TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ CHC

Playable air · 1.06×

TOR @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 2:20p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 5 mph cross 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

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1:20p

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2:20p

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3:20p

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4:20p

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5:20p

the 2:20p window peaks +1

Best of game Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 31 · vs Cease ⟷ Jesús Sánchez conv 20 · vs Peterson → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Dylan Cease RHP · TOR

leak 79

0.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +425 C ●●●●●

2 Nico Hoerner — D ●●●○○

3 Seiya Suzuki +525 D ●●○○○

FADE David Peterson LHP · NYM

leak 32

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jesús Sánchez — D ●●●○○

2 George Springer +500 D ●●○○○

3 Kazuma Okamoto +390 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: 11.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ HOT vs Cease Edge +425 0.251 · 90.2 · 7.7% 30.8% 30.8% F B O C 59

· — Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Peterson Edge +390 0.214 · 90.7 · 9.7% 8.3% 16.2% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· — Jesús Sánchez COOL vs Peterson — 0.157 · 90.7 · 8.6% 25.0% 15.8% F B O D 49

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Cease — 0.103 · 86.1 · 2.5% 25.0% 9.4% F B O D 31

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Cease +525 0.208 · 89.0 · 7.2% 16.7% 15.4% F B O D 49

· — George Springer vs Peterson Edge +500 0.168 · 88.9 · 7.3% 15.4% 9.4% F B O D 47

· CHC Dansby Swanson vs Cease +700 0.189 · 89.6 · 6.2% 7.7% 10.7% F B O D 44

· CHC Michael Busch vs Cease Edge +575 0.149 · 88.2 · 7.0% 7.7% 10.0% F B O D 42

· CHC Carson Kelly vs Cease +850 0.118 · 87.6 · 5.6% 11.1% 6.4% F B O D 36

· CHC Alex Bregman COOL vs Cease +750 0.132 · 88.1 · 4.6% 8.3% 7.3% F B O D 36

· CHC Michael Conforto COOL vs Cease Edge — 0.224 · 91.7 · 7.7% 0.0% 15.3% F B O D 46

· — Ernie Clement vs Peterson Edge +850 0.124 · 84.9 · 4.1% 7.7% 7.4% F B O D 37

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Cease Edge +575 0.196 · 89.3 · 7.8% 0.0% 14.5% F B O D 48

· — Brandon Valenzuela COOL vs Peterson Edge — 0.162 · 88.1 · 7.7% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 45

· — Andres Gimenez COOL vs Peterson +950 0.116 · 85.8 · 5.2% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 35

· — Nathan Lukes COOL vs Peterson — 0.104 · 86.2 · 2.5% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.1% ← leak BRK 43.4% OFF 11.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

9.7% 12.7% 14.3% 11.4% C 59 +425

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Seiya Suzuki R

10.5% 9.6% 10.0% 10.1% D 49 +525

Ian Happ S Edge

15.0% 15.9% 1.5% 11.8% D 48 +575

Michael Conforto L Edge

9.9% 18.8% 13.6% 11.9% D 46 —

Dansby Swanson R

7.1% 6.7% 12.5% 7.6% D 44 +700

Michael Busch L Edge

12.6% 4.2% 2.4% 9.3% D 42 +575

120

Alex Bregman R

3.0% 6.3% 6.2% 4.2% D 36 +750

121

Carson Kelly R

7.1% 4.4% 5.9% 6.1% D 36 +850

136

Nico Hoerner R

1.1% 1.0% 2.3% 1.2% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.1% usage) carries Cease's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 54.1% ← leak BRK 33.6% OFF 12.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R Edge

15.2% 7.8% 15.8% 13.1% C 56 +390

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jesús Sánchez L

8.0% 19.6% 0.0% 10.4% D 49 —

George Springer R Edge

8.2% 6.0% 8.3% 7.5% D 47 +500

Brandon Valenzuela S Edge

5.0% 15.4% 12.0% 8.4% D 45 —

113

Ernie Clement R Edge

2.3% 2.4% 2.1% 2.3% D 37 +850

123

Andres Gimenez L

4.0% 2.4% 5.6% 3.7% D 35 +950

130

Nathan Lukes L

0.0% 2.0% 2.6% 0.9% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.1% usage) carries Peterson's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Hoerner Sánchez

Legend

attack side — vs Cease fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Pete Crow-Armstrong +425 · 59

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 1:20p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 5 mph cross 75°F open

↑

5 mph · cross

74°F

1:20p

↑

5 mph · cross

75°F

2:20p · peak

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6 mph · cross

76°F

3:20p

↑

6 mph · cross

77°F

4:20p

↑

6 mph · cross

77°F

5:20p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 75°F, wind 5 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Dylan Cease · RHP 0.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 59 C +425 HOT 12 0.251 90.2 7.7% 23.2%vs RHP 393 20.0% 30.8% 30.8% 35

2 Seiya Suzuki 49 D +525 · 43 0.208 89.0 7.2% 22.6%vs RHP 405 16.1% 16.7% 15.4% 33

3 Ian Happ 48 D +575 COOL 51 0.196 89.3 7.8% 22.7%vs RHP 404 16.7% 0.0% 14.5% 27

4 Michael Conforto 46 D — COOL 63 0.224 91.7 7.7% 15.9%vs RHP 399 7.5% 0.0% 15.3% 13

5 Dansby Swanson 44 D +700 · 74 0.189 89.6 6.2% 16.9%vs RHP 403 12.4% 7.7% 10.7% 31

6 Michael Busch 42 D +575 · 87 0.149 88.2 7.0% 14.5%vs RHP 401 12.9% 7.7% 10.0% 49

7 Alex Bregman 36 D +750 COOL 120 0.132 88.1 4.6% 15.7%vs RHP 389 8.9% 8.3% 7.3% 42

8 Carson Kelly 36 D +850 · 121 0.118 87.6 5.6% 7.1%vs RHP 413 7.4% 11.1% 6.4% 27

9 Nico Hoerner 31 D — WARM 136 0.103 86.1 2.5% 6.7%vs RHP 381 6.2% 25.0% 9.4% 41

vs David Peterson · LHP 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 56 C +390 COOL 19 0.214 90.7 9.7% 20.0%vs LHP 397 18.1% 8.3% 16.2% 35

2 Jesús Sánchez 49 D — COOL 45 0.157 90.7 8.6% 0.0%vs LHP 398 11.5% 25.0% 15.8% 8

3 George Springer 47 D +500 · 58 0.168 88.9 7.3% 9.1%vs LHP 393 11.3% 15.4% 9.4% 41

4 Brandon Valenzuela 45 D — COOL 66 0.162 88.1 7.7% 25.0%vs LHP 394 9.5% 0.0% 11.2% 9

5 Ernie Clement 37 D +850 · 113 0.124 84.9 4.1% 8.8%vs LHP 375 8.3% 7.7% 7.4% 47

6 Andres Gimenez 35 D +950 COOL 123 0.116 85.8 5.2% 20.0%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 27

7 Nathan Lukes 33 D — COOL 130 0.104 86.2 2.5% 9.1% 378 5.6% 0.0% 9.3% 31

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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