TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ NYY

Suppressed air · 0.98×

TB @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 7:05p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.09× Wind 9 mph in 64°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

7:05p

-4 ↑

8:05p

-5 ↑

9:05p

-5 ↑

10:05p

-5 ↑

11:05p

best window is early — 8:05p at -4

Best of game Ben Rice conv 37 · vs Seymour ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 20 · vs Schlittler → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Ian Seymour LHP · TB

leak 98

1.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.82 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ben Rice — B ●●●●●

2 Cody Bellinger — C ●●●●●

3 Austin Wells — C ●●●●○

FADE Cam Schlittler RHP · NYY

leak 83

0.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero — C+ ●●●○○

2 Jonathan Aranda — D ●●●○○

3 Nick Fortes — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: Match 39.9% · 14D pace 33.3% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Seymour — 0.273 · 91.8 · 11.9% 33.3% 39.9% F B O B 73

· NYY Cody Bellinger vs Seymour — 0.168 · 89.1 · 8.2% 41.7% 22.1% F B O C 54

· NYY Austin Wells HOT vs Seymour — 0.138 · 89.4 · 8.6% 30.0% 18.7% F B O C 50

· TB Junior Caminero COOL vs Schlittler — 0.248 · 92.6 · 9.7% 15.4% 24.2% F B O C+ 61

· NYY Jazz Chisholm COOL vs Seymour — 0.169 · 90.4 · 9.1% 0.0% 17.7% F B O C 50

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Seymour Edge — 0.202 · 86.7 · 10.1% 0.0% 17.6% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· TB Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Schlittler Edge — 0.161 · 91.0 · 8.6% 20.0% 17.9% F B O D 49

· TB Nick Fortes vs Schlittler — 0.110 · 85.6 · 3.9% 16.7% 13.2% F B O D 34

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Schlittler Edge — 0.142 · 88.0 · 5.7% 14.3% 10.7% F B O D 40

· TB Richie Palacios vs Schlittler Edge — 0.140 · 86.4 · 5.5% 11.1% 9.3% F B O D 38

· TB Yandy Diaz COOL vs Schlittler — 0.154 · 90.9 · 7.4% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 39

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs Seymour Edge — 0.135 · 83.9 · 6.5% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 39

· TB Jonny Deluca vs Schlittler — 0.152 · 85.8 · 4.7% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 37

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Seymour — 0.142 · 90.3 · 9.5% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 46

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Schlittler Edge — 0.072 · 85.5 · 3.7% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 27

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Schlittler Edge — 0.050 · 83.6 · — 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 18

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Cam Schlittler — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Ian Seymour — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Aranda Fortes Rice Bellinger Wells

Legend

attack side — vs Seymour fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Ben Rice — · 73

Cody Bellinger — · 54

Austin Wells — · 50

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.09× Wind 9 mph in 64°F open

-5

↑

9 mph · in

62°F

7:05p

-4

↑

8 mph · in

61°F

8:05p · peak

-5

↑

9 mph · in

60°F

9:05p

-5

↑

9 mph · in

59°F

10:05p

-5

↑

9 mph · in

58°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.98× 64°F, wind 9 mph NE (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Cam Schlittler · RHP 0.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero 61 C+ — COOL 13 0.248 92.6 9.7% 41.2%vs RHP 413 24.5% 15.4% 24.2% 38

2 Jonathan Aranda 49 D — COOL 72 0.161 91.0 8.6% 18.8%vs RHP 390 13.1% 20.0% 17.9% 24

3 Cedric Mullins 40 D — COOL 128 0.142 88.0 5.7% 15.8%vs RHP 386 11.7% 14.3% 10.7% 17

4 Yandy Diaz 39 D — COOL 131 0.154 90.9 7.4% 24.1%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 35

5 Richie Palacios 38 D — WARM 138 0.140 86.4 5.5% 19.6%vs RHP 385 8.7% 11.1% 9.3% 21

6 Jonny Deluca 37 D — WARM 146 0.152 85.8 4.7% 21.9%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 24

7 Nick Fortes 34 D — WARM 160 0.110 85.6 3.9% 19.1%vs RHP 390 5.0% 16.7% 13.2% 15

8 Taylor Walls 27 D — COOL 180 0.072 85.5 3.7% 2.2%vs RHP 383 0.8% 0.0% 6.7% 10

9 Chandler Simpson 18 D — COOL 184 0.050 83.6 — 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 45

vs Ian Seymour · LHP 1.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.82 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 73 B — · 3 0.273 91.8 11.9% 31.4%vs LHP 392 24.2% 33.3% 39.9% 35

2 Paul Goldschmidt 55 C — COOL 43 0.202 86.7 10.1% 32.4%vs LHP 390 15.7% 0.0% 17.6% 11

3 Cody Bellinger 54 C — · 47 0.168 89.1 8.2% 12.8%vs LHP 377 12.7% 41.7% 22.1% 42

4 Austin Wells 50 C — HOT 68 0.138 89.4 8.6% 15.0%vs LHP 381 9.6% 30.0% 18.7% 19

5 Jazz Chisholm 50 C — COOL 69 0.169 90.4 9.1% 18.5%vs LHP 384 12.5% 0.0% 17.7% 4

6 Ryan Mcmahon 46 D — COOL 88 0.142 90.3 9.5% 0.0%vs LHP 382 8.3% 0.0% 8.8% 21

7 Jose Caballero 39 D — COOL 132 0.135 83.9 6.5% 22.2%vs LHP 384 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

13 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.