Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-07-17T11:01:09-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-07-17
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Ben Rice | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +6.6 | +1.9 | 43% | 15 | 10 | #1 | |
| · | Paul Goldschmidt | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +5.0 | +1.9 | 43% | 9 | 10 | #9 | |
| · | Hunter Goodman | Brady Singer | Sinker | +3.8 | +0.6 | 48% | 4 | 10 | #3 | |
| · | Jake Mccarthy | Brady Singer | Sinker | +3.8 | +0.6 | 48% | 2 | 10 | #29 | |
| · | Sal Stewart | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +4.6 | -2.8 | 57% | 9 | 0 | #47 | |
| · | Shea Langeliers | Cade Cavalli | Knuckle Curve | +9.0 | -0.4 | 27% | 1 | 2 | #17 | |
| · | Jose Caballero | Roki Sasaki | Splitter | +9.3 | -0.2 | 24% | 1 | 4 | #100 | |
| · | Jeremy Peña | Dean Kremer | Splitter | +7.1 | -1.0 | 35% | 1 | 2 | #95 | |
| · | Shohei Ohtani | Gerrit Cole | Sinker | +6.2 | +6.8 | 8% | 7 | 1 | #5 | |
| · | James Wood | Gage Jump | Fastball | +2.7 | -1.0 | 49% | 11 | 2 | #2 | |
| · | Tj Rumfield | Brady Singer | Sinker | +1.5 | +0.6 | 48% | 1 | 10 | #63 | |
| · | Bryce Eldridge | Bryce Miller | Fastball | +3.8 | -1.0 | 43% | 5 | 5 | #116 | |
| · | George Springer | Anthony Kay | Cutter | +7.7 | +0.7 | 17% | 3 | 2 | #71 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Gage Jump | Fastball | +1.9 | -1.0 | 49% | 3 | 2 | #48 | |
| · | Heliot Ramos | Bryce Miller | Splitter | +9.4 | -3.5 | 24% | 1 | 0 | #128 | |
| · | Max Muncy | Gerrit Cole | Fastball | +2.5 | -0.9 | 45% | 10 | 3 | #20 | |
| · | Ryan Mcmahon | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +0.6 | +1.9 | 43% | 3 | 10 | #23 | |
| · | Elly De La Cruz | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +1.2 | -2.8 | 57% | 10 | 0 | #26 | |
| · | Austin Wells | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +0.7 | +1.9 | 43% | 4 | 10 | #58 | |
| · | Ezequiel Duran | Chris Sale | Slider | +4.0 | -1.3 | 39% | 2 | 0 | #91 | |
| · | Dillon Dingler | Reid Detmers | Slider | +5.9 | -2.0 | 32% | 5 | 2 | #53 | |
| · | Jj Bleday | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +1.0 | -2.8 | 57% | 5 | 0 | #55 | |
| · | Edouard Julien | Brady Singer | Sinker | +0.3 | +0.6 | 48% | 1 | 10 | #77 | |
| · | Trevor Larnach | Colin Rea | Fastball | +1.3 | +1.2 | 42% | 3 | 5 | #78 | |
| · | Mauricio Dubon | Cal Quantrill | Cutter | +3.8 | +1.6 | 29% | 0 | 4 | #126 | |
| · | Xavier Edwards | Logan Henderson | Fastball | +2.9 | -0.8 | 42% | 3 | 1 | #170 | |
| · | Dillon Dingler | Reid Detmers | Fastball | +1.2 | +0.3 | 45% | 5 | 7 | #53 | |
| · | Eugenio Suarez | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +0.8 | -2.8 | 57% | 4 | 0 | #109 | |
| · | Jacob Young | Gage Jump | Fastball | +1.2 | -1.0 | 49% | 4 | 2 | #132 | |
| · | Miguel Andujar | Seth Lugo | Curveball | +7.1 | +1.2 | 15% | 1 | 2 | #171 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+27.9 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.5 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+22.0 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.