TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ COL

Neutral air · 1.01×

AZ @ COL

Coors Field · 3:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind 5 mph in 69°F Roof open

Hourly window

-6 ↑

1:10p

-6 ↑

2:10p

-6 ↑

3:10p

-5 ↑

4:10p

-4 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 5:10p window peaks -4

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 35 · vs Gordon ⟷ Hunter Goodman conv 22 · vs Rodriguez → edge: Corbin Carroll

ATTACK Tanner Gordon RHP · COL

leak 73

1.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado — C ●●●●●

2 Corbin Carroll — C+ ●●●●○

3 Gabriel Moreno — C ●●●○○

FADE Eduardo Rodriguez LHP · AZ

leak 24

0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.41 · stingy — thin edge

1 Hunter Goodman — C+ ●●●○○

2 Cole Carrigg — D ●●○○○

3 Ezequiel Tovar — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Corbin Carroll: Match 25.4% · 14D pace 27.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Gordon — 0.212 · 85.1 · 8.2% 45.5% 23.9% F B O C 57

· AZ Corbin Carroll ✶ vs Gordon Edge — 0.233 · 91.9 · 11.2% 27.3% 25.4% F B O C+ 62

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Gordon — 0.173 · 89.1 · 8.8% 27.3% 16.8% F B O C 51

· COL Hunter Goodman COOL vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.279 · 89.8 · 10.4% 20.0% 23.4% F B O C+ 63

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Rodriguez — 0.245 · 89.7 · 8.6% 12.5% 15.7% F B O C 54

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Gordon Edge — 0.184 · 90.2 · 9.7% 0.0% 11.3% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· COL Cole Carrigg vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.186 · 87.9 · 6.4% 15.4% 15.9% F B O D 45

· COL Ezequiel Tovar vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.128 · 87.3 · 7.2% 20.0% 10.8% F B O D 40

· COL Kyle Karros vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.159 · 89.6 · 7.8% 18.2% 11.4% F B O D 45

· AZ Tim Tawa vs Gordon — 0.163 · 90.7 · 10.4% 10.0% 11.1% F B O D 49

· COL Jake Mccarthy vs Rodriguez — 0.189 · 85.2 · 6.5% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 43

· AZ Jose Fernandez COOL vs Gordon — 0.090 · 87.9 · 6.2% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 35

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Gordon — 0.105 · 86.6 · 8.1% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 38

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Rodriguez — 0.149 · 84.2 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 38

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Gordon Edge — 0.110 · 87.5 · 5.0% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 34

· COL Troy Johnston COOL vs Rodriguez — 0.118 · 89.7 · 4.1% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 32

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Gordon Edge — 0.124 · 87.4 · 5.7% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Tanner Gordon — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Eduardo Rodriguez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Carroll Arenado Moreno Goodman Moniak Carrigg Karros Tovar

Legend

attack side — vs Gordon fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Nolan Arenado — · 57

Corbin Carroll — · 62

Hunter Goodman — · 63

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 1.01× Wind 5 mph in 69°F open

-6

↑

6 mph · in

65°F

1:10p

-6

↑

6 mph · in

67°F

2:10p

-6

↑

6 mph · in

69°F

3:10p

-5

↑

6 mph · in

69°F

4:10p

-4

↑

5 mph · in

70°F

5:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.01× 69°F, wind 5 mph NNE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tanner Gordon · RHP 1.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll ✶ 62 C+ — WARM 11 0.233 91.9 11.2% 17.0%vs RHP 402 14.0% 27.3% 25.4% 31

2 Nolan Arenado 57 C — WARM 32 0.212 85.1 8.2% 21.5%vs RHP 390 17.7% 45.5% 23.9% 31

3 Gabriel Moreno 51 C — · 65 0.173 89.1 8.8% 16.2%vs RHP 399 11.9% 27.3% 16.8% 39

4 Ketel Marte 50 C — COOL 71 0.184 90.2 9.7% 13.5%vs RHP 408 13.7% 0.0% 11.3% 43

5 Tim Tawa 49 D — WARM 76 0.163 90.7 10.4% 23.3%vs RHP 397 10.3% 10.0% 11.1% 24

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 38 D — COOL 140 0.105 86.6 8.1% 9.7%vs RHP 415 3.4% 0.0% 9.3% 3

7 Ildemaro Vargas 36 D — COOL 155 0.124 87.4 5.7% 6.0%vs RHP 396 4.3% 0.0% 7.2% 18

8 Jose Fernandez 35 D — COOL 157 0.090 87.9 6.2% 21.4%vs RHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 6

9 Geraldo Perdomo 34 D — COOL 164 0.110 87.5 5.0% 9.0%vs RHP 383 5.6% 0.0% 7.5% 33

vs Eduardo Rodriguez · LHP 0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.41 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman 63 C+ — COOL 9 0.279 89.8 10.4% 34.4%vs LHP 408 23.4% 20.0% 23.4% 30

2 Mickey Moniak 54 C — WARM 49 0.245 89.7 8.6% 16.7%vs LHP 417 16.7% 12.5% 15.7% 20

3 Cole Carrigg 45 D — WARM 94 0.186 87.9 6.4% 10.3%vs LHP 407 9.4% 15.4% 15.9% 38

4 Kyle Karros 45 D — WARM 97 0.159 89.6 7.8% 14.3%vs LHP 418 11.1% 18.2% 11.4% 32

5 Jake Mccarthy 43 D — WARM 108 0.189 85.2 6.5% 17.4%vs LHP 415 9.5% 0.0% 12.0% 47

6 Ezequiel Tovar 40 D — WARM 127 0.128 87.3 7.2% 5.0%vs LHP 403 8.3% 20.0% 10.8% 22

7 Tj Rumfield 38 D — COOL 142 0.149 84.2 6.0% 11.4%vs LHP 412 9.5% 0.0% 8.8% 36

8 Troy Johnston 32 D — COOL 172 0.118 89.7 4.1% 8.0%vs LHP 411 1.9% 0.0% 7.3% 16

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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