Randy Arozarena
RHB
SEA
· 125 appearances tracked
18
HRs
14.4%
HR Rate
19.5%
Avg HR/FB
91.0
Avg EV
0.165
ISO
#8
Best Rank
HR Profile
Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
ISO0.186
Avg EV90.6
Barrel%7.0%
HR/FB vs LHP24.0%
Avg HR Dist386
Match%18.6%
Season HR%
14.4%
14D Pace
16.7%
Pitch Analysis
season · as of 2026-08-31
Pitch
Seen
Barrel%
HR
K%
Fastball
57.4%
10
Breaking
28.6%
9
Offspeed
14.0%
1
All
100%
7.5%
20
21.2%
Barrel vs. Whiff
BRL
K
Fastball
Breaking
Offspeed
Crushes the fastball — whiffs climb on breaking & offspeed.
Batter vs. Pitcher
vs Payton Tolle · LHP · SEA
NO SAMPLE · 0 PA
—
AVG
—
SLG
—
HR
No prior plate appearances vs Payton Tolle in our data. Lean on the season profile and the modifiers below.
Modifiers
2 of 4 active
Fenway Neutral
Pitcher form Steady
Platoon Edge
Weather +2
Edge by rate
· batter ●
vs pitcher-allowed ●
Barrel%
7.0
vs
—
HR/FB
24.0
vs
11.6 ▲ edge
K%
21.2
vs
—
Batter rates are season-to-date; pitcher-allowed shown where tracked. HR/FB compared head-to-head.
HR Days
18 this season · avg 387 ft
Date
Opp · Pitcher
Pitch
EV
Dist
May 25
@ ATH · Aaron Civale
—
104.1
437.0
Aug 16
@ HOU · Hunter Brown
—
94.7
365
Aug 23
vs CHC · Shota Imanaga
—
93.8
358
HR by month
May
Aug
All Appearances
125 tracked · 18 HR · 22 top‑50
Date
Opp · Pitcher
BIP
Max EV
Result
HR
Aug 30
@ TOR · Max Scherzer
1
88.9
1 BIP
Aug 29
@ TOR · José Soriano
2
86.1
2 BIP
Aug 28
@ TOR · Dylan Cease
2
92.8
2 BIP
Aug 26
vs PHI · Jesús Luzardo
3
96.0
3 BIP
Aug 25
vs PHI · Aaron Nola
3
99.3
3 BIP
Aug 24
vs PHI · Zack Wheeler
1
91.6
1 BIP
Aug 23
vs CHC · Shota Imanaga
2
93.8
HR
2 BIP
Aug 22
vs CHC · David Peterson
4
105.3
HR
4 BIP
Aug 21
vs CHC · Matthew Boyd
4
89.7
4 BIP
Aug 20
@ MIL · Robert Gasser
1
99.7
1 BIP
Aug 19
@ MIL · Dustin May
3
108.7
3 BIP
Aug 18
@ MIL · Kyle Harrison
3
102.0
3 BIP
Aug 16
@ HOU · Hunter Brown
5
108.2
HR
5 BIP
Aug 15
@ HOU · Hayden Wesneski
3
101.2
3 BIP
Aug 14
@ HOU · Peter Lambert
2
96.3
2 BIP
Aug 13
@ NYY · Max Fried
1
106.8
1 BIP
Aug 12
@ NYY · Will Warren
3
96.0
HR
3 BIP
Aug 11
@ NYY · Ryan Weathers
3
106.7
HR
3 BIP
Aug 9
vs TB · Ian Seymour
4
98.7
4 BIP
Aug 8
vs TB · Griffin Jax
3
104.2
3 BIP
Aug 7
vs TB · Drew Rasmussen
3
99.0
3 BIP
Aug 6
vs DET · Framber Valdez
2
73.3
2 BIP
Aug 5
vs DET · Drew Anderson
4
104.9
4 BIP
Aug 4
vs DET · Troy Melton
4
98.3
4 BIP
Aug 2
vs MIN · Taj Bradley
4
111.2
4 BIP
Aug 1
vs MIN · Connor Prielipp
3
106.3
HR
3 BIP
Jul 31
vs MIN · Zebby Matthews
