TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.61×

HOU @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 9:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.24× Wind 9 mph out 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

+17 ↑

6:40p

+15 ↑

7:40p

+13 ↑

8:40p

+12 ↑

9:40p

+10 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +17

Best of game Yainer Diaz conv 33 · vs Barnett ⟷ Zack Gelof conv 28 · vs Lambert → edge: Yordan Alvarez

ATTACK Mason Barnett RHP · ATH

leak 86

2.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.69 · leakiest side of this game

1 Yainer Diaz — C+ ●●●●●

2 Isaac Paredes — C ●●●●●

3 Jeremy Peña — C+ ●●●●○

FADE Peter Lambert RHP · HOU

leak 51

0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · stingy — thin edge

1 Zack Gelof — C+ ●●●●○

2 Lawrence Butler — C ●●●●○

3 Carlos Cortes — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Yordan Alvarez: Match 37.9% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Barnett — 0.178 · 89.1 · 7.7% 30.0% 35.3% F B O C+ 61

· HOU Isaac Paredes vs Barnett — 0.179 · 86.0 · 6.5% 33.3% 30.3% F B O C 59

· ATH Zack Gelof HOT vs Lambert — 0.211 · 89.6 · 8.5% 27.3% 29.6% F B O C+ 61

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Barnett — 0.194 · 88.6 · 7.7% 16.7% 37.2% F B O C+ 62

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Lambert Edge — 0.159 · 89.9 · 7.7% 27.3% 20.5% F B O C 52

· HOU Yordan Alvarez ✶ vs Barnett Edge — 0.288 · 94.3 · 11.8% 0.0% 37.9% F B O B 71

· HOU Christian Walker vs Barnett — 0.188 · 88.9 · 8.9% 9.1% 19.9% F B O C+ 60

· HOU Taylor Trammell vs Barnett Edge — 0.152 · 88.5 · 10.3% 12.5% 15.6% F B O C 57

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Barnett — 0.179 · 88.6 · 9.9% 9.1% 18.8% F B O C+ 60

· ATH Shea Langeliers COOL vs Lambert — 0.219 · 91.5 · 9.7% 0.0% 17.8% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· ATH Carlos Cortes vs Lambert Edge — 0.150 · 88.4 · 6.5% 12.5% 10.5% F B O D 45

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Lambert — 0.128 · 90.8 · 7.4% 9.1% 9.7% F B O D 46

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Barnett — 0.118 · 85.9 · 4.3% 0.0% 16.3% F B O D 42

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Barnett — 0.150 · 85.6 · 6.0% 0.0% 15.0% F B O D 46

· ATH Jonah Heim COOL vs Lambert — 0.164 · 87.3 · 6.4% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 46

· ATH Jeff Mcneil COOL vs Lambert Edge — 0.099 · 86.3 · 3.4% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Mason Barnett — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Peter Lambert — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alvarez Peña Diaz Walker Smith Paredes Trammell Gelof Butler

Legend

attack side — vs Barnett fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Yainer Diaz — · 61

Isaac Paredes — · 59

Zack Gelof — · 61

Lawrence Butler — · 52

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.24× Wind 9 mph out 84°F open

+17

↑

9 mph · out

82°F

6:40p · peak

+15

↑

8 mph · out

76°F

7:40p

+13

↑

7 mph · out

73°F

8:40p

+12

↑

7 mph · slight_out

71°F

9:40p

+10

↑

6 mph · slight_out

69°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.61× 84°F, wind 9 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Mason Barnett · RHP 2.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.69 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez ✶ 71 B — · 4 0.288 94.3 11.8% 25.2%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 37.9% 27

2 Jeremy Peña 62 C+ — WARM 10 0.194 88.6 7.7% 29.0%vs RHP 389 15.5% 16.7% 37.2% 26

3 Yainer Diaz 61 C+ — WARM 15 0.178 89.1 7.7% 32.4%vs RHP 387 12.7% 30.0% 35.3% 35

4 Christian Walker 60 C+ — WARM 19 0.188 88.9 8.9% 22.2%vs RHP 392 16.4% 9.1% 19.9% 28

5 Cam Smith 60 C+ — COOL 20 0.179 88.6 9.9% 21.3%vs RHP 410 13.1% 9.1% 18.8% 25

6 Isaac Paredes 59 C — · 21 0.179 86.0 6.5% 17.8%vs RHP 375 13.9% 33.3% 30.3% 37

7 Taylor Trammell 57 C — WARM 36 0.152 88.5 10.3% 19.5%vs RHP 406 11.5% 12.5% 15.6% 17

8 Jose Altuve 46 D — COOL 86 0.150 85.6 6.0% 17.6%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 41

9 Christian Vazquez 42 D — COOL 116 0.118 85.9 4.3% 17.1%vs RHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 16.3% 4

vs Peter Lambert · RHP 0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zack Gelof 61 C+ — HOT 12 0.211 89.6 8.5% 24.6%vs RHP 398 21.1% 27.3% 29.6% 34

2 Shea Langeliers 59 C — COOL 23 0.219 91.5 9.7% 22.6%vs RHP 417 18.8% 0.0% 17.8% 26

3 Lawrence Butler 52 C — WARM 61 0.159 89.9 7.7% 24.1%vs RHP 408 10.1% 27.3% 20.5% 32

4 Jonah Heim 46 D — COOL 91 0.164 87.3 6.4% 6.8%vs RHP 409 7.9% 0.0% 10.7% 22

5 Henry Bolte 46 D — WARM 92 0.128 90.8 7.4% 14.8%vs RHP 398 11.7% 9.1% 9.7% 27

6 Carlos Cortes 45 D — · 100 0.150 88.4 6.5% 15.8%vs RHP 398 5.5% 12.5% 10.5% 20

7 Jeff Mcneil 35 D — COOL 158 0.099 86.3 3.4% 11.4%vs RHP 380 5.9% 0.0% 8.6% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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