TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ KC

Playable air · 1.05×

CWS @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 2:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 5 mph cross 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

1:10p

-1 ↑

2:10p

-1 ↑

3:10p

-1 ↑

4:10p

-2 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at +0

Best of game Vinnie Pasquantino conv 30 · vs Sandlin ⟷ Munetaka Murakami conv 26 · vs Dobnak → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK David Sandlin RHP · CWS

leak 97

1.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.06 · leakiest side of this game

1 Vinnie Pasquantino — C ●●●●●

2 Carter Jensen — C+ ●●●●○

3 Michael Massey — D ●●○○○

FADE Randy Dobnak RHP · KC

leak 73

0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Munetaka Murakami — C+ ●●●●○

2 Miguel Vargas — C ●●●○○

3 Chase Meidroth — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: Match 34.0% · 14D pace 18.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino HOT vs Sandlin Edge — 0.169 · 90.0 · 8.5% 37.5% 22.1% F B O C 53

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ COOL vs Dobnak Edge — 0.265 · 93.7 · 9.9% 18.2% 34.0% F B O C+ 65

· KC Carter Jensen COOL vs Sandlin Edge — 0.217 · 91.3 · 9.6% 22.2% 28.8% F B O C+ 60

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Dobnak — 0.228 · 90.1 · 8.3% 23.1% 20.3% F B O C 59

· CWS Randal Grichuk vs Dobnak — 0.279 · 91.7 · 7.6% 16.7% 18.5% F B O C 57

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Sandlin Edge — 0.202 · 93.1 · 10.4% 0.0% 18.1% F B O C 56

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Dobnak Edge — 0.211 · 88.6 · 8.0% 0.0% 15.9% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs Dobnak — 0.137 · 87.3 · 5.0% 23.1% 12.8% F B O D 41

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Sandlin Edge — 0.161 · 89.4 · 6.8% 18.2% 12.8% F B O D 46

· KC Nick Loftin vs Sandlin — 0.147 · 86.8 · 5.9% 12.5% 8.8% F B O D 42

· CWS Tristan Peters COOL vs Dobnak Edge — 0.177 · 87.3 · 5.4% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 43

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Dobnak Edge — 0.169 · 89.3 · 6.6% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 45

· KC Bobby Witt COOL vs Sandlin — 0.161 · 92.3 · 9.6% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 48

· KC Salvador Perez vs Sandlin — 0.144 · 89.1 · 9.0% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 43

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Sandlin Edge — 0.111 · 88.1 · 6.3% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 38

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Dobnak Edge — 0.126 · 88.9 · 4.9% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 37

· CWS Sam Antonacci vs Dobnak Edge — 0.120 · 87.5 · 5.2% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Randy Dobnak — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for David Sandlin — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Vargas Grichuk Meidroth Jensen Pasquantino Massey

Legend

attack side — vs Sandlin fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Vinnie Pasquantino — · 53

Carter Jensen — · 60

Miguel Vargas — · 59

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 5 mph cross 76°F open

↑

5 mph · cross

66°F

1:10p · peak

-1

↑

5 mph · cross

68°F

2:10p

-1

↑

6 mph · cross

70°F

3:10p

-1

↑

6 mph · cross

72°F

4:10p

-2

↑

6 mph · cross

72°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.05× 76°F, wind 5 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Randy Dobnak · RHP 0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 65 C+ — COOL 6 0.265 93.7 9.9% 35.7%vs RHP 401 18.8% 18.2% 34.0% 20

2 Miguel Vargas 59 C — COOL 22 0.228 90.1 8.3% 18.1%vs RHP 393 20.1% 23.1% 20.3% 40

3 Randal Grichuk 57 C — · 33 0.279 91.7 7.6% 22.2%vs RHP 389 14.3% 16.7% 18.5% 33

4 Colson Montgomery 53 C — COOL 58 0.211 88.6 8.0% 26.9%vs RHP 397 20.5% 0.0% 15.9% 16

5 Andrew Benintendi 45 D — COOL 98 0.169 89.3 6.6% 14.6%vs RHP 388 11.4% 0.0% 11.0% 17

6 Tristan Peters 43 D — COOL 111 0.177 87.3 5.4% 12.9%vs RHP 377 10.4% 0.0% 11.3% 17

7 Chase Meidroth 41 D — WARM 122 0.137 87.3 5.0% 13.9%vs RHP 382 8.7% 23.1% 12.8% 37

8 Braden Montgomery 37 D — WARM 148 0.126 88.9 4.9% 17.2%vs RHP 395 6.2% 0.0% 8.9% 28

9 Sam Antonacci 37 D — WARM 150 0.120 87.5 5.2% 10.3%vs RHP 390 6.9% 0.0% 8.0% 32

vs David Sandlin · RHP 1.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.06 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Carter Jensen 60 C+ — COOL 17 0.217 91.3 9.6% 20.4%vs RHP 398 17.5% 22.2% 28.8% 25

2 Jac Caglianone 56 C — COOL 39 0.202 93.1 10.4% 28.6%vs RHP 416 13.6% 0.0% 18.1% 15

3 Vinnie Pasquantino 53 C — HOT 54 0.169 90.0 8.5% 15.8%vs RHP 396 13.3% 37.5% 22.1% 29

4 Bobby Witt 48 D — COOL 81 0.161 92.3 9.6% 15.2%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 32

5 Michael Massey 46 D — COOL 90 0.161 89.4 6.8% 11.5%vs RHP 393 8.3% 18.2% 12.8% 37

6 Salvador Perez 43 D — WARM 106 0.144 89.1 9.0% 16.9%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 28

7 Nick Loftin 42 D — · 118 0.147 86.8 5.9% 10.9%vs RHP 395 9.3% 12.5% 8.8% 25

8 Isaac Collins 38 D — COOL 141 0.111 88.1 6.3% 7.3%vs RHP 394 4.7% 0.0% 8.9% 12

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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