Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_14 - 2026-08-14T14:00:33-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-14
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Cj Abrams | Robert Stock | Cutter | +7.1 | +2.0 | 29% | 6 | 1 | #21 | |
| · | Colton Cowser | Steven Matz | Sinker | +2.5 | +1.6 | 49% | 3 | 8 | #69 | |
| · | Coby Mayo | Steven Matz | Sinker | +2.1 | +1.6 | 49% | 4 | 8 | #14 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Shane Bieber | Knuckle Curve | +7.5 | +3.0 | 18% | 0 | 1 | #7 | |
| · | Jac Caglianone | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +1.0 | +1.4 | 53% | 7 | 6 | #28 | |
| · | Otto Lopez | Chase Burns | Fastball | +1.6 | -0.5 | 56% | 4 | 7 | #124 | |
| · | Xavier Edwards | Chase Burns | Fastball | +1.7 | -0.5 | 56% | 3 | 7 | #165 | |
| · | Nick Loftin | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.6 | +1.4 | 53% | 3 | 6 | #157 | |
| · | Leody Taveras | Steven Matz | Sinker | +1.1 | +1.6 | 49% | 1 | 8 | #100 | |
| · | Bobby Witt | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.2 | +1.4 | 53% | 1 | 6 | #121 | |
| · | Carter Jensen | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.0 | +1.4 | 53% | 7 | 6 | #74 | |
| · | Javier Sanoja | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.8 | -0.5 | 56% | 1 | 7 | #151 | |
| · | Pete Alonso | Steven Matz | Sinker | +0.5 | +1.6 | 49% | 5 | 8 | #8 | |
| · | Gunnar Henderson | Steven Matz | Sinker | +0.7 | +1.6 | 49% | 3 | 8 | #48 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Shane Bieber | Fastball | +4.6 | +0.3 | 34% | 15 | 3 | #7 | |
| · | Ryan Waldschmidt | Chris Sale | Slider | +4.8 | -1.4 | 39% | 1 | 0 | #150 | |
| · | Isaac Collins | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | -0.5 | +1.4 | 53% | 1 | 6 | #169 | |
| · | Kazuma Okamoto | Gerrit Cole | Fastball | +3.0 | -1.9 | 48% | 10 | 4 | #68 | |
| · | Salvador Perez | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | -1.0 | +1.4 | 53% | 4 | 6 | #135 | |
| · | Hunter Goodman | Landen Roupp | Sinker | +4.3 | -0.2 | 35% | 6 | 6 | #30 | |
| · | Willson Contreras | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +1.1 | -0.2 | 48% | 4 | 5 | #33 | |
| · | Michael Massey | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | -1.3 | +1.4 | 53% | 3 | 6 | #136 | |
| · | Junior Caminero | Chris Bassitt | Sinker | +2.4 | +1.0 | 37% | 9 | 2 | #6 | |
| · | Rafael Devers | Kyle Freeland | Knuckle Curve | +5.3 | +1.8 | 21% | 1 | 5 | #49 | |
| · | Myles Straw | Gerrit Cole | Knuckle Curve | +7.8 | +0.9 | 13% | 0 | 2 | #185 | |
| · | Bryce Eldridge | Kyle Freeland | Fastball | +3.7 | +2.6 | 25% | 7 | 9 | #83 | |
| · | Masyn Winn | Clay Holmes | Sinker | +0.7 | -0.9 | 50% | 1 | 3 | #181 | |
| · | Corbin Carroll | Chris Sale | Slider | +3.3 | -1.4 | 39% | 3 | 0 | #23 | |
| · | Jordan Walker | Clay Holmes | Sinker | +0.5 | -0.9 | 50% | 3 | 3 | #45 | |
| · | Paul Goldschmidt | Shane Bieber | Fastball | +3.0 | +0.3 | 34% | 9 | 3 | #47 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+40.6 RV allowed
Aaron Nola
+26.4 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+25.8 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.