2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
J. T. Ginn
J. T. Ginn
112 matchups scored · 13 game days
7 HRs Allowed
6.2% HR Rate (Pool)
HR Vulnerability Snapshot Pool + today context
0.54
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
·
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
·
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
·
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
·
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
·
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
·
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
6.2%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
112
Pool Matchups
7
HRs Allowed (Pool)
10
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
6.2%
HR Rate
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
13 days · 7 total HRs
HRs Allowed
7 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-06-09 Jackson Chourio #25 63 Las Vegas Ballpark 94.5mph 26.0° 354ft
2026-06-04 Ian Happ #18 63 Wrigley Field 108.1mph 37.0° 446ft
2026-06-04 Pete Crow-Armstrong #45 54 Wrigley Field 110.1mph 24.0° 383ft
2026-05-18 Zach Neto #57 58 Angel Stadium 105.8mph 26.0° 413.0ft
2026-05-07 Kyle Schwarber #16 46 Citizens Bank Park 108.8mph 21.0° 377.0ft
2026-05-01 Rhys Hoskins #84 34 Sutter Health Park 95.0mph 31.0° 376.0ft
2026-04-20 Cal Raleigh #109 35 T-Mobile Park 106.0mph 32.0° 382.0ft
All Scored Matchups
112 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-06-20 Nolan Schanuel #162 36 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-20 Jo Adell #130 44 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-20 Oswald Peraza #125 45 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-20 Logan O'Hoppe #100 48 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-20 Vaughn Grissom #99 48 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-20 Zach Neto #13 73 🟡 B 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-15 Jake Mangum #144 21 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-15 Marcell Ozuna #121 35 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-15 Nick Gonzales #103 40 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-15 Ryan O'Hearn #55 53 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-15 Bryan Reynolds #44 57 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-15 Spencer Horwitz #27 62 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-15 Brandon Lowe #14 70 🟡 B 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-09 Luis Rengifo #214 23 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-09 Sal Frelick #182 34 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-09 Christian Yelich #140 40 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-09 William Contreras #120 43 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-09 David Hamilton #77 51 🟠 C 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-09 Garrett Mitchell #65 53 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-09 Brice Turang #39 58 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-09 Jackson Chourio #25 63 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-06-09 Jake Bauers #5 76 🟡 B ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-04 Nico Hoerner #129 30 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-04 Alex Bregman #121 31 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-04 Dansby Swanson #116 33 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-04 Pedro Ramírez #92 39 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-04 Moisés Ballesteros #91 39 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-04 Michael Busch #70 45 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-04 Pete Crow-Armstrong #45 54 🟠 C 🔥 HOT 💥
2026-06-04 Ian Happ #18 63 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL 💥
2026-06-04 Michael Conforto #14 66 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-30 José Caballero #204 35 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-30 Austin Wells #163 41 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-30 Trent Grisham #106 50 🟠 C ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-30 Jazz Chisholm #101 52 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-30 Paul Goldschmidt #64 57 🟠 C ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-30 Ryan Mcmahon #55 60 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-30 Cody Bellinger #50 61 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-30 Ben Rice #10 77 🟡 B 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-30 Aaron Judge #9 78 🟡 B ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-23 fernando tatís #277 19 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-23 jake cronenworth #273 22 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-23 xander bogaerts #221 34 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-23 jackson merrill #215 35 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-23 ramón laureano #183 40 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-23 nick castellanos #156 43 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-23 miguel andújar #121 48 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-23 manny machado #120 48 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-23 gavin sheets #55 61 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-18 Logan O'Hoppe #186 36 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-18 Nolan Schanuel #185 36 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-18 Yoán Moncada #173 39 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-18 Josh Lowe #138 42 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-18 Oswald Peraza #90 51 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-18 Jo Adell #71 54 🟠 C 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-18 Zach Neto #57 58 🟠 C 📈 WARM 💥
2026-05-18 Jorge Soler #38 62 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-18 Mike Trout #12 81 🟢 A ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-13 Victor Scott II #210 21 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-13 Masyn Winn #120 33 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-13 Pedro Pagés #65 40 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-13 Ivan Herrera #64 40 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-13 Nolan Gorman #39 45 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-13 Nathan Church #33 46 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-13 Alec Burleson #32 46 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-13 JJ Wetherholt #27 48 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-13 Jordan Walker #8 57 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-07 Justin Crawford #129 21 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-07 Bryson Stott #98 29 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-07 J.T. Realmuto #91 31 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-07 Trea Turner #90 31 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-07 Alec Bohm #86 32 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-07 Adolis García #63 36 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-07 Bryce Harper #48 39 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-07 Brandon Marsh #29 42 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-07 Kyle Schwarber #16 46 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-05-01 Kyle Manzardo #163 25 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-01 Bo Naylor #155 26 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-01 Steven Kwan #143 27 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-01 Brayan Rocchio #131 28 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-01 Rhys Hoskins #84 34 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-05-01 Chase DeLauter #47 39 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-01 Angel Martínez #36 41 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-01 José Ramírez #25 44 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-01 Daniel Schneemann #17 46 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-26 Alejandro Osuna #273 13 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-26 Josh Smith #264 19 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-26 Joc Pederson #263 19 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-26 Danny Jansen #259 20 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-26 Jake Burger #212 31 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-26 Evan Carter #206 32 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-26 Josh Jung #172 38 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-26 Brandon Nimmo #151 41 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-26 Corey Seager #144 42 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-20 Leo Rivas #151 22 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-20 Josh Naylor #142 26 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-20 Cole Young #138 28 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-20 Brendan Donovan #135 29 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-20 Julio Rodríguez #126 32 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-20 Cal Raleigh #109 35 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-04-20 J.P. Crawford #105 36 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-20 Randy Arozarena #92 40 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-20 Luke Raley #15 67 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-10 Jared Young #224 29 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-10 Marcus Semien #156 32 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-10 Bo Bichette #97 38 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-10 Carson Benge #80 40 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-10 Ronny Mauricio #75 36 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-10 Francisco Lindor #65 42 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-10 Luis Robert Jr. #61 37 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-10 Brett Baty #49 43 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-10 Francisco Alvarez #14 45 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
Six home runs to freedom

J. T. Ginn's full pitcher profile is waiting

Upgrade to see vulnerability signals, today’s threat breakdown, recent splits, batted-ball damage, and every scored matchup.

112 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 501

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.