Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-08-13T11:00:57-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-13
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Kody Clemens | Aaron Nola | Knuckle Curve | +17.3 | -0.6 | 33% | 1 | 8 | #9 | |
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | Keider Montero | Knuckle Curve | +15.2 | +2.4 | 14% | 2 | 4 | #43 | |
| · | Dylan Crews | Kevin Gausman | Splitter | +9.1 | +0.0 | 39% | 1 | 4 | #22 | |
| · | Randal Grichuk | Andrew Abbott | Sweeper | +11.8 | +0.2 | 20% | 3 | 3 | #33 | |
| · | Weston Wilson | Max Fried | Curveball | +12.8 | -1.5 | 13% | 1 | 0 | #100 | |
| · | Spencer Horwitz | Tyler Phillips | Splitter | +9.9 | -1.8 | 24% | 1 | 1 | #89 | |
| · | Bryce Harper | Taj Bradley | Fastball | +3.6 | -0.4 | 47% | 12 | 8 | #12 | |
| · | Braden Montgomery | Andrew Abbott | Fastball | +3.3 | +0.0 | 46% | 2 | 10 | #80 | |
| · | Kazuma Okamoto | Payton Tolle | Fastball | +3.0 | -0.4 | 47% | 10 | 7 | #48 | |
| · | Jake Bauers | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +2.0 | +1.8 | 42% | 5 | 12 | #1 | |
| · | Daylen Lile | Kevin Gausman | Splitter | +4.2 | +0.0 | 39% | 1 | 4 | #35 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Logan Gilbert | Fastball | +4.7 | -1.1 | 40% | 15 | 11 | #4 | |
| · | Jackson Chourio | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +1.8 | +1.8 | 42% | 6 | 12 | #6 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Kevin Gausman | Fastball | +1.9 | -0.9 | 51% | 4 | 8 | #11 | |
| · | Jacob Young | Kevin Gausman | Fastball | +1.9 | -0.9 | 51% | 6 | 8 | #51 | |
| · | Jacob Young | Kevin Gausman | Splitter | +3.6 | +0.0 | 39% | 0 | 4 | #51 | |
| · | Travis Bazzana | Keider Montero | Knuckle Curve | +7.3 | +2.4 | 14% | 0 | 4 | #103 | |
| · | Max Clark | Parker Messick | Slider | +10.7 | +0.6 | 5% | 0 | 3 | #108 | |
| · | Jared Triolo | Tyler Phillips | Splitter | +8.3 | -1.8 | 24% | 0 | 1 | #137 | |
| · | Kyle Schwarber | Taj Bradley | Fastball | +2.0 | -0.4 | 47% | 10 | 8 | #2 | |
| · | Esteury Ruiz | Braxton Ashcraft | Fastball | +4.1 | +0.7 | 32% | 4 | 9 | #69 | |
| · | Willson Contreras | Max Scherzer | Fastball | +1.0 | +0.0 | 47% | 4 | 3 | #5 | |
| · | Sam Antonacci | Andrew Abbott | Fastball | +1.4 | +0.0 | 46% | 6 | 10 | #81 | |
| · | Luke Keaschall | Aaron Nola | Knuckle Curve | +4.7 | -0.6 | 33% | 0 | 8 | #93 | |
| · | David Hamilton | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +0.5 | +1.8 | 42% | 3 | 12 | #84 | |
| · | Trea Turner | Taj Bradley | Fastball | +1.0 | -0.4 | 47% | 5 | 8 | #61 | |
| · | Jesús Sánchez | Payton Tolle | Fastball | +1.0 | -0.4 | 47% | 3 | 7 | #72 | |
| · | Javier Baez | Parker Messick | Fastball | +4.4 | -2.3 | 38% | 1 | 4 | #134 | |
| · | Brice Turang | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +0.0 | +1.8 | 42% | 6 | 12 | #23 | |
| · | Paul Goldschmidt | Logan Gilbert | Fastball | +3.0 | -1.1 | 40% | 9 | 11 | #34 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+40.6 RV allowed
Aaron Nola
+26.3 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+25.7 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.