1
HRs allowed
5.6%
HR rate (pool)
11.1%
Overall HR/FB
5.67
FIP
5.68
xFIP
-0.01
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
35
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 35th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
87.5%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 108.0 EV · 389 ft
max EV allowed 112.1
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR ↑
15D · 1 HR ↑
30D · 1 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Chase Petty.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
33.1%
88.1
22.5°
2
-1.5
Changeup Offspeed
22.6%
83.0
6.6°
0
+1.2
Sweeper Breaking
16.4%
79.5
18.0°
1
-0.1
Fastball Hard
16.1%
86.6
36.6°
0
-3.3
Slider Breaking
11.9%
85.2
-1.5°
1
+4.6
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups18
HRs allowed (pool)1
Pool HR rate5.6%
Pool HR/game day0.5
Top-15 matchups2
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB11.1% 35
HR/9—
FIP5.67 91
xFIP5.68
FIP − xFIP-0.01 46
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed87.5%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Sinker
Hard · 33.1% usage
-1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against88.1 mph
Avg launch angle22.5°
HRs allowed2
Pitches117
Changeup
Offspeed · 22.6% usage
+1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.0 mph
Avg launch angle6.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches80
Sweeper
Breaking · 16.4% usage
-0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.5 mph
Avg launch angle18.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches58
Fastball
Hard · 16.1% usage
-3.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.6 mph
Avg launch angle36.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches57
Slider
Breaking · 11.9% usage
+4.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.2 mph
Avg launch angle-1.5°
HRs allowed1
Pitches42
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Chase Petty.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
1 allowed · scored pool
avg 108.0 EV · 389 ft
1 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 2 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-05-23
9
1
112.1
2026-05-04
9
0
106.6
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Chase Petty isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.