Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-06-09T17:00:37-04:00
30
Arsenal Edges
3
Edges That Hit HR
10%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-06-09
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Jake Mccarthy | Colin Rea | Splitter | +25.4 | -2.0 | 18% | 1 | 0 | #58 | |
| · | Jackson Holliday | Logan Gilbert | Splitter | +19.5 | +0.6 | 16% | 1 | 0 | #53 | |
| · | Travis Bazzana | Gerrit Cole | Knuckle Curve | +14.6 | +1.5 | 12% | 0 | 1 | #74 | |
| · | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | Nick Martinez | Slider | +6.5 | +14.1 | 3% | 1 | 0 | #127 | |
| · | Willson Contreras | Nick Martinez | Slider | +3.3 | +14.1 | 3% | 2 | 0 | #13 | |
| · | Ty France | Chase Burns | Changeup | +5.3 | +10.6 | 6% | 0 | 2 | #88 | |
| · | Luis Arráez | Andrew Alvarez | Curveball | +9.2 | -1.4 | 31% | 0 | 0 | #217 | |
| · | Jj Bleday | Lucas Giolito | Fastball | +4.5 | +2.1 | 38% | 4 | 1 | #54 | |
| · | Paul Goldschmidt | Slade Cecconi | Fastball | +7.7 | -0.5 | 32% | 4 | 4 | #59 | |
| · | Patrick Wisdom | Trevor Rogers | Changeup | +7.9 | +1.8 | 23% | 1 | 1 | #77 | |
| 💥 | Sal Stewart | Lucas Giolito | Fastball | +4.4 | +2.1 | 38% | 5 | 1 | #104 | |
| · | Carson Kelly | Tomoyuki Sugano | Cutter | +9.2 | +3.4 | 11% | 1 | 4 | #157 | |
| · | Brandon Lowe | Eric Lauer | Fastball | +4.0 | +0.3 | 45% | 8 | 9 | #24 | |
| · | Masataka Yoshida | Nick Martinez | Slider | +2.6 | +14.1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | #158 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Slade Cecconi | Fastball | +6.9 | -0.5 | 32% | 9 | 4 | #16 | |
| · | Trea Turner | Dylan Cease | Knuckle Curve | +11.0 | +0.6 | 9% | 0 | 0 | #173 | |
| · | Henry Davis | Eric Lauer | Cutter | +6.7 | +3.4 | 17% | 2 | 3 | #57 | |
| · | Daylen Lile | Adrian Houser | Sinker | +2.0 | +1.0 | 46% | 2 | 7 | #148 | |
| · | Marcelo Mayer | Nick Martinez | Slider | +1.4 | +14.1 | 3% | 1 | 0 | #181 | |
| · | James Wood | Adrian Houser | Sinker | +1.8 | +1.0 | 46% | 2 | 7 | #10 | |
| · | Travis Bazzana | Gerrit Cole | Sinker | +2.9 | +10.2 | 10% | 2 | 1 | #74 | |
| · | Wilyer Abreu | Nick Martinez | Slider | +1.3 | +14.1 | 3% | 2 | 0 | #100 | |
| · | Ryan Vilade | Payton Tolle | Curveball | +11.0 | -0.2 | 9% | 1 | 1 | #177 | |
| · | Junior Caminero | Payton Tolle | Fastball | +3.2 | -1.7 | 49% | 4 | 1 | #50 | |
| · | Chase Delauter | Gerrit Cole | Sinker | +2.5 | +10.2 | 10% | 1 | 1 | #138 | |
| · | Xavier Edwards | Zac Gallen | Fastball | +3.1 | +1.4 | 38% | 3 | 6 | #160 | |
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | Lucas Giolito | Changeup | +4.6 | -0.6 | 37% | 2 | 1 | #46 | |
| 💥 | Ryan O'Hearn | Eric Lauer | Fastball | +2.1 | +0.3 | 45% | 6 | 9 | #75 | |
| 💥 | Bryan Reynolds | Eric Lauer | Fastball | +2.1 | +0.3 | 45% | 4 | 9 | #83 | |
| · | Nolan Gorman | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +1.3 | -1.0 | 54% | 5 | 3 | #154 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+26.4 RV allowed
Brady Singer
+23.0 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+22.9 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.