Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-06-17T11:00:31-04:00
30
Arsenal Edges
7
Edges That Hit HR
23%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-06-17
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | Nolan McLean | Cutter | +15.6 | +3.6 | 10% | 2 | 1 | #43 | |
| · | Samad Taylor | Kyle Leahy | Sweeper | +14.3 | +0.7 | 13% | 1 | 1 | #185 | |
| · | Noelvi Marte | Nolan McLean | Sweeper | +11.6 | +2.5 | 17% | 1 | 2 | #18 | |
| · | Esteury Ruiz | Andrew Painter | Fastball | +6.7 | +1.9 | 34% | 3 | 4 | #2 | |
| · | Eugenio Suárez | Nolan McLean | Cutter | +10.5 | +3.6 | 10% | 4 | 1 | #84 | |
| · | Casey Schmitt | JR Ritchie | Changeup | +9.0 | +2.8 | 18% | 4 | 2 | #74 | |
| 💥 | Jeremy Peña | Casey Mize | Splitter | +8.7 | +0.5 | 27% | 1 | 0 | #193 | |
| · | Sal Frelick | Gavin Williams | Curveball | +9.4 | -0.2 | 23% | 2 | 4 | #209 | |
| · | Matt Olson | Adrian Houser | Sinker | +3.3 | +0.8 | 46% | 5 | 7 | #12 | |
| · | Jake Mccarthy | Javier Assad | Sinker | +5.2 | -0.3 | 40% | 1 | 1 | #159 | |
| 💥 | Bryce Eldridge | Grant Holmes | Slider | +4.5 | +0.5 | 40% | 1 | 4 | #34 | |
| · | Rodolfo Durán | Kyle Leahy | Fastball | +6.1 | +1.3 | 29% | 3 | 4 | #22 | |
| · | Spencer Horwitz | Aaron Civale | Splitter | +10.5 | +2.1 | 7% | 1 | 0 | #36 | |
| · | Jordan Walker | Bradgley Rodriguez | Changeup | +6.3 | -2.6 | 42% | 2 | 0 | #76 | |
| · | J. P. Crawford | Kyle Bradish | Curveball | +8.8 | +0.0 | 22% | 2 | 2 | #100 | |
| 💥 | Hunter Goodman | Javier Assad | Sinker | +4.5 | -0.3 | 40% | 2 | 1 | #20 | |
| · | Logan O'Hoppe | Eduardo Rodriguez | Curveball | +12.4 | -2.0 | 11% | 0 | 0 | #157 | |
| 💥 | Zack Gelof | Braxton Ashcraft | Splitter | +11.9 | -0.3 | 5% | 1 | 0 | #55 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Anthony Kay | Fastball | +6.9 | +0.2 | 26% | 9 | 3 | #1 | |
| · | Drake Baldwin | Adrian Houser | Sinker | +2.0 | +0.8 | 46% | 3 | 7 | #28 | |
| 💥 | Luis Arráez | JR Ritchie | Curveball | +7.8 | -1.2 | 26% | 0 | 1 | #195 | |
| · | Daniel Susac | Grant Holmes | Slider | +3.2 | +0.5 | 40% | 0 | 4 | #214 | |
| · | Jake Bauers | Gavin Williams | Sweeper | +6.0 | +0.7 | 26% | 3 | 3 | #3 | |
| 💥 | Dominic Canzone | Kyle Bradish | Curveball | +7.3 | +0.0 | 22% | 2 | 2 | #14 | |
| · | Dillon Dingler | Peter Lambert | Slider | +9.6 | -1.9 | 19% | 5 | 0 | #25 | |
| 💥 | Mauricio Dubón | Adrian Houser | Curveball | +6.8 | +4.3 | 10% | 2 | 1 | #93 | |
| · | Willson Contreras | Max Scherzer | Fastball | +0.6 | +0.8 | 48% | 2 | 3 | #8 | |
| · | Kazuma Okamoto | Jake Bennett | Fastball | +3.4 | +2.4 | 31% | 7 | 1 | #89 | |
| · | Willson Contreras | Max Scherzer | Slider | +3.3 | +4.5 | 22% | 2 | 4 | #8 | |
| · | Juan Soto | Nick Lodolo | Fastball | +3.8 | +2.6 | 27% | 7 | 4 | #11 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+26.4 RV allowed
Brady Singer
+23.0 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+22.9 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.