TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ SEA

Suppressed air · 0.93×

LAA @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 9:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.03× Wind 7 mph in 60°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-4 ↑

6:40p

-4 ↑

7:40p

-4 ↑

8:40p

-3 ↑

9:40p

-1 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks -1

Best of game Randy Arozarena conv 25 · vs Rodriguez ⟷ Vaughn Grissom conv 21 · vs Woo → edge: Randy Arozarena

ATTACK Grayson Rodriguez RHP · LAA

leak 83

1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.47 · leakiest side of this game

1 Randy Arozarena — C ●●●●○

2 Cal Raleigh — C ●●●○○

3 Dominic Canzone — C ●●○○○

FADE Bryan Woo RHP · SEA

leak 55

0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · stingy — thin edge

1 Vaughn Grissom — D ●●●○○

2 Mike Trout — C ●●●○○

3 Josh Lowe — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Randy Arozarena: Match 24.8% · 14D pace 25.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Randy Arozarena ✶ vs Rodriguez — 0.199 · 90.9 · 8.4% 25.0% 24.8% F B O C 57

· LAA Mike Trout vs Woo — 0.183 · 90.0 · 10.6% 16.7% 20.7% F B O C 52

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.191 · 90.0 · 11.2% 16.7% 18.4% F B O C 57

· SEA Dominic Canzone vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.219 · 91.1 · 10.3% 8.3% 15.9% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· LAA Vaughn Grissom vs Woo — 0.151 · 87.5 · 7.0% 25.0% 16.7% F B O D 43

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Woo Edge — 0.153 · 88.7 · 8.1% 9.1% 13.6% F B O D 43

· LAA Zach Neto vs Woo — 0.194 · 89.9 · 9.0% 8.3% 12.6% F B O D 49

· SEA Cole Young vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.137 · 88.3 · 6.6% 10.0% 9.3% F B O D 43

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Rodriguez — 0.153 · 90.3 · 8.7% 8.3% 10.9% F B O D 48

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.128 · 87.8 · 7.3% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 39

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.089 · 87.1 · 6.3% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 35

· LAA Oswald Peraza vs Woo — 0.109 · 87.6 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 34

· LAA Wade Meckler vs Woo Edge — 0.080 · 87.2 · 4.7% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Bryan Woo — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Grayson Rodriguez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Trout Grissom Arozarena Raleigh

Legend

attack side — vs Rodriguez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Randy Arozarena — · 57

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 1.03× Wind 7 mph in 60°F retractable

-4

↑

6 mph · cross

59°F

6:40p

-4

↑

5 mph · cross

58°F

7:40p

-4

↑

4 mph · in

57°F

8:40p

-3

↑

3 mph · in

56°F

9:40p

-1

↑

2 mph · cross

56°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.93× 60°F, wind 7 mph N (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bryan Woo · RHP 0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 52 C — WARM 63 0.183 90.0 10.6% 21.6%vs RHP 409 13.2% 16.7% 20.7% 24

2 Zach Neto 49 D — WARM 73 0.194 89.9 9.0% 18.6%vs RHP 404 16.0% 8.3% 12.6% 25

3 Josh Lowe 43 D — WARM 107 0.153 88.7 8.1% 19.7%vs RHP 393 9.9% 9.1% 13.6% 15

4 Vaughn Grissom 43 D — · 115 0.151 87.5 7.0% 19.2%vs RHP 389 11.0% 25.0% 16.7% 34

5 Oswald Peraza 34 D — WARM 167 0.109 87.6 6.6% 8.0%vs RHP 386 4.5% 0.0% 7.3% 9

6 Wade Meckler 30 D — WARM 176 0.080 87.2 4.7% 7.7%vs RHP 396 4.4% 0.0% 7.3% 36

vs Grayson Rodriguez · RHP 1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.47 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Randy Arozarena ✶ 57 C — WARM 31 0.199 90.9 8.4% 23.1%vs RHP 389 15.8% 25.0% 24.8% 35

2 Cal Raleigh 57 C — WARM 34 0.191 90.0 11.2% 15.9%vs RHP 386 16.2% 16.7% 18.4% 28

3 Dominic Canzone 57 C — · 35 0.219 91.1 10.3% 22.7%vs RHP 403 14.4% 8.3% 15.9% 39

4 Julio Rodríguez 48 D — · 79 0.153 90.3 8.7% 19.7%vs RHP 404 14.1% 8.3% 10.9% 39

5 Cole Young 43 D — WARM 113 0.137 88.3 6.6% 17.5%vs RHP 384 10.8% 10.0% 9.3% 32

6 J.P. Crawford 39 D — COOL 130 0.128 87.8 7.3% 21.6%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 44

7 Josh Naylor 35 D — WARM 159 0.089 87.1 6.3% 10.0%vs RHP 392 5.2% 0.0% 8.0% 46

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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