TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ PIT

Suppressed air · 0.92×

STL @ PIT

PNC Park · 12:35p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 7 mph cross 62°F Roof open

Hourly window

-9 ↑

12:35p

-8 ↑

1:35p

-8 ↑

2:35p

-8 ↑

3:35p

-7 ↑

4:35p

conditions build late — the 4:35p window peaks -7

Best of game Alec Burleson conv 11 · vs Skenes ⟷ Brandon Lowe conv 38 · vs Leahy → edge: Brandon Lowe

ATTACK Paul Skenes RHP · PIT

leak 86

1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · leakiest side of this game

1 Alec Burleson — D ●●○○○

2 Ivan Herrera — D ●○○○○

3 Jordan Walker — D ●○○○○

FADE Kyle Leahy RHP · STL

leak 79

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Lowe — C ●●●●●

2 Oneil Cruz — C ●●●●○

3 Ryan O'Hearn — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Brandon Lowe: Match 26.8% · 14D pace 50.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Brandon Lowe ✶ vs Leahy Edge — 0.232 · 91.1 · 10.8% 50.0% 26.8% F B O C 59

· PIT Oneil Cruz COOL vs Leahy Edge — 0.208 · 93.9 · 12.2% 27.3% 27.3% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn COOL vs Leahy Edge — 0.181 · 89.1 · 7.9% 11.1% 11.8% F B O D 43

· STL Alec Burleson COOL vs Skenes Edge — 0.181 · 91.9 · 8.8% 10.0% 11.9% F B O D 44

· PIT Jake Mangum HOT vs Leahy Edge — 0.089 · 85.8 · 4.8% 11.1% 7.0% F B O D 27

· STL Ivan Herrera HOT vs Skenes — 0.139 · 89.5 · 6.4% 0.0% 14.8% F B O D 32

· STL Jordan Walker vs Skenes — 0.197 · 92.6 · 9.8% 0.0% 13.6% F B O D 47

· STL Jj Wetherholt COOL vs Skenes Edge — 0.124 · 89.8 · 7.2% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 33

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Skenes Edge — 0.120 · 85.6 · 6.2% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 31

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Leahy Edge — 0.121 · 86.8 · 7.4% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 34

· PIT Konnor Griffin COOL vs Leahy — 0.125 · 87.9 · 7.8% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 34

· STL Masyn Winn COOL vs Skenes — 0.086 · 88.2 · 4.9% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 26

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Leahy — 0.086 · 86.4 · 5.5% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Paul Skenes — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Kyle Leahy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lowe Cruz

Legend

attack side — vs Skenes fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Brandon Lowe — · 59

Oneil Cruz — · 57

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 12:35p · roof open

Park 0.92× Wind 7 mph cross 62°F open

-9

↑

8 mph · cross

58°F

12:35p

-8

↑

8 mph · cross

59°F

1:35p

-8

↑

8 mph · cross

60°F

2:35p

-8

↑

8 mph · cross

61°F

3:35p

-7

↑

7 mph · cross

62°F

4:35p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.92× 62°F, wind 7 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Paul Skenes · RHP 1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 47 D — WARM 83 0.197 92.6 9.8% 25.3%vs RHP 406 16.1% 0.0% 13.6% 22

2 Alec Burleson 44 D — COOL 102 0.181 91.9 8.8% 22.7%vs RHP 405 14.0% 10.0% 11.9% 27

3 Jj Wetherholt 33 D — COOL 169 0.124 89.8 7.2% 15.3%vs RHP 393 16.7% 0.0% 7.9% 13

4 Ivan Herrera 32 D — HOT 171 0.139 89.5 6.4% 20.7%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 14.8% 25

5 Nathan Church 31 D — COOL 173 0.120 85.6 6.2% 12.7%vs RHP 386 7.0% 0.0% 7.6% 34

6 Masyn Winn 26 D — COOL 182 0.086 88.2 4.9% 7.5%vs RHP 385 3.8% 0.0% 7.1% 21

vs Kyle Leahy · RHP 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe ✶ 59 C — WARM 25 0.232 91.1 10.8% 27.7%vs RHP 392 19.3% 50.0% 26.8% 29

2 Oneil Cruz 57 C — COOL 30 0.208 93.9 12.2% 42.1%vs RHP 414 22.4% 27.3% 27.3% 29

3 Ryan O'Hearn 43 D — COOL 109 0.181 89.1 7.9% 22.9%vs RHP 385 13.2% 11.1% 11.8% 26

4 Spencer Horwitz 34 D — COOL 165 0.121 86.8 7.4% 12.3%vs RHP 395 8.1% 0.0% 7.5% 14

5 Konnor Griffin 34 D — COOL 166 0.125 87.9 7.8% 16.7%vs RHP 401 4.8% 0.0% 7.3% 44

6 Jake Mangum 27 D — HOT 179 0.089 85.8 4.8% 8.1%vs RHP 394 4.8% 11.1% 7.0% 26

7 Nick Gonzales 27 D — WARM 181 0.086 86.4 5.5% 8.3%vs RHP 397 5.6% 0.0% 6.5% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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