TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ PHI

Suppressed air · 0.99×

MIL @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 6:05p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.10× Wind 9 mph in 63°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

6:05p

-5 ↑

7:05p

-3 ↑

8:05p

-5 ↑

9:05p

-6 ↑

10:05p

the 8:05p window peaks -3

Best of game Jake Bauers conv 28 · vs Painter ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 14 · vs Wilson → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Andrew Painter RHP · PHI

leak 86

1.58 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.55 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jake Bauers — C+ ●●●●○

2 Brice Turang — C ●●●●○

3 William Contreras — C ●●●●○

FADE Bryse Wilson RHP

leak 9

0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.42 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber — C+ ●●○○○

2 Bryce Harper — C ●●○○○

3 Brandon Marsh — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: Match 31.8% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ vs Painter Edge — 0.223 · 92.2 · 10.7% 25.0% 31.8% F B O C+ 66

· MIL Brice Turang vs Painter Edge — 0.177 · 90.2 · 8.0% 30.0% 24.1% F B O C 56

· MIL William Contreras vs Painter — 0.149 · 90.3 · 8.4% 33.3% 19.3% F B O C 53

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Painter Edge — 0.157 · 93.2 · 9.8% 20.0% 21.9% F B O C 55

· — Kyle Schwarber COOL vs Wilson Edge — 0.273 · 92.2 · 8.2% 8.3% 19.0% F B O C+ 61

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Painter — 0.193 · 91.6 · 10.0% 9.1% 15.3% F B O C 58

· — Bryce Harper COOL vs Wilson Edge — 0.218 · 90.1 · 6.6% 8.3% 16.0% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs Painter Edge — 0.145 · 89.1 · 8.8% 12.5% 11.2% F B O D 49

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Painter — 0.135 · 89.1 · 5.8% 11.1% 10.7% F B O D 44

· — Brandon Marsh COOL vs Wilson Edge — 0.151 · 89.3 · 5.8% 11.1% 9.8% F B O D 42

· — Justin Crawford vs Wilson Edge — 0.092 · 87.0 · 2.7% 11.1% 6.5% F B O D 30

· — Trea Turner COOL vs Wilson — 0.139 · 88.3 · 5.1% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 39

· — J.T. Realmuto vs Wilson — 0.127 · 89.6 · 4.8% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 35

· — Alec Bohm vs Wilson — 0.137 · 90.6 · 5.1% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 39

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Painter Edge — 0.088 · 86.7 · 5.1% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 37

· MIL Sal Frelick COOL vs Painter Edge — 0.087 · 85.8 · 4.3% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 36

· — Bryson Stott COOL vs Wilson Edge — 0.142 · 89.2 · 5.0% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Andrew Painter — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Bryse Wilson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Turang Mitchell Contreras Schwarber

Legend

attack side — vs Painter fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Jake Bauers — · 66

Brice Turang — · 56

William Contreras — · 53

Garrett Mitchell — · 55

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 6:05p · roof open

Park 1.10× Wind 9 mph in 63°F open

-5

↑

8 mph · in

61°F

6:05p

-5

↑

7 mph · in

60°F

7:05p

-3

↑

5 mph · in

59°F

8:05p · peak

-5

↑

7 mph · in

59°F

9:05p

-6

↑

8 mph · in

58°F

10:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.99× 63°F, wind 9 mph NE (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Andrew Painter · RHP 1.58 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.55 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 66 C+ — WARM 5 0.223 92.2 10.7% 28.1%vs RHP 401 19.5% 25.0% 31.8% 17

2 Jackson Chourio 58 C — COOL 26 0.193 91.6 10.0% 18.8%vs RHP 401 17.1% 9.1% 15.3% 30

3 Brice Turang 56 C — WARM 40 0.177 90.2 8.0% 23.9%vs RHP 406 11.4% 30.0% 24.1% 23

4 Garrett Mitchell 55 C — COOL 42 0.157 93.2 9.8% 26.3%vs RHP 417 8.0% 20.0% 21.9% 24

5 William Contreras 53 C — · 55 0.149 90.3 8.4% 16.5%vs RHP 407 12.1% 33.3% 19.3% 32

6 Christian Yelich 49 D — COOL 75 0.145 89.1 8.8% 20.0%vs RHP 395 9.3% 12.5% 11.2% 23

7 Joey Ortiz 44 D — WARM 103 0.135 89.1 5.8% 18.4%vs RHP 392 7.5% 11.1% 10.7% 24

8 David Hamilton 37 D — COOL 149 0.088 86.7 5.1% 5.6%vs RHP 386 4.0% 0.0% 8.2% 13

9 Sal Frelick 36 D — COOL 154 0.087 85.8 4.3% 5.8%vs RHP 396 3.3% 0.0% 8.2% 20

vs Bryse Wilson · RHP 0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.42 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber 61 C+ — COOL 14 0.273 92.2 8.2% 40.5%vs RHP 402 23.0% 8.3% 19.0% 26

2 Bryce Harper 52 C — COOL 62 0.218 90.1 6.6% 34.3%vs RHP 403 17.0% 8.3% 16.0% 37

3 Brandon Marsh 42 D — COOL 117 0.151 89.3 5.8% 16.7%vs RHP 391 10.9% 11.1% 9.8% 19

4 Trea Turner 39 D — COOL 134 0.139 88.3 5.1% 18.8%vs RHP 390 12.1% 0.0% 9.9% 37

5 Alec Bohm 39 D — · 136 0.137 90.6 5.1% 12.1%vs RHP 394 9.7% 0.0% 8.9% 41

6 Bryson Stott 38 D — COOL 143 0.142 89.2 5.0% 8.6%vs RHP 393 6.8% 0.0% 7.7% 35

7 J.T. Realmuto 35 D — WARM 156 0.127 89.6 4.8% 17.6%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 25

8 Justin Crawford 30 D — WARM 175 0.092 87.0 2.7% 4.0%vs RHP 395 2.6% 11.1% 6.5% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

14 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.