Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-09-07T11:00:26-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-09-07
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Mickey Gasper | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +6.4 | +1.0 | 54% | 5 | 8 | #15 | |
| · | Hao-Yu Lee | Joe Ryan | Splitter | +16.7 | -0.9 | 12% | 1 | 2 | #75 | |
| · | Max Muncy | Chase Burns | Fastball | +3.0 | -0.6 | 56% | 17 | 9 | #11 | |
| · | Roman Anthony | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +1.0 | +1.0 | 54% | 0 | 8 | #71 | |
| · | James Wood | Nick Pivetta | Fastball | +2.2 | -1.0 | 54% | 11 | 1 | #25 | |
| · | Adley Rutschman | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.6 | +1.0 | 54% | 4 | 8 | #66 | |
| · | Griffin Conine | Jonah Tong | Fastball | +2.7 | +1.0 | 44% | 7 | 0 | #38 | |
| · | Freddie Freeman | Chase Burns | Fastball | +1.2 | -0.6 | 56% | 9 | 9 | #79 | |
| · | Caleb Durbin | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.3 | +1.0 | 54% | 4 | 8 | #144 | |
| · | Jacob Young | Nick Pivetta | Fastball | +1.7 | -1.0 | 54% | 6 | 1 | #157 | |
| · | Wilyer Abreu | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.0 | +1.0 | 54% | 9 | 8 | #26 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Nick Pivetta | Fastball | +1.4 | -1.0 | 54% | 4 | 1 | #63 | |
| · | Tommy Edman | Chase Burns | Slider | +5.3 | -1.6 | 38% | 3 | 4 | #97 | |
| · | Kyle Tucker | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.7 | -0.6 | 56% | 7 | 9 | #109 | |
| · | Kaelen Culpepper | Troy Melton | Fastball | +5.4 | -0.1 | 33% | 2 | 7 | #131 | |
| · | Eli White | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | -0.3 | +1.0 | 54% | 1 | 8 | #93 | |
| · | Joe Mack | Jonah Tong | Fastball | +1.6 | +1.0 | 44% | 6 | 0 | #110 | |
| · | Otto Lopez | Jonah Tong | Fastball | +1.3 | +1.0 | 44% | 5 | 0 | #138 | |
| · | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | -1.1 | +1.0 | 54% | 1 | 8 | #149 | |
| · | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Joey Cantillo | Changeup | +5.7 | +0.1 | 25% | 3 | 4 | #17 | |
| · | Hao-Yu Lee | Joe Ryan | Fastball | +1.4 | -0.2 | 45% | 4 | 10 | #75 | |
| · | Trevor Story | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | -1.3 | +1.0 | 54% | 0 | 8 | #126 | |
| · | Nico Hoerner | Robert Gasser | Sweeper | +4.7 | +1.3 | 25% | 2 | 5 | #162 | |
| · | Jorbit Vivas | Nick Pivetta | Fastball | +0.1 | -1.0 | 54% | 1 | 1 | #167 | |
| · | Angel Genao | Trevor Rogers | Fastball | +1.1 | -0.7 | 46% | 0 | 10 | #124 | |
| · | Javier Sanoja | Jonah Tong | Fastball | +0.4 | +1.0 | 44% | 1 | 0 | #151 | |
| · | Jarren Duran | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | -2.1 | +1.0 | 54% | 9 | 8 | #59 | |
| · | Owen Caissie | Jonah Tong | Fastball | +0.3 | +1.0 | 44% | 6 | 0 | #80 | |
| · | Juan Soto | Eury Perez | Fastball | +2.3 | -0.6 | 38% | 8 | 7 | #14 | |
| · | Dillon Dingler | Joe Ryan | Fastball | +0.6 | -0.2 | 45% | 7 | 10 | #46 |
🔥 Batter Arsenal Preview
Yordan Alvarez
+49.6 RV
Pete Crow-Armstrong
+41.6 RV
Kyle Schwarber
+37.0 RV
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+46.3 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+26.8 RV allowed
Zack Littell
+25.1 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.