TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ SEA

Suppressed air · 0.92×

LAA @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 9:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 8 mph cross 57°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-5 ↑

6:40p

-5 ↑

7:40p

-6 ↑

8:40p

-6 ↑

9:40p

-6 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at -5

Best of game Randy Arozarena conv 24 · vs Johnson ⟷ Vaughn Grissom conv 19 · vs Anderson → edge: Randy Arozarena

ATTACK Ryan Johnson RHP · LAA

leak 82

1.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · leakiest side of this game

1 Randy Arozarena — C ●●●●○

2 Cal Raleigh — C ●●●○○

3 Dominic Canzone — C ●●○○○

FADE Kade Anderson LHP · SEA

leak 61

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · stingy — thin edge

1 Vaughn Grissom — D ●●●○○

2 Zach Neto — C ●●○○○

3 Mike Trout — C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Randy Arozarena: Match 23.7% · 14D pace 25.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Randy Arozarena ✶ HOT vs Johnson — 0.200 · 90.8 · 8.7% 25.0% 23.7% F B O C 58

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Johnson Edge — 0.190 · 90.1 · 11.6% 16.7% 20.6% F B O C 59

· SEA Dominic Canzone vs Johnson Edge — 0.216 · 91.2 · 10.8% 16.7% 15.6% F B O C 59

· LAA Zach Neto vs Anderson Edge — 0.193 · 89.9 · 9.8% 15.4% 12.6% F B O C 52

· LAA Mike Trout vs Anderson Edge — 0.181 · 90.1 · 11.5% 7.7% 11.7% F B O C 52

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Johnson — 0.156 · 90.3 · 9.2% 8.3% 10.6% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· LAA Vaughn Grissom vs Anderson Edge — 0.149 · 87.6 · 7.4% 23.1% 14.6% F B O D 44

· SEA Cole Young vs Johnson Edge — 0.136 · 88.3 · 6.9% 10.0% 9.3% F B O D 44

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Anderson — 0.155 · 88.8 · 8.6% 8.3% 9.0% F B O D 44

· SEA J.P. Crawford vs Johnson Edge — 0.126 · 87.7 · 7.6% 0.0% 14.5% F B O D 41

· LAA Oswald Peraza vs Anderson Edge — 0.109 · 87.6 · 7.0% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 36

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Johnson Edge — 0.089 · 87.1 · 6.5% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 37

· LAA Wade Meckler vs Anderson — 0.079 · 87.2 · 4.9% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Kade Anderson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Ryan Johnson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Neto Grissom Raleigh Canzone Arozarena

Legend

attack side — vs Johnson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Randy Arozarena — · 58

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 1.02× Wind 8 mph cross 57°F retractable

-5

↑

8 mph · cross

57°F

6:40p · peak

-5

↑

8 mph · cross

55°F

7:40p

-6

↑

8 mph · cross

54°F

8:40p

-6

↑

8 mph · cross

53°F

9:40p

-6

↑

7 mph · cross

52°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.92× 57°F, wind 8 mph N (cross) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kade Anderson · LHP 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 52 C — · 43 0.181 90.1 11.5% 18.2%vs LHP 409 13.0% 7.7% 11.7% 25

2 Zach Neto 52 C — · 44 0.193 89.9 9.8% 18.6%vs LHP 405 16.4% 15.4% 12.6% 25

3 Vaughn Grissom 44 D — · 89 0.149 87.6 7.4% 10.3%vs LHP 389 10.8% 23.1% 14.6% 35

4 Josh Lowe 44 D — WARM 94 0.155 88.8 8.6% 0.0%vs LHP 393 9.7% 8.3% 9.0% 18

5 Oswald Peraza 36 D — WARM 144 0.109 87.6 7.0% 22.7%vs LHP 386 4.4% 0.0% 9.0% 9

6 Wade Meckler 31 D — WARM 168 0.079 87.2 4.9% 6.2% 396 4.3% 0.0% 7.7% 36

vs Ryan Johnson · RHP 1.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cal Raleigh 59 C — WARM 17 0.190 90.1 11.6% 15.7%vs RHP 386 15.9% 16.7% 20.6% 25

2 Dominic Canzone 59 C — · 18 0.216 91.2 10.8% 22.1%vs RHP 401 14.9% 16.7% 15.6% 36

3 Randy Arozarena ✶ 58 C — HOT 21 0.200 90.8 8.7% 22.4%vs RHP 389 15.5% 25.0% 23.7% 33

4 Julio Rodríguez 51 C — · 48 0.156 90.3 9.2% 19.4%vs RHP 407 14.6% 8.3% 10.6% 37

5 Cole Young 44 D — · 93 0.136 88.3 6.9% 17.3%vs RHP 384 10.7% 10.0% 9.3% 29

6 J.P. Crawford 41 D — WARM 119 0.126 87.7 7.6% 20.4%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 14.5% 39

7 Josh Naylor 37 D — · 141 0.089 87.1 6.5% 9.9%vs RHP 392 5.1% 0.0% 8.1% 43

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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