1
90.9
1 BIP
Jul 30
@ LAD · Roki Sasaki
4
105.8
4 BIP
Jul 29
@ LAD · Eric Lauer
3
93.8
3 BIP
Jul 28
@ LAD · Justin Wrobleski
3
88.3
3 BIP
Jul 27
@ TEX · Kumar Rocker
2
103.3
HR
2 BIP
Jul 26
@ TEX · Jacob deGrom
5
101.2
HR
5 BIP
Jul 25
@ TEX · Nathan Eovaldi
3
104.0
3 BIP
Jul 24
@ TEX · MacKenzie Gore
4
100.6
4 BIP
Jul 22
vs CIN · Brady Singer
4
105.7
4 BIP
Jul 21
vs CIN · Chase Burns
2
99.5
2 BIP
Jul 20
vs CIN · Andrew Abbott
3
109.1
3 BIP
Jul 19
vs SF · Robbie Ray
3
105.7
3 BIP
Jul 18
vs SF · Logan Webb
1
68.0
1 BIP
Jul 17
vs SF · Landen Roupp
3
89.2
3 BIP
Jul 12
@ TB · Ian Seymour
3
101.7
HR
3 BIP
Jul 11
@ TB · Griffin Jax
2
87.0
2 BIP
Jul 10
@ TB · Nick Martinez
3
104.0
3 BIP
Jul 9
@ MIA · Janson Junk
3
104.4
HR
3 BIP
Jul 8
@ MIA · Tyler Phillips
3
104.7
3 BIP
Jul 7
@ MIA · Max Meyer
3
89.2
3 BIP
Jul 5
vs TOR · Trey Yesavage
3
95.7
3 BIP
Jul 4
vs TOR · Shane Bieber
4
105.2
HR
4 BIP
Jul 3
vs TOR · Dylan Cease
2
90.9
2 BIP
Jul 2
vs LAA · Walbert Ureña
2
92.0
2 BIP
Jun 30
vs LAA · José Soriano
2
108.3
2 BIP
Jun 29
vs LAA · Ryan Johnson
3
105.6
3 BIP
Jun 28
@ CLE · Gavin Williams
4
100.3
4 BIP
Jun 27
@ CLE · Slade Cecconi
4
108.3
HR
4 BIP
Jun 26
@ CLE · Joey Cantillo
2
101.8
2 BIP
Jun 25
@ PIT · Bubba Chandler
3
96.8
3 BIP
Jun 24
@ PIT · Braxton Ashcraft
1
88.7
1 BIP
Jun 23
@ PIT · Mitch Keller
1
90.6
1 BIP
Jun 16
vs BAL · Brandon Young
0
—
—
Jun 12
@ WSH · Zack Littell
2
88.3
2 BIP
Jun 11
@ BAL · Kyle Bradish
2
104.5
2 BIP
Jun 10
@ BAL · Brandon Young
3
102.6
3 BIP
Jun 9
@ BAL · Trevor Rogers
5
105.5
HR
5 BIP
Jun 8
@ BAL · Trey Gibson
4
100.7
4 BIP
Jun 7
@ DET · Jack Flaherty
2
104.6
2 BIP
Jun 6
@ DET · Keider Montero
3
106.9
3 BIP
Jun 5
@ DET · Framber Valdez
3
103.7
3 BIP
Jun 3
vs NYM · Freddy Peralta
1
94.5
1 BIP
Jun 1
vs NYM · Austin Warren
2
93.8
2 BIP
May 31
vs AZ · Merrill Kelly
4
106.5
4 BIP
May 30
vs AZ · Ryne Nelson
4
106.3
4 BIP
May 29
vs AZ · Zac Gallen
5
98.2
5 BIP
May 27
@ ATH · Jeffrey Springs
4
106.8
4 BIP
May 25
@ ATH · Aaron Civale
4
104.1
HR
4 BIP
May 24
@ KC · Seth Lugo
3
101.5
3 BIP
May 23
@ KC · Stephen Kolek
3
104.0
3 BIP
May 22
@ KC · Noah Cameron
1
81.9
1 BIP
May 20
vs CWS · Sean Burke
2
105.1
HR
2 BIP
May 19
vs CWS · Anthony Kay
2
86.7
2 BIP
May 18
vs CWS · Noah Schultz
2
102.1
2 BIP
May 17
vs SD · Lucas Giolito
3
101.5
3 BIP
May 16
vs SD · Walker Buehler
2
102.3
2 BIP
May 15
vs SD · Randy Vásquez
4
102.6
4 BIP
May 14
@ HOU · Mike Burrows
2
91.4
2 BIP
May 13
@ HOU · Lance McCullers Jr.
