Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-07-11T11:00:28-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-07-11
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Jake Mccarthy | Tyler Mahle | Splitter | +16.0 | +1.5 | 26% | 2 | 3 | #125 | |
| · | Edouard Julien | Tyler Mahle | Splitter | +11.9 | +1.5 | 26% | 1 | 3 | #175 | |
| · | Randal Grichuk | Gage Jump | Sweeper | +14.3 | +1.9 | 6% | 3 | 0 | #100 | |
| · | Shea Langeliers | Bryan Hudson | Fastball | +1.5 | +0.0 | 67% | 9 | 2 | #87 | |
| · | Tyler Soderstrom | Bryan Hudson | Fastball | +0.6 | +0.0 | 67% | 3 | 2 | #98 | |
| · | Kerry Carpenter | Cristopher Sanchez | Changeup | +7.0 | -1.6 | 39% | 3 | 4 | #76 | |
| · | Brooks Lee | Ryan Johnson | Cutter | +6.8 | +0.1 | 32% | 2 | 2 | #93 | |
| · | Victor Caratini | Ryan Johnson | Cutter | +7.0 | +0.1 | 32% | 3 | 2 | #133 | |
| · | Ben Rice | PJ Poulin | Fastball | +6.3 | +0.7 | 30% | 14 | 2 | #1 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Cam Schlittler | Cutter | +7.8 | -0.2 | 27% | 5 | 5 | #72 | |
| · | Kyle Karros | Tyler Mahle | Fastball | +3.2 | -0.2 | 48% | 5 | 6 | #116 | |
| · | Alec Bohm | Casey Mize | Splitter | +8.2 | -0.2 | 25% | 0 | 0 | #183 | |
| · | Miguel Andujar | Trey Yesavage | Splitter | +7.5 | -0.9 | 30% | 1 | 1 | #211 | |
| · | Munetaka Murakami | Gage Jump | Fastball | +3.1 | -0.9 | 48% | 9 | 2 | #43 | |
| · | Alec Burleson | Reynaldo Lopez | Fastball | +2.0 | -1.3 | 54% | 5 | 4 | #95 | |
| · | Jake Bauers | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +2.3 | -0.1 | 48% | 5 | 5 | #33 | |
| · | Tyler Callihan | Brandon Sproat | Sinker | +7.1 | +0.4 | 25% | 1 | 3 | #135 | |
| · | Junior Perez | Gage Jump | Curveball | +10.7 | -0.7 | 12% | 1 | 0 | #178 | |
| · | Christian Yelich | Braxton Ashcraft | Splitter | +11.0 | +0.8 | 5% | 1 | 0 | #207 | |
| · | Bryce Eldridge | Kyle Freeland | Fastball | +4.0 | +3.5 | 26% | 5 | 7 | #65 | |
| · | Riley Greene | Cristopher Sanchez | Sinker | +3.1 | -0.3 | 43% | 1 | 5 | #90 | |
| · | George Springer | Walker Buehler | Cutter | +8.6 | -1.7 | 23% | 3 | 0 | #118 | |
| · | Sal Frelick | Braxton Ashcraft | Curveball | +8.0 | -1.6 | 26% | 2 | 3 | #239 | |
| · | Kody Clemens | Ryan Johnson | Splitter | +6.6 | +0.1 | 25% | 2 | 0 | #7 | |
| · | Caleb Durbin | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +0.7 | -0.1 | 53% | 4 | 5 | #141 | |
| · | Kevin Mcgonigle | Cristopher Sanchez | Sinker | +3.0 | -0.3 | 43% | 3 | 5 | #189 | |
| · | Andy Pages | Brandon Pfaadt | Curveball | +7.9 | -0.3 | 19% | 1 | 1 | #24 | |
| · | Jordan Walker | Reynaldo Lopez | Fastball | +0.9 | -1.3 | 54% | 7 | 4 | #25 | |
| · | Paul Goldschmidt | PJ Poulin | Fastball | +4.8 | +0.7 | 30% | 8 | 2 | #40 | |
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | Javier Assad | Cutter | +8.7 | +0.0 | 15% | 2 | 1 | #54 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+28.5 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.6 RV allowed
Kyle Freeland
+22.5 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.