Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-07-19T11:00:31-04:00
30
Arsenal Edges
5
Edges That Hit HR
17%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-07-19
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Ildemaro Vargas | Andre Pallante | Knuckle Curve | +12.3 | +2.0 | 18% | 1 | 3 | #214 | |
| · | Henry Bolte | Foster Griffin | Curveball | +11.3 | +2.2 | 10% | 0 | 3 | #117 | |
| · | Nathan Lukes | Sean Burke | Knuckle Curve | +9.9 | +0.5 | 21% | 1 | 1 | #228 | |
| · | Kyle Karros | Hunter Greene | Fastball | +2.9 | -0.8 | 54% | 5 | 1 | #53 | |
| · | Tyler Tolbert | German Marquez | Changeup | +3.6 | +12.2 | 3% | 0 | 1 | #102 | |
| · | Kevin Mcgonigle | Ryan Johnson | Sinker | +3.6 | +4.7 | 29% | 4 | 6 | #163 | |
| · | Josh Rojas | German Marquez | Changeup | +3.7 | +12.2 | 3% | 1 | 1 | #172 | |
| · | Isaac Collins | German Marquez | Knuckle Curve | +5.0 | +0.4 | 37% | 0 | 3 | #173 | |
| · | Tyler Freeman | Hunter Greene | Fastball | +1.8 | -0.8 | 54% | 1 | 1 | #227 | |
| · | Lane Thomas | German Marquez | Changeup | +3.0 | +12.2 | 3% | 1 | 1 | #63 | |
| 💥 | Jac Caglianone | German Marquez | Changeup | +2.8 | +12.2 | 3% | 2 | 1 | #45 | |
| 💥 | Riley Greene | Ryan Johnson | Sinker | +2.7 | +4.7 | 29% | 1 | 6 | #70 | |
| · | Tj Rumfield | Hunter Greene | Fastball | +1.4 | -0.8 | 54% | 4 | 1 | #129 | |
| · | Luke Keaschall | Shota Imanaga | Splitter | +5.9 | -0.6 | 33% | 0 | 6 | #220 | |
| · | Salvador Perez | German Marquez | Changeup | +2.5 | +12.2 | 3% | 3 | 1 | #81 | |
| · | Jake Mccarthy | Hunter Greene | Fastball | +1.1 | -0.8 | 54% | 5 | 1 | #88 | |
| · | Jeremy Peña | Brandon Young | Splitter | +7.1 | +1.4 | 20% | 1 | 1 | #198 | |
| · | Oswald Peraza | Casey Mize | Splitter | +7.6 | -0.5 | 24% | 0 | 0 | #218 | |
| · | Kody Clemens | Shota Imanaga | Splitter | +5.5 | -0.6 | 33% | 2 | 6 | #20 | |
| · | Heliot Ramos | Logan Gilbert | Splitter | +9.0 | +0.6 | 14% | 1 | 0 | #133 | |
| 💥 | Tommy Edman | Cam Schlittler | Cutter | +6.8 | -0.4 | 27% | 0 | 6 | #175 | |
| 💥 | Esmerlyn Valdez | Joey Cantillo | Fastball | +3.4 | +1.0 | 36% | 3 | 7 | #7 | |
| · | Munetaka Murakami | Trey Yesavage | Fastball | +2.6 | -0.7 | 46% | 9 | 5 | #34 | |
| · | Dalton Rushing | Cam Schlittler | Curveball | +9.7 | +1.2 | 7% | 2 | 0 | #79 | |
| · | Jim Jarvis | Nathan Eovaldi | Cutter | +7.4 | +0.5 | 20% | 0 | 5 | #110 | |
| · | Tyler Freeman | Hunter Greene | Slider | +3.3 | +1.0 | 36% | 1 | 0 | #227 | |
| · | Ezequiel Duran | Grant Holmes | Slider | +3.7 | -0.1 | 37% | 2 | 5 | #48 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Jacob Lopez | Cutter | +7.2 | +0.4 | 20% | 5 | 1 | #30 | |
| 💥 | Jac Caglianone | German Marquez | Fastball | +1.6 | +2.2 | 38% | 7 | 3 | #45 | |
| · | Carter Jensen | German Marquez | Knuckle Curve | +3.3 | +0.4 | 37% | 1 | 3 | #73 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+27.9 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.5 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+22.4 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.