TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ BOS

Suppressed air · 0.99×

CWS @ BOS

Fenway Park · 7:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 6 mph out 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

7:10p

+3 ↑

8:10p