TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ LAD

Playable air · 1.07×

SD @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 10:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 3 mph out 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

7:10p

+4 ↑

8:10p

+4 ↑

9:10p

+4 ↑

10:10p

+4 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +5

Best of game Manny Machado conv 24 · vs Glasnow ⟷ Kyle Tucker conv 24 · vs Pivetta → edge: Manny Machado

ATTACK Tyler Glasnow RHP · LAD

leak 95

0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · leakiest side of this game

1 Manny Machado — C ●●●●○

2 Jackson Merrill — C ●●○○○

3 Ty France — C ●●○○○

FADE Nick Pivetta RHP · SD

leak 3

0.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.96 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Tucker — D ●●●●○

2 Mookie Betts — C ●●●○○

3 Max Muncy — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Manny Machado: Match 23.8% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Manny Machado ✶ COOL vs Glasnow — 0.190 · 90.1 · 8.9% 25.0% 23.8% F B O C 54

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Pivetta — 0.194 · 90.4 · 8.1% 18.2% 19.9% F B O C 50

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Pivetta Edge — 0.240 · 89.8 · 10.5% 16.7% 14.0% F B O C 58

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Glasnow Edge — 0.187 · 91.6 · 10.1% 16.7% 13.4% F B O C 53

· SD Ty France vs Glasnow — 0.212 · 91.7 · 8.8% 10.0% 17.9% F B O C 52

· LAD Shohei Ohtani HOT vs Pivetta Edge — 0.243 · 93.3 · 11.6% 0.0% 17.0% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Pivetta Edge — 0.156 · 88.6 · 7.4% 36.4% 12.4% F B O D 45

· LAD Tommy Edman COOL vs Pivetta Edge — 0.139 · 87.4 · 6.8% 18.2% 7.9% F B O D 41

· SD Fernando Tatis vs Glasnow — 0.182 · 92.9 · 10.3% 0.0% 23.9% F B O D 48

· LAD Alex Freeland vs Pivetta Edge — 0.090 · 89.6 · 7.2% 12.5% 8.4% F B O D 36

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Glasnow — 0.109 · 89.6 · 6.8% 9.1% 9.9% F B O D 37

· SD Jake Cronenworth vs Glasnow Edge — 0.095 · 87.1 · 5.5% 8.3% 8.2% F B O D 33

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Pivetta — 0.186 · 88.7 · 8.0% 0.0% 16.2% F B O D 47

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Pivetta — 0.154 · 90.2 · 9.3% 0.0% 13.6% F B O D 41

· SD Freddy Fermin COOL vs Glasnow — 0.110 · 87.5 · 5.7% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 34

· LAD Freddie Freeman vs Pivetta Edge — 0.145 · 89.4 · 8.3% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Tyler Glasnow — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Nick Pivetta — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Machado Merrill France Muncy Betts Tucker Edman

Legend

attack side — vs Glasnow fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Manny Machado — · 54

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 3 mph out 76°F open

↑

3 mph · out

73°F

7:10p · peak

↑

2 mph · out

70°F

8:10p

↑

2 mph · out

69°F

9:10p

↑

2 mph · out

69°F

10:10p

↑

2 mph · out

69°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.07× 76°F, wind 3 mph S (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tyler Glasnow · RHP 0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado ✶ 54 C — COOL 52 0.190 90.1 8.9% 26.1%vs RHP 398 17.9% 25.0% 23.8% 41

2 Jackson Merrill 53 C — WARM 59 0.187 91.6 10.1% 20.2%vs RHP 411 16.0% 16.7% 13.4% 38

3 Ty France 52 C — · 60 0.212 91.7 8.8% 25.8%vs RHP 390 15.0% 10.0% 17.9% 31

4 Fernando Tatis 48 D — WARM 77 0.182 92.9 10.3% 18.6%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 23.9% 37

5 Xander Bogaerts 37 D — WARM 147 0.109 89.6 6.8% 16.2%vs RHP 404 7.5% 9.1% 9.9% 30

6 Freddy Fermin 34 D — COOL 162 0.110 87.5 5.7% 6.2%vs RHP 382 1.8% 0.0% 8.5% 11

7 Jake Cronenworth 33 D — WARM 170 0.095 87.1 5.5% 12.0%vs RHP 377 3.7% 8.3% 8.2% 39

vs Nick Pivetta · RHP 0.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.96 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani 59 C — HOT 24 0.243 93.3 11.6% 25.4%vs RHP 407 17.7% 0.0% 17.0% 2

2 Max Muncy 58 C — COOL 27 0.240 89.8 10.5% 25.9%vs RHP 410 21.7% 16.7% 14.0% 39

3 Mookie Betts 50 C — WARM 67 0.194 90.4 8.1% 17.1%vs RHP 389 13.2% 18.2% 19.9% 40

4 Andy Pages 47 D — COOL 82 0.186 88.7 8.0% 19.4%vs RHP 390 14.1% 0.0% 16.2% 5

5 Kyle Tucker 45 D — WARM 93 0.156 88.6 7.4% 11.5%vs RHP 392 10.2% 36.4% 12.4% 37

6 Teoscar Hernandez 41 D — · 120 0.154 90.2 9.3% 14.8%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 30

7 Tommy Edman 41 D — COOL 124 0.139 87.4 6.8% 8.7%vs RHP 396 10.7% 18.2% 7.9% 32

8 Freddie Freeman 41 D — · 125 0.145 89.4 8.3% 13.6%vs RHP 399 9.2% 0.0% 7.0% 33

9 Alex Freeland 36 D — WARM 153 0.090 89.6 7.2% 11.8%vs RHP 366 3.6% 12.5% 8.4% 15

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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