Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-09-13T11:00:30-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-09-13
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Adael Amador | Jackson Jobe | Curveball | +17.4 | +1.7 | 12% | 1 | 1 | #47 | |
| · | Andres Chaparro | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +3.7 | +1.3 | 53% | 7 | 10 | #27 | |
| · | Walker Jenkins | Tanner Bibee | Cutter | +11.5 | -0.5 | 24% | 0 | 11 | #159 | |
| · | James Wood | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +2.3 | +1.3 | 53% | 11 | 10 | #2 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Christian Scott | Fastball | +4.4 | +0.1 | 48% | 17 | 7 | #6 | |
| · | Bryce Eldridge | Nick Pivetta | Fastball | +4.7 | -1.5 | 51% | 8 | 1 | #127 | |
| · | Jacob Young | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +1.8 | +1.3 | 53% | 6 | 10 | #87 | |
| · | Jake Bauers | Chase Burns | Fastball | +2.4 | -0.6 | 56% | 7 | 9 | #34 | |
| · | Jose Altuve | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +2.3 | +0.3 | 53% | 7 | 12 | #149 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +1.2 | +1.3 | 53% | 4 | 10 | #26 | |
| · | Jackson Chourio | Chase Burns | Fastball | +2.0 | -0.6 | 56% | 8 | 9 | #66 | |
| · | Yordan Alvarez | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +1.7 | +0.3 | 53% | 12 | 12 | #20 | |
| · | Abimelec Ortiz | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +1.0 | +1.3 | 53% | 3 | 10 | #58 | |
| · | Jeremy Peña | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +1.8 | +0.3 | 53% | 3 | 12 | #78 | |
| · | Zac Veen | Jackson Jobe | Curveball | +9.7 | +1.7 | 12% | 1 | 1 | #102 | |
| · | Yainer Diaz | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +1.4 | +0.3 | 53% | 4 | 12 | #96 | |
| · | Keibert Ruiz | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.2 | +1.3 | 53% | 3 | 10 | #57 | |
| · | Randal Grichuk | Michael McGreevy | Sweeper | +9.4 | +1.8 | 11% | 3 | 3 | #60 | |
| · | Adael Amador | Jackson Jobe | Fastball | +3.0 | +2.2 | 36% | 1 | 3 | #47 | |
| · | Hao-Yu Lee | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +2.0 | -0.8 | 52% | 4 | 2 | #141 | |
| · | Max Clark | Gabriel Hughes | Sweeper | +10.2 | +1.1 | 9% | 2 | 1 | #173 | |
| · | Charles Mcadoo | Trevor Rogers | Cutter | +11.2 | -0.3 | 9% | 1 | 1 | #200 | |
| · | Yandy Diaz | Hayden Wesneski | Sweeper | +7.5 | -1.9 | 30% | 5 | 0 | #136 | |
| · | Seiya Suzuki | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +1.7 | +0.1 | 48% | 8 | 6 | #40 | |
| · | Jose Tena | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | -0.4 | +1.3 | 53% | 2 | 10 | #72 | |
| · | Taylor Trammell | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +0.5 | +0.3 | 53% | 5 | 12 | #94 | |
| · | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +1.5 | +0.1 | 48% | 17 | 6 | #3 | |
| · | Zack Gelof | Bryce Miller | Splitter | +7.3 | -0.6 | 24% | 1 | 4 | #15 | |
| · | Daylen Lile | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | -0.7 | +1.3 | 53% | 5 | 10 | #31 | |
| · | Cam Smith | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +0.2 | +0.3 | 53% | 5 | 12 | #37 |
🔥 Batter Arsenal Preview
Yordan Alvarez
+48.8 RV
Pete Crow-Armstrong
+44.6 RV
Kyle Schwarber
+38.6 RV
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+47.3 RV allowed
Brady Singer
+30.2 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+27.4 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.