3
101.4
3 BIP
May 12
@ HOU · Tatsuya Imai
4
103.8
HR
4 BIP
May 11
@ HOU · Peter Lambert
3
104.4
3 BIP
May 10
@ CWS · Davis Martin
1
100.1
1 BIP
May 9
@ CWS · Anthony Kay
2
93.4
2 BIP
May 8
@ CWS · Sean Burke
4
108.7
4 BIP
May 6
vs ATL · Martín Pérez
3
97.2
3 BIP
May 5
vs ATL · Bryce Elder
2
96.1
2 BIP
May 4
vs ATL · JR Ritchie
3
99.1
3 BIP
May 3
vs KC · Kris Bubic
3
105.9
3 BIP
May 2
vs KC · Seth Lugo
2
99.9
2 BIP
May 1
vs KC · Cole Ragans
1
96.5
HR
1 BIP
Apr 29
@ MIN · Taj Bradley
2
102.7
2 BIP
Apr 28
@ MIN · Joe Ryan
2
108.7
2 BIP
Apr 27
@ MIN · Connor Prielipp
2
99.1
2 BIP
Apr 26
@ STL · Michael McGreevy
1
95.8
1 BIP
Apr 25
@ STL · Matthew Liberatore
5
110.1
5 BIP
Apr 24
@ STL · Andre Pallante
1
95.5
1 BIP
Apr 22
vs ATH · Aaron Civale
4
105.1
4 BIP
Apr 21
vs ATH · Jacob Lopez
4
86.6
4 BIP
Apr 20
vs ATH · J.T. Ginn
1
87.8
1 BIP
Apr 19
vs TEX · MacKenzie Gore
3
113.0
HR
3 BIP
Apr 18
vs TEX · Nathan Eovaldi
2
92.6
2 BIP
Apr 17
vs TEX · Jacob deGrom
3
89.8
3 BIP
Apr 16
@ SD · Walker Buehler
3
94.6
3 BIP
Apr 15
@ SD · Randy Vásquez
4
100.0
4 BIP
Apr 14
@ SD · Michael King
3
92.2
3 BIP
Apr 13
vs HOU · Mike Burrows
4
98.5
4 BIP
Apr 11
vs HOU · Lance McCullers Jr.
2
102.4
2 BIP
Apr 8
@ TEX · MacKenzie Gore
1
88.4
1 BIP
Apr 7
@ TEX · Nathan Eovaldi
1
93.5
1 BIP
Apr 6
@ TEX · Jacob deGrom
2
99.8
2 BIP
Apr 5
@ LAA · Ryan Johnson
2
100.6
2 BIP
Apr 4
@ LAA · Jack Kochanowicz
3
75.6
3 BIP
Apr 1
vs NYY · Cam Schlittler
3
104.1
3 BIP
Mar 31
vs NYY · Max Fried
3
101.9
3 BIP
Mar 30
vs NYY · Ryan Weathers
3
108.1
3 BIP
Mar 29
vs CLE · Slade Cecconi
4
101.8
4 BIP
Mar 28
vs CLE · Joey Cantillo
4
108.3
4 BIP
Mar 27
vs CLE · Gavin Williams
1
109.6
1 BIP
Mar 26
vs CLE · Tanner Bibee
3
106.4
3 BIP
Ballpark
Fenway Park · open-air
Park Factor
0.909
Wind
8 mph from SSE
Temp
78°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
6:45p
8 ↗
78°
+1
7:45p
10 ↗
78°
+5
8:45p
10 ↗
77°
+6
9:45p
9 ↗
76°
+5
10:45p
8 ↗
76°
+5
+4
Neutral alignment
true spray · live hourly FIT · open-air wind signal
HIT LOCATIONS'25–'26
Game-window avg wind · blowing out to pull (from S)
TONIGHT
board — not posted yet
next game Mon 8/31
Dueness now
1.20×
overdue — gap ÷ cadence
Cadence
5 gm
median between HRs, game-days
Current gap
6 gm
since his last HR, Aug 23
Season
18 HR
125 games · 2 HR last 14d
Rhythm tightness
his gaps between HRs, in game-days — tight columns = metronome, spread = streaky
one dot per gap · 17 gaps · median 5 gm · MAD ± 3 gm · now marker = current gap
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
Rhythm observation, not a prediction — the “g+n” counters and crossing marks only read his own history. See tonight’s board for the model’s actual ranking. Model picks · For entertainment.
Score Breakdown
Base 43 → 43
ISO (Power)
Barrel Matchup
season hr rate
HR/FB Matchup
Park Factor
recent hr density 14d
Exit Velocity
Pitcher FIP
Common questions about Randy Arozarena
Will Randy Arozarena hit a home run today?
Randy Arozarena is on today's TheHomeRuns slate, ranked #95 among tonight's scored batters for home run likelihood, facing Payton Tolle at Fenway Park. That's a model ranking, not a prediction of a certain outcome — even the model's top-ranked bats homer in roughly one of five games. Not gambling advice.
How often does Randy Arozarena hit home runs?
Across 125 scored games this season, Randy Arozarena has 18 home runs — one every 6.9 games, or about 14% of his scored games.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.