Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-08-07T17:00:26-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-07
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Jimmy Crooks | Ryan Feltner | Sweeper | +16.9 | +3.4 | 11% | 2 | 3 | #91 | |
| · | Jackson Holliday | Nathan Eovaldi | Splitter | +12.1 | -1.4 | 37% | 1 | 7 | #110 | |
| · | Jake Burger | Shane Baz | Knuckle Curve | +10.8 | +0.6 | 33% | 1 | 2 | #37 | |
| · | Tyler Tolbert | Kevin Gausman | Slider | +12.6 | +3.0 | 10% | 1 | 5 | #125 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Tyler Mahle | Fastball | +5.1 | -0.3 | 48% | 15 | 8 | #5 | |
| · | Esteury Ruiz | George Klassen | Fastball | +3.3 | +2.4 | 41% | 3 | 1 | #98 | |
| · | Griffin Conine | George Klassen | Fastball | +2.8 | +2.4 | 41% | 4 | 1 | #18 | |
| · | Joe Mack | George Klassen | Fastball | +2.8 | +2.4 | 41% | 6 | 1 | #48 | |
| · | Kevin Mcgonigle | JT Brubaker | Sinker | +3.6 | -0.4 | 47% | 5 | 3 | #155 | |
| · | Elly De La Cruz | Cade Cavalli | Knuckle Curve | +7.2 | -0.4 | 27% | 1 | 2 | #15 | |
| · | Gleyber Torres | JT Brubaker | Sinker | +2.8 | -0.4 | 47% | 3 | 3 | #154 | |
| · | Xavier Edwards | George Klassen | Fastball | +2.1 | +2.4 | 41% | 3 | 1 | #201 | |
| · | Heliot Ramos | Tyler Mahle | Splitter | +6.3 | +0.9 | 25% | 1 | 3 | #67 | |
| · | Carter Jensen | Kevin Gausman | Splitter | +4.0 | +0.4 | 38% | 2 | 4 | #76 | |
| · | Otto Lopez | George Klassen | Fastball | +1.7 | +2.4 | 41% | 4 | 1 | #133 | |
| · | Max Muncy | Payton Tolle | Fastball | +2.2 | -0.3 | 47% | 11 | 6 | #38 | |
| · | Manny Machado | Ronel Blanco | Fastball | +1.5 | +3.6 | 36% | 11 | 2 | #28 | |
| · | Harry Ford | Chase Petty | Changeup | +6.8 | +0.1 | 24% | 0 | 0 | #56 | |
| · | Gabriel Moreno | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +1.4 | +1.7 | 42% | 5 | 11 | #121 | |
| · | Riley Greene | JT Brubaker | Sinker | +1.9 | -0.4 | 47% | 1 | 3 | #118 | |
| · | Nick Loftin | Kevin Gausman | Fastball | +1.3 | -1.1 | 52% | 3 | 7 | #149 | |
| · | Nolan Arenado | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +1.1 | +1.7 | 42% | 9 | 11 | #66 | |
| · | Ceddanne Rafaela | Jack Perkins | Sweeper | +5.6 | -0.4 | 29% | 3 | 3 | #81 | |
| · | Jac Caglianone | Kevin Gausman | Fastball | +0.9 | -1.1 | 52% | 7 | 7 | #46 | |
| · | Jared Young | Carmen Mlodzinski | Splitter | +6.9 | -1.6 | 26% | 1 | 0 | #119 | |
| · | Sal Stewart | Cade Cavalli | Fastball | +3.5 | +0.4 | 34% | 9 | 5 | #8 | |
| · | Tyler Tolbert | Kevin Gausman | Fastball | +0.6 | -1.1 | 52% | 1 | 7 | #125 | |
| · | Geraldo Perdomo | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +0.6 | +1.7 | 42% | 5 | 11 | #165 | |
| · | Corbin Carroll | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +0.3 | +1.7 | 42% | 7 | 11 | #35 | |
| · | Xander Bogaerts | Ronel Blanco | Fastball | +0.4 | +3.6 | 36% | 4 | 2 | #168 |
🔥 Batter Arsenal Preview
Yordan Alvarez
+45.9 RV
Willson Contreras
+34.3 RV
Junior Caminero
+33.9 RV
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+38.2 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+25.7 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.7 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.