TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ TEX

Globe Life Field is live · 1.31×

NYM @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 2:35p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind 5 mph cross 93°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

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1:35p

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2:35p

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3:35p

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conditions hold steady across the window · +0 FIT

Best of game Juan Soto conv 28 · vs Rocker ⟷ Josh Jung conv 16 · vs Thornton → edge: Juan Soto

ATTACK Kumar Rocker RHP · TEX

leak 83

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.35 · leakiest side of this game

1 Juan Soto — C+ ●●●●○

2 Carson Benge — D ●●●○○

3 Francisco Lindor — C ●●○○○

FADE Zac Thornton LHP · NYM

leak 72

1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.43 · stingy — thin edge

1 Josh Jung — D ●●○○○

2 Jake Burger — C ●●○○○

3 Corey Seager — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Juan Soto: Match 31.2% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYM Juan Soto ✶ vs Rocker Edge — 0.250 · 92.7 · 10.4% 25.0% 31.2% F B O C+ 64

· TEX Jake Burger vs Thornton Edge — 0.193 · 90.2 · 10.7% 8.3% 15.5% F B O C 54

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Rocker Edge — 0.197 · 91.4 · 8.3% 8.3% 14.5% F B O C 51

· TEX Corey Seager COOL vs Thornton — 0.190 · 91.6 · 11.4% 8.3% 13.1% F B O C 54

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs Thornton Edge — 0.189 · 88.8 · 8.7% 8.3% 11.8% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· NYM Carson Benge vs Rocker Edge — 0.145 · 88.8 · 7.5% 25.0% 15.3% F B O D 46

· TEX Josh Jung vs Thornton Edge — 0.154 · 90.7 · 8.0% 20.0% 12.0% F B O D 46

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Rocker — 0.126 · 86.7 · 6.7% 10.0% 8.3% F B O D 40

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Rocker — 0.127 · 89.6 · 7.0% 8.3% 8.2% F B O D 41

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Rocker — 0.169 · 90.7 · 11.0% 0.0% 13.2% F B O D 46

· NYM A.J. Ewing COOL vs Rocker Edge — 0.120 · 89.4 · 7.2% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 37

· TEX Ezequiel Duran COOL vs Thornton Edge — 0.164 · 88.9 · 7.5% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 45

· NYM Brett Baty vs Rocker Edge — 0.139 · 90.5 · 8.9% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 43

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Thornton — 0.145 · 92.0 · 9.2% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 45

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Thornton — 0.120 · 87.6 · 6.8% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 38

· TEX Nicky Lopez COOL vs Thornton — 0.039 · 84.6 · — 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 20

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Kumar Rocker — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Zac Thornton — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Soto Benge Jung

Legend

attack side — vs Rocker fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Juan Soto — · 64

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 1:35p · roof retractable

Park 1.01× Wind 5 mph cross 93°F retractable

↑

5 mph · cross

88°F

1:35p · peak

↑

5 mph · cross

91°F

2:35p

↑

5 mph · cross

94°F

3:35p

↑

5 mph · cross

93°F

4:35p

↑

5 mph · cross

90°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.31× 93°F, wind 5 mph E (cross) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kumar Rocker · RHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.35 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto ✶ 64 C+ — WARM 7 0.250 92.7 10.4% 32.3%vs RHP 403 21.1% 25.0% 31.2% 38

2 Francisco Lindor 51 C — · 66 0.197 91.4 8.3% 21.4%vs RHP 390 15.5% 8.3% 14.5% 39

3 Francisco Alvarez 46 D — WARM 85 0.169 90.7 11.0% 30.2%vs RHP 401 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 25

4 Carson Benge 46 D — WARM 89 0.145 88.8 7.5% 15.4%vs RHP 392 11.3% 25.0% 15.3% 38

5 Brett Baty 43 D — WARM 113 0.139 90.5 8.9% 13.5%vs RHP 402 6.8% 0.0% 10.1% 18

6 Bo Bichette 41 D — COOL 124 0.127 89.6 7.0% 11.4%vs RHP 390 10.5% 8.3% 8.2% 40

7 Marcus Semien 40 D — COOL 130 0.126 86.7 6.7% 12.4%vs RHP 391 10.0% 10.0% 8.3% 39

8 A.J. Ewing 37 D — COOL 146 0.120 89.4 7.2% 15.1%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 31

vs Zac Thornton · LHP 1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.43 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corey Seager 54 C — COOL 46 0.190 91.6 11.4% 22.2%vs LHP 397 17.3% 8.3% 13.1% 37

2 Jake Burger 54 C — · 50 0.193 90.2 10.7% 34.3%vs LHP 402 16.1% 8.3% 15.5% 27

3 Wyatt Langford 50 C — WARM 70 0.189 88.8 8.7% 12.1%vs LHP 401 14.4% 8.3% 11.8% 21

4 Josh Jung 46 D — WARM 87 0.154 90.7 8.0% 11.1%vs LHP 381 11.0% 20.0% 12.0% 32

5 Ezequiel Duran 45 D — COOL 99 0.164 88.9 7.5% 16.0%vs LHP 397 12.2% 0.0% 10.8% 34

6 Brandon Nimmo 45 D — COOL 101 0.145 92.0 9.2% 14.3%vs LHP 404 8.9% 0.0% 9.0% 25

7 Evan Carter 38 D — COOL 145 0.120 87.6 6.8% 0.0%vs LHP 380 7.1% 0.0% 6.3% 19

8 Nicky Lopez 20 D — COOL 185 0.039 84.6 — 0.0%vs LHP 397 1.6% 0.0% 6.3% 19

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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