TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ BOS

Suppressed air · 0.73×

CLE @ BOS

Fenway Park · 6:45p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.91× Wind 7 mph in 60°F Roof open

Hourly window

-15 ↑

6:45p

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7:45p

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8:45p

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9:45p

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10:45p

conditions hold steady across the window · -15 FIT

Best of game Travis Bazzana conv 20 · vs Suarez ⟷ Mickey Gasper conv 19 · vs Espino → edge: Mickey Gasper

ATTACK Ranger Suarez LHP · BOS

leak 9

0.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.51 · leakiest side of this game

1 Travis Bazzana — D ●●●○○

2 Jo Adell — D ●●○○○

3 Angel Martinez — D ●○○○○

FADE Daniel Espino RHP · CLE

leak 3

2.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.64 · stingy — thin edge

1 Mickey Gasper — C ●●●○○

2 Trevor Story — D ●●●○○

3 Caleb Durbin — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Mickey Gasper: Match 17.2% · 14D pace 20.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Mickey Gasper ✶ vs Espino Edge — 0.220 · 88.9 · 10.2% 20.0% 17.2% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 17 long shots

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Suarez — 0.159 · 87.7 · 5.4% 27.3% 13.7% F B O D 38

· BOS Trevor Story vs Espino — 0.119 · 87.0 · 7.3% 20.0% 16.4% F B O D 38

· CLE Jo Adell vs Suarez Edge — 0.158 · 90.2 · 7.0% 18.2% 12.2% F B O D 39

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Espino — 0.132 · 83.2 · 5.2% 9.1% 10.7% F B O D 33

· CLE Angel Martinez HOT vs Suarez Edge — 0.210 · 87.7 · 6.6% 0.0% 19.3% F B O D 37

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela HOT vs Espino — 0.160 · 86.3 · 7.3% 0.0% 15.6% F B O D 40

· BOS Nick Sogard vs Espino Edge — 0.136 · 86.8 · 7.1% 10.0% 5.4% F B O D 37

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Suarez — 0.064 · 83.7 · 1.5% 9.1% 5.8% F B O D 17

· CLE David Fry vs Suarez Edge — 0.157 · 86.2 · 5.9% 0.0% 14.1% F B O D 34

· CLE Chase Delauter COOL vs Suarez — 0.165 · 91.3 · 5.9% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 32

· BOS Isiah Kiner-Falefa COOL vs Espino — 0.072 · 82.7 · 4.8% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 29

· BOS Wilyer Abreu vs Espino Edge — 0.200 · 89.8 · 11.1% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 49

· BOS Adley Rutschman COOL vs Espino Edge — 0.181 · 88.8 · 8.2% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 41

· BOS Jarren Duran COOL vs Espino Edge — 0.156 · 89.7 · 9.6% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 42

· CLE Patrick Bailey vs Suarez — 0.113 · 90.3 · 6.2% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 30

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Suarez Edge — 0.137 · 88.5 · 4.9% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 27

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Suarez Edge — 0.128 · 87.0 · 4.0% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Ranger Suarez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Daniel Espino — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Adell Bazzana Gasper Story

Legend

attack side — vs Suarez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.91× Wind 7 mph in 60°F open

-15

↑

12 mph · in

62°F

6:45p · peak

-15

↑

12 mph · in

62°F

7:45p

-15

↑

12 mph · in

62°F

8:45p

-15

↑

12 mph · in

62°F

9:45p

-15

↑

12 mph · in

62°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.73× 60°F, wind 7 mph NE (in) — modifier: -2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ranger Suarez · LHP 0.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.51 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jo Adell 39 D — · 151 0.158 90.2 7.0% 34.2%vs LHP 417 13.4% 18.2% 12.2% 32

2 Travis Bazzana 38 D — WARM 160 0.159 87.7 5.4% 7.4%vs LHP 393 12.8% 27.3% 13.7% 29

3 Angel Martinez 37 D — HOT 161 0.210 87.7 6.6% 23.1%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 19.3% 23

4 David Fry 34 D — WARM 175 0.157 86.2 5.9% 21.1%vs LHP 384 6.5% 0.0% 14.1% 12

5 Chase Delauter 32 D — COOL 186 0.165 91.3 5.9% 16.7%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 29

6 Patrick Bailey 30 D — WARM 192 0.113 90.3 6.2% 10.0%vs LHP 409 6.6% 0.0% 7.0% 11

7 Brayan Rocchio 28 D — COOL 196 0.128 87.0 4.0% 10.8%vs LHP 384 8.2% 0.0% 6.1% 28

8 Jose Ramirez 27 D — COOL 197 0.137 88.5 4.9% 14.7%vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 36

9 Steven Kwan 17 D — COOL 203 0.064 83.7 1.5% 0.0%vs LHP 367 2.1% 9.1% 5.8% 36

vs Daniel Espino · RHP 2.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.64 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mickey Gasper ✶ 50 C — WARM 70 0.220 88.9 10.2% 22.5%vs RHP 392 17.8% 20.0% 17.2% 17

2 Wilyer Abreu 49 D — · 76 0.200 89.8 11.1% 14.9%vs RHP 406 15.1% 0.0% 8.5% 27

3 Jarren Duran 42 D — COOL 127 0.156 89.7 9.6% 25.7%vs RHP 401 13.5% 0.0% 7.5% 17

4 Adley Rutschman 41 D — COOL 137 0.181 88.8 8.2% 15.2%vs RHP 395 9.9% 0.0% 7.7% 32

5 Ceddanne Rafaela 40 D — HOT 143 0.160 86.3 7.3% 13.9%vs RHP 382 11.8% 0.0% 15.6% 1

6 Trevor Story 38 D — WARM 156 0.119 87.0 7.3% 13.3%vs RHP 407 8.1% 20.0% 16.4% 25

7 Nick Sogard 37 D — WARM 164 0.136 86.8 7.1% 10.7%vs RHP 381 11.3% 10.0% 5.4% 31

8 Caleb Durbin 33 D — COOL 182 0.132 83.2 5.2% 17.0%vs RHP 376 8.1% 9.1% 10.7% 30

9 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 29 D — COOL 193 0.072 82.7 4.8% 6.2%vs RHP 377 5.9% 0.0% 9.1% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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