TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ CHC

Wrigley Field is live · 1.12×

MIA @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 2:20p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.12× Wind 6 mph in 67°F Roof open

Hourly window

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the 1:20p window peaks -2

Best of game Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 31 · vs Phillips ⟷ Kyle Stowers conv 17 · vs Boyd → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Tyler Phillips RHP · MIA

leak 72

1.26 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.38 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong — B ●●●●●

2 Dansby Swanson — C ●●●●○

3 Alex Bregman — C ●●●○○

FADE Matthew Boyd LHP · CHC

leak 13

1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Stowers — C+ ●●●○○

2 Javier Sanoja — D ●●○○○

3 Jakob Marsee — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 34.2% · 14D pace 27.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Phillips Edge — 0.297 · 90.6 · 10.3% 27.3% 34.2% F B O B 74

· CHC Dansby Swanson COOL vs Phillips — 0.188 · 89.5 · 7.6% 25.0% 23.5% F B O C 55

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Phillips — 0.190 · 88.1 · 6.9% 22.2% 20.3% F B O C 54

· CHC Michael Busch vs Phillips Edge — 0.155 · 88.4 · 8.5% 18.2% 16.9% F B O C 53

· MIA Kyle Stowers vs Boyd — 0.220 · 92.5 · 10.2% 18.2% 16.8% F B O C+ 61

· CHC Ian Happ vs Phillips Edge — 0.193 · 89.3 · 9.5% 10.0% 15.0% F B O C 57

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Phillips — 0.202 · 88.6 · 9.1% 10.0% 14.9% F B O C 57

· MIA Heriberto Hernández COOL vs Boyd Edge — 0.208 · 91.2 · 10.1% 0.0% 18.0% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Boyd Edge — 0.161 · 86.9 · 4.7% 18.2% 11.8% F B O D 45

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Boyd — 0.126 · 87.3 · 5.4% 18.2% 11.4% F B O D 43

· MIA Otto Lopez vs Boyd Edge — 0.134 · 89.1 · 7.0% 9.1% 8.8% F B O D 44

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Boyd Edge — 0.091 · 86.8 · 5.1% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 36

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Phillips — 0.120 · 86.7 · 6.4% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 42

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Phillips — 0.090 · 86.0 · 3.3% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Matthew Boyd — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Tyler Phillips — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stowers Sanoja Marsee Crow-Armstrong Swanson Bregman Busch

Legend

attack side — vs Phillips fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Pete Crow-Armstrong — · 74

Dansby Swanson — · 55

Alex Bregman — · 54

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 1:20p · roof open

Park 1.12× Wind 6 mph in 67°F open

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6 mph · in

64°F

1:20p · peak

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6 mph · in

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2:20p

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6 mph · in

65°F

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65°F

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arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.12× 67°F, wind 6 mph ENE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Matthew Boyd · LHP 1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 61 C+ — · 16 0.220 92.5 10.2% 13.3%vs LHP 399 15.2% 18.2% 16.8% 32

2 Heriberto Hernández 53 C — COOL 53 0.208 91.2 10.1% 31.2%vs LHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 18.0% 33

3 Javier Sanoja 45 D — WARM 96 0.161 86.9 4.7% 13.6%vs LHP 385 8.8% 18.2% 11.8% 39

4 Otto Lopez 44 D — · 104 0.134 89.1 7.0% 8.8%vs LHP 398 6.5% 9.1% 8.8% 36

5 Jakob Marsee 43 D — COOL 110 0.126 87.3 5.4% 8.3%vs LHP 386 8.7% 18.2% 11.4% 26

6 Xavier Edwards 36 D — COOL 152 0.091 86.8 5.1% 18.2%vs LHP 396 3.6% 0.0% 9.9% 12

vs Tyler Phillips · RHP 1.26 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.38 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 74 B — · 1 0.297 90.6 10.3% 30.1%vs RHP 397 23.4% 27.3% 34.2% 36

2 Ian Happ 57 C — · 37 0.193 89.3 9.5% 23.8%vs RHP 401 16.8% 10.0% 15.0% 26

3 Seiya Suzuki 57 C — WARM 38 0.202 88.6 9.1% 18.7%vs RHP 408 15.7% 10.0% 14.9% 31

4 Dansby Swanson 55 C — COOL 41 0.188 89.5 7.6% 18.8%vs RHP 404 12.6% 25.0% 23.5% 10

5 Alex Bregman 54 C — WARM 48 0.190 88.1 6.9% 18.8%vs RHP 389 13.1% 22.2% 20.3% 28

6 Michael Busch 53 C — WARM 57 0.155 88.4 8.5% 12.5%vs RHP 404 13.4% 18.2% 16.9% 25

7 Carson Kelly 42 D — COOL 119 0.120 86.7 6.4% 9.1%vs RHP 403 8.1% 0.0% 8.5% 24

8 Nico Hoerner 34 D — WARM 163 0.090 86.0 3.3% 6.1%vs RHP 383 5.2% 0.0% 8.1% 40

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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