Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-08-09T11:00:29-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-09
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Jimmy Crooks | Michael Lorenzen | Sweeper | +16.8 | +1.5 | 8% | 2 | 1 | #95 | |
| · | Griffin Conine | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +2.6 | +1.7 | 53% | 4 | 6 | #24 | |
| · | Xavier Edwards | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +2.1 | +1.7 | 53% | 3 | 6 | #201 | |
| · | Otto Lopez | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +1.5 | +1.7 | 53% | 4 | 6 | #140 | |
| · | Michael Conforto | Randy Dobnak | Sinker | +7.6 | -2.4 | 39% | 2 | 1 | #77 | |
| · | Ryan Kreidler | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.6 | -2.0 | 64% | 3 | 6 | #196 | |
| · | Trevor Larnach | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.2 | -2.0 | 64% | 3 | 6 | #153 | |
| · | Javier Sanoja | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.7 | +1.7 | 53% | 1 | 6 | #193 | |
| · | Jose Tena | Brady Singer | Sinker | +2.5 | +0.6 | 48% | 2 | 10 | #73 | |
| · | Owen Caissie | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.1 | +1.7 | 53% | 5 | 6 | #57 | |
| · | Josh Bell | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +0.7 | -2.0 | 64% | 6 | 6 | #146 | |
| · | Luke Keaschall | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +0.7 | -2.0 | 64% | 6 | 6 | #220 | |
| · | Manny Machado | Cristian Javier | Fastball | +1.4 | +0.6 | 51% | 11 | 2 | #48 | |
| · | Brooks Lee | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +0.2 | -2.0 | 64% | 6 | 6 | #181 | |
| · | Willson Contreras | J. T. Ginn | Sinker | +6.2 | -1.6 | 34% | 9 | 4 | #31 | |
| · | Nico Hoerner | Randy Dobnak | Sweeper | +6.4 | +0.3 | 27% | 2 | 1 | #190 | |
| · | Jakob Marsee | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | -0.8 | +1.7 | 53% | 4 | 6 | #194 | |
| · | Jake Mangum | Sean Manaea | Sweeper | +3.8 | +2.3 | 30% | 0 | 3 | #211 | |
| · | Kyle Stowers | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | -0.9 | +1.7 | 53% | 3 | 6 | #30 | |
| · | Heriberto Hernández | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | -0.9 | +1.7 | 53% | 4 | 6 | #41 | |
| · | Bryan Reynolds | Sean Manaea | Sweeper | +3.6 | +2.3 | 30% | 1 | 3 | #72 | |
| · | Xander Bogaerts | Cristian Javier | Fastball | +0.3 | +0.6 | 51% | 4 | 2 | #182 | |
| · | Bryce Harper | Shane Bieber | Fastball | +3.7 | +0.3 | 35% | 12 | 3 | #2 | |
| · | Sal Stewart | Brad Lord | Fastball | +3.5 | +0.3 | 36% | 10 | 2 | #7 | |
| · | Gavin Sheets | Cristian Javier | Fastball | +0.1 | +0.6 | 51% | 6 | 2 | #123 | |
| · | Jonah Heim | Erik Miller | Changeup | +2.7 | +10.1 | 5% | 2 | 0 | #129 | |
| · | Braden Montgomery | Joey Cantillo | Fastball | +3.0 | +1.0 | 34% | 2 | 8 | #133 | |
| · | Ryan Waldschmidt | Justin Wrobleski | Slider | +5.0 | +0.0 | 29% | 1 | 5 | #160 | |
| · | Jake Cronenworth | Cristian Javier | Fastball | -0.2 | +0.6 | 51% | 2 | 2 | #214 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Grant Holmes | Fastball | +4.8 | +0.1 | 30% | 15 | 7 | #3 |
🔥 Batter Arsenal Preview
Yordan Alvarez
+46.0 RV
Willson Contreras
+34.2 RV
Pete Crow-Armstrong
+34.2 RV
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+38.2 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+25.8 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.6 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.