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T-Mobile Park is live · 1.19×

DET @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 4:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 2 mph slight_out 85°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+1 ↑

1:10p

+1 ↑

2:10p

+0 ↑

3:10p

-2 ↑

4:10p

-3 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at +1

Best of game Dillon Dingler conv 30 · vs Miller ⟷ Dominic Canzone conv 24 · vs Valdez → edge: Dillon Dingler

ATTACK Bryce Miller RHP · SEA

leak 90

1.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · leakiest side of this game

1 Dillon Dingler +400 C ●●●●●

2 Kevin Mcgonigle +500 D ●●●●○

3 Gleyber Torres +700 D ●●●○○

FADE Framber Valdez LHP · DET

leak 64

0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · stingy — thin edge

1 Dominic Canzone +500 C ●●●●○

2 Randy Arozarena +500 D ●●●○○

3 Cal Raleigh +370 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dillon Dingler: 11.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 27.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Dillon Dingler ✶ COOL vs Miller +400 0.248 · 89.2 · 8.5% 27.3% 33.3% F B O C 59

· SEA Dominic Canzone COOL vs Valdez +500 0.253 · 91.9 · 9.6% 16.7% 31.5% F B O C 59

· DET Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Miller +390 0.205 · 89.6 · 9.1% 9.1% 15.4% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Miller Edge +500 0.141 · 88.0 · 6.8% 50.0% 7.7% F B O D 42

· DET Gleyber Torres vs Miller +700 0.141 · 86.1 · 7.0% 27.3% 15.9% F B O D 42

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Valdez Edge +500 0.172 · 91.1 · 7.2% 25.0% 16.6% F B O D 47

· SEA Cal Raleigh HOT vs Valdez Edge +370 0.146 · 88.7 · 9.0% 18.2% 16.3% F B O D 46

· SEA Julio Rodríguez COOL vs Valdez Edge +475 0.158 · 89.9 · 7.4% 16.7% 11.1% F B O D 45

· DET Riley Greene COOL vs Miller Edge +350 0.183 · 91.0 · 9.9% 9.1% 11.2% F B O D 48

· SEA Colt Emerson vs Valdez — 0.146 · 86.0 · 5.5% 8.3% 9.3% F B O D 39

· SEA Cole Young vs Valdez +850 0.150 · 88.9 · 5.8% 8.3% 8.9% F B O D 40

· DET Colt Keith COOL vs Miller Edge +575 0.151 · 88.5 · 7.0% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 39

· DET Zach Mckinstry vs Miller Edge +850 0.110 · 85.6 · 4.2% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 31

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Valdez +850 0.096 · 87.7 · 5.3% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 54.0% ← leak OFF 24.4% BRK 21.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Dillon Dingler R

12.6% 7.1% 10.3% 11.3% C 59 +400

Spencer Torkelson R

13.7% 13.6% 11.3% 13.1% C 50 +390

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Riley Greene L Edge

16.3% 9.4% 16.9% 15.1% D 48 +350

Gleyber Torres R

9.3% 0.0% 5.1% 7.5% D 42 +700

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

8.6% 1.8% 7.0% 7.2% D 42 +500

101

Colt Keith L Edge

7.0% 3.6% 14.6% 7.5% D 39 +575

138

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

3.7% 0.0% 1.8% 2.7% D 31 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.0% usage) carries Miller's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 47.3% ← leak BRK 33.5% OFF 19.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Dominic Canzone L

17.2% 15.0% 8.2% 14.3% C 59 +500

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Randy Arozarena R Edge

8.2% 8.0% 7.8% 8.1% D 47 +500

Cal Raleigh S Edge

10.5% 15.6% 15.0% 12.6% D 46 +370

Julio Rodríguez R Edge

8.7% 8.4% 7.7% 8.5% D 45 +475

Cole Young L

4.6% 9.3% 2.0% 5.2% D 40 +850

100

Colt Emerson L

4.6% 5.1% 4.0% 4.7% D 39 —

134

Josh Naylor L

4.0% 7.4% 1.8% 4.4% D 32 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.3% usage) carries Valdez's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Dingler Torres Mcgonigle Canzone Arozarena Raleigh Rodríguez

Legend

attack side — vs Miller fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Dillon Dingler +400 · 59

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.99× Wind 2 mph slight_out 85°F retractable

↑

2 mph · slight_out

83°F

1:10p · peak

↑

3 mph · cross

88°F

2:10p

↑

5 mph · cross

87°F

3:10p

-2

↑

7 mph · cross

86°F

4:10p

-3

↑

8 mph · cross

85°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.19× 85°F, wind 2 mph NW (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bryce Miller · RHP 1.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler ✶ 59 C +400 COOL 11 0.248 89.2 8.5% 32.3%vs RHP 397 21.0% 27.3% 33.3% 35

2 Spencer Torkelson 50 C +390 COOL 37 0.205 89.6 9.1% 25.4%vs RHP 394 16.4% 9.1% 15.4% 36

3 Riley Greene 48 D +350 COOL 54 0.183 91.0 9.9% 17.1%vs RHP 399 12.6% 9.1% 11.2% 33

4 Gleyber Torres 42 D +700 WARM 84 0.141 86.1 7.0% 15.6%vs RHP 389 10.3% 27.3% 15.9% 32

5 Kevin Mcgonigle 42 D +500 COOL 89 0.141 88.0 6.8% 8.7%vs RHP 399 22.2% 50.0% 7.7% 41

6 Colt Keith 39 D +575 COOL 101 0.151 88.5 7.0% 12.7%vs RHP 389 6.4% 0.0% 8.7% 30

7 Zach Mckinstry 31 D +850 WARM 138 0.110 85.6 4.2% 7.1%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 32

vs Framber Valdez · LHP 0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 59 C +500 COOL 9 0.253 91.9 9.6% 44.4%vs LHP 403 16.7% 16.7% 31.5% 38

2 Randy Arozarena 47 D +500 · 56 0.172 91.1 7.2% 18.8%vs LHP 391 12.6% 25.0% 16.6% 40

3 Cal Raleigh 46 D +370 HOT 62 0.146 88.7 9.0% 22.2%vs LHP 395 13.3% 18.2% 16.3% 22

4 Julio Rodríguez 45 D +475 COOL 70 0.158 89.9 7.4% 26.5%vs LHP 409 16.5% 16.7% 11.1% 40

5 Cole Young 40 D +850 · 99 0.150 88.9 5.8% 13.8%vs LHP 387 11.8% 8.3% 8.9% 45

6 Colt Emerson 39 D — · 100 0.146 86.0 5.5% 20.0%vs LHP 369 10.6% 8.3% 9.3% 26

7 Josh Naylor 32 D +850 · 134 0.096 87.7 5.3% 4.2%vs LHP 390 6.4% 0.0% 6.6% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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