Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-06-29T17:00:58-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-06-29
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Jared Young | Trey Yesavage | Splitter | +14.6 | -1.1 | 30% | 1 | 1 | #38 | |
| · | Justin Foscue | Parker Messick | Cutter | +14.1 | +2.0 | 8% | 2 | 3 | #108 | |
| · | Jackson Holliday | Sean Burke | Cutter | +16.4 | -0.9 | 6% | 1 | 1 | #46 | |
| · | Sam Antonacci | Shane Baz | Knuckle Curve | +9.0 | +0.2 | 33% | 0 | 2 | #104 | |
| · | Xavier Edwards | Sean Sullivan | Fastball | +2.8 | +1.9 | 52% | 3 | 1 | #105 | |
| · | Jose Caballero | Casey Mize | Splitter | +9.8 | +0.4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | #159 | |
| · | Noelvi Marte | Robert Gasser | Sweeper | +8.8 | +1.0 | 27% | 1 | 2 | #70 | |
| · | Sal Frelick | Nick Lodolo | Curveball | +8.6 | +0.9 | 26% | 2 | 0 | #150 | |
| · | Vaughn Grissom | George Kirby | Sweeper | +9.0 | -1.0 | 29% | 2 | 1 | #189 | |
| · | Otto Lopez | Sean Sullivan | Fastball | +1.2 | +1.9 | 52% | 1 | 1 | #88 | |
| · | Adrian Del Castillo | Tyler Mahle | Splitter | +7.1 | +1.7 | 25% | 1 | 3 | #168 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Casey Mize | Fastball | +6.3 | -0.6 | 35% | 11 | 1 | #9 | |
| · | Paul Goldschmidt | Casey Mize | Fastball | +6.4 | -0.6 | 35% | 8 | 1 | #22 | |
| · | Samad Taylor | Shota Imanaga | Sweeper | +9.9 | +0.6 | 14% | 1 | 3 | #154 | |
| · | George Springer | Sean Manaea | Cutter | +9.6 | +2.6 | 8% | 3 | 1 | #77 | |
| · | Colson Montgomery | Shane Baz | Knuckle Curve | +5.7 | +0.2 | 33% | 1 | 2 | #12 | |
| · | Juan Soto | Trey Yesavage | Fastball | +3.6 | -0.7 | 45% | 7 | 3 | #23 | |
| · | Casey Schmitt | Eduardo Rodriguez | Changeup | +7.4 | -0.8 | 27% | 4 | 3 | #84 | |
| · | Owen Caissie | Sean Sullivan | Fastball | -0.4 | +1.9 | 52% | 3 | 1 | #20 | |
| · | Michael Conforto | Griffin Canning | Sinker | +8.0 | +2.5 | 12% | 2 | 1 | #26 | |
| · | Max Muncy | Gage Jump | Fastball | +3.7 | -2.4 | 48% | 9 | 0 | #47 | |
| · | Samad Taylor | Shota Imanaga | Fastball | +2.3 | +0.9 | 43% | 0 | 9 | #154 | |
| · | Kyle Stowers | Sean Sullivan | Fastball | -0.8 | +1.9 | 52% | 2 | 1 | #27 | |
| · | Dane Myers | Robert Gasser | Sinker | +5.6 | +0.4 | 28% | 1 | 1 | #113 | |
| · | Jakob Marsee | Sean Sullivan | Fastball | -0.8 | +1.9 | 52% | 2 | 1 | #117 | |
| · | Shea Langeliers | Eric Lauer | Fastball | +2.1 | -0.4 | 46% | 9 | 9 | #6 | |
| · | Francisco Alvarez | Trey Yesavage | Splitter | +6.1 | -1.1 | 30% | 1 | 1 | #53 | |
| · | Heriberto Hernández | Sean Sullivan | Fastball | -1.1 | +1.9 | 52% | 1 | 1 | #65 | |
| · | Luke Raley | Ryan Johnson | Cutter | +4.2 | +1.4 | 30% | 4 | 2 | #66 | |
| · | Nick Kurtz | Eric Lauer | Fastball | +1.9 | -0.4 | 46% | 9 | 9 | #1 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+26.0 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+22.2 RV allowed
Kyle Freeland
+21.6 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.