TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ ATL

Playable air · 1.07×

CIN @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 3 mph cross 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

7:15p

-1 ↑

8:15p

-1 ↑

9:15p

-1 ↑

10:15p

-2 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +0

Best of game Matt Olson conv 34 · vs Singer ⟷ Elly De La Cruz conv 27 · vs Mahle → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Brady Singer RHP · CIN

leak 92

1.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.09 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson — B ●●●●●

2 Mike Yastrzemski — C ●●●●○

3 Austin Riley — C ●●●○○

FADE Tyler Mahle RHP · SF

leak 62

1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · stingy — thin edge

1 Elly De La Cruz — C+ ●●●●○

2 Dane Myers — D ●●●○○

3 Eugenio Suarez — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: Match 35.3% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ COOL vs Singer Edge — 0.257 · 92.4 · 11.9% 33.3% 35.3% F B O B 74

· — Elly De La Cruz vs Mahle Edge — 0.232 · 94.7 · 10.1% 25.0% 28.6% F B O C+ 63

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Singer Edge — 0.161 · 90.3 · 8.1% 33.3% 20.2% F B O C 53

· ATL Austin Riley COOL vs Singer — 0.143 · 91.2 · 11.0% 18.2% 16.9% F B O C 55

· — Eugenio Suarez vs Mahle — 0.218 · 88.5 · 8.7% 0.0% 30.3% F B O C 51

· ATL Ronald Acuna COOL vs Singer — 0.203 · 89.6 · 11.2% 0.0% 28.7% F B O C 57

· — Sal Stewart vs Mahle — 0.200 · 90.4 · 8.9% 8.3% 15.5% F B O C 54

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Singer Edge — 0.172 · 91.3 · 11.1% 8.3% 13.6% F B O C 58

· ATL Michael Harris vs Singer Edge — 0.194 · 90.4 · 9.9% 0.0% 16.0% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· — Dane Myers vs Mahle — 0.120 · 89.2 · 5.5% 22.2% 15.3% F B O D 41

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Singer Edge — 0.158 · 87.1 · 6.2% 9.1% 11.2% F B O D 48

· — Jj Bleday COOL vs Mahle Edge — 0.198 · 88.4 · 7.8% 0.0% 13.8% F B O D 48

· — Tyler Stephenson vs Mahle — 0.166 · 91.0 · 8.8% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 47

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Singer Edge — 0.121 · 87.7 · 7.2% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 45

· — Matt Mclain COOL vs Mahle — 0.152 · 88.0 · 7.7% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 43

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Singer — 0.119 · 86.4 · 6.2% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Brady Singer — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Tyler Mahle — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Acuna Riley Yastrzemski Cruz Suarez Myers

Legend

attack side — vs Singer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Matt Olson — · 74

Elly De La Cruz — · 63

Mike Yastrzemski — · 53

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 3 mph cross 72°F open

↑

5 mph · cross

71°F

7:15p · peak

-1

↑

5 mph · cross

71°F

8:15p

-1

↑

5 mph · cross

70°F

9:15p

-1

↑

5 mph · cross

69°F

10:15p

-2

↑

6 mph · cross

67°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.07× 72°F, wind 3 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brady Singer · RHP 1.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.09 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 74 B — COOL 2 0.257 92.4 11.9% 28.4%vs RHP 406 23.3% 33.3% 35.3% 41

2 Drake Baldwin 58 C — COOL 28 0.172 91.3 11.1% 21.5%vs RHP 401 15.2% 8.3% 13.6% 37

3 Ronald Acuna 57 C — COOL 29 0.203 89.6 11.2% 27.3%vs RHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 28.7% 34

4 Michael Harris 55 C — · 44 0.194 90.4 9.9% 25.0%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 43

5 Austin Riley 55 C — COOL 45 0.143 91.2 11.0% 18.5%vs RHP 410 9.7% 18.2% 16.9% 26

6 Mike Yastrzemski 53 C — COOL 56 0.161 90.3 8.1% 16.2%vs RHP 386 9.1% 33.3% 20.2% 21

7 Ozzie Albies 48 D — · 80 0.158 87.1 6.2% 13.0%vs RHP 388 12.7% 9.1% 11.2% 36

8 Dominic Smith 45 D — COOL 95 0.121 87.7 7.2% 14.0%vs RHP 392 7.8% 0.0% 11.8% 2

9 Mauricio Dubon 39 D — WARM 133 0.119 86.4 6.2% 8.9%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 39

vs Tyler Mahle · RHP 1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz 63 C+ — WARM 8 0.232 94.7 10.1% 24.7%vs RHP 402 18.8% 25.0% 28.6% 27

2 Sal Stewart 54 C — WARM 51 0.200 90.4 8.9% 23.8%vs RHP 397 16.8% 8.3% 15.5% 31

3 Eugenio Suarez 51 C — WARM 64 0.218 88.5 8.7% 29.5%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 30.3% 23

4 Jj Bleday 48 D — COOL 78 0.198 88.4 7.8% 20.5%vs RHP 389 15.4% 0.0% 13.8% 28

5 Tyler Stephenson 47 D — · 84 0.166 91.0 8.8% 20.0%vs RHP 392 9.5% 0.0% 12.3% 26

6 Matt Mclain 43 D — COOL 105 0.152 88.0 7.7% 12.0%vs RHP 391 10.0% 0.0% 10.2% 18

7 Dane Myers 41 D — WARM 121 0.120 89.2 5.5% 14.3%vs RHP 387 8.1% 22.2% 15.3% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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