 Brooks Lee — D ●●○○○

3 Josh Bell — D ●○○○○

FADE Bailey Ober RHP · MIN

leak 66

1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.26 · stingy — thin edge

1 Josh Jung — D ●●●○○

2 Corey Seager — C ●●○○○

3 Wyatt Langford — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Corey Seager: Match 15.4% · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Corey Seager ✶ vs Ober Edge — 0.196 · 91.7 · 11.7% 16.7% 15.4% F B O C 55

· MIN Kody Clemens COOL vs Eovaldi Edge — 0.220 · 91.9 · 9.7% 8.3% 14.6% F B O C 53

· TEX Jake Burger vs Ober — 0.191 · 90.1 · 10.7% 8.3% 11.6% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· TEX Josh Jung vs Ober — 0.163 · 90.7 · 8.2% 25.0% 15.9% F B O D 47

· MIN Brooks Lee COOL vs Eovaldi Edge — 0.177 · 88.1 · 5.9% 8.3% 11.8% F B O D 42

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs Ober — 0.188 · 88.6 · 8.7% 8.3% 11.7% F B O D 47

· MIN Josh Bell vs Eovaldi Edge — 0.160 · 89.8 · 8.9% 8.3% 10.5% F B O D 44

· MIN Luke Keaschall COOL vs Eovaldi — 0.115 · 85.4 · 5.7% 8.3% 8.3% F B O D 33

· MIN Ryan Jeffers COOL vs Eovaldi — 0.206 · 88.7 · 9.3% 0.0% 15.6% F B O D 48

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Eovaldi — 0.151 · 89.7 · 9.4% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 43

· TEX Ezequiel Duran COOL vs Ober — 0.163 · 88.9 · 7.5% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 42

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Ober Edge — 0.144 · 92.0 · 9.2% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 42

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Eovaldi Edge — 0.093 · 89.4 · 7.3% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 32

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Ober Edge — 0.120 · 87.6 · 6.8% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 36

· TEX Nicky Lopez COOL vs Ober Edge — 0.039 · 84.7 · — 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 18

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Bailey Ober — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Nathan Eovaldi — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Seager Jung

Legend

attack side — vs Eovaldi fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 3:10p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 10 mph in 63°F open

-12

↑

10 mph · in

63°F

3:10p

-12

↑

10 mph · in

63°F

4:10p

-12

↑

10 mph · in

62°F

5:10p

-12

↑

10 mph · in

62°F

6:10p

-11

↑

9 mph · in

61°F

7:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.66× 63°F, wind 10 mph SE (in) — modifier: -3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bailey Ober · RHP 1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.26 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corey Seager ✶ 55 C — · 33 0.196 91.7 11.7% 22.2%vs RHP 396 18.0% 16.7% 15.4% 33

2 Jake Burger 51 C — · 47 0.191 90.1 10.7% 20.0%vs RHP 402 15.9% 8.3% 11.6% 28

3 Josh Jung 47 D — WARM 68 0.163 90.7 8.2% 16.4%vs RHP 380 11.8% 25.0% 15.9% 35

4 Wyatt Langford 47 D — WARM 71 0.188 88.6 8.7% 22.4%vs RHP 401 14.2% 8.3% 11.7% 21

5 Ezequiel Duran 42 D — COOL 112 0.163 88.9 7.5% 19.7%vs RHP 397 12.0% 0.0% 9.8% 30

6 Brandon Nimmo 42 D — COOL 115 0.144 92.0 9.2% 11.1%vs RHP 404 8.8% 0.0% 8.0% 23

7 Evan Carter 36 D — COOL 148 0.120 87.6 6.8% 11.7%vs RHP 380 7.0% 0.0% 7.3% 17

8 Nicky Lopez 18 D — COOL 195 0.039 84.7 — 4.3%vs RHP 397 1.6% 0.0% 6.5% 14

vs Nathan Eovaldi · RHP 1.54 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.83 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 53 C — COOL 39 0.220 91.9 9.7% 20.2%vs RHP 390 17.9% 8.3% 14.6% 32

2 Ryan Jeffers 48 D — COOL 60 0.206 88.7 9.3% 22.9%vs RHP 397 14.6% 0.0% 15.6% 18

3 Josh Bell 44 D — · 92 0.160 89.8 8.9% 19.7%vs RHP 407 11.5% 8.3% 10.5% 33

4 Royce Lewis 43 D — COOL 104 0.151 89.7 9.4% 14.9%vs RHP 402 12.2% 0.0% 10.3% 28

5 Brooks Lee 42 D — COOL 110 0.177 88.1 5.9% 20.4%vs RHP 375 15.6% 8.3% 11.8% 38

6 Luke Keaschall 33 D — COOL 159 0.115 85.4 5.7% 9.2%vs RHP 378 7.1% 8.3% 8.3% 39

7 Victor Caratini 32 D — COOL 163 0.093 89.4 7.3% 13.2%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.