4
HRs allowed
9.1%
HR rate (pool)
21.3%
Overall HR/FB
6.35
FIP
6.49
xFIP
-0.14
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
90
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 90th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
78.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.3 EV · 408 ft
max EV allowed 111.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 4 HR ↑
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Lucas Giolito.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
41.6%
87.3
24.5°
1
+0.3
Changeup Offspeed
34.7%
82.0
27.8°
2
+1.7
Slider Breaking
17.1%
77.9
27.9°
0
+0.6
Curveball Breaking
6.7%
86.0
21.0°
1
+2.8
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups44
HRs allowed (pool)4
Pool HR rate9.1%
Pool HR/game day0.8
Top-15 matchups4
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB21.3% 90
HR/9—
FIP6.35 95
xFIP6.49
FIP − xFIP-0.14 39
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed78.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 41.6% usage
+0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.3 mph
Avg launch angle24.5°
HRs allowed1
Pitches229
Changeup
Offspeed · 34.7% usage
+1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.0 mph
Avg launch angle27.8°
HRs allowed2
Pitches191
Slider
Breaking · 17.1% usage
+0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against77.9 mph
Avg launch angle27.9°
HRs allowed0
Pitches94
Curveball
Breaking · 6.7% usage
+2.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.0 mph
Avg launch angle21.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches37
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Lucas Giolito.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
4 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.3 EV · 408 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 5 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-06-09
8
1
106.9
2026-06-04
9
1
109.0
2026-05-29
9
2
108.9
2026-05-23
9
0
111.9
2026-05-17
9
0
107.4
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Lucas Giolito isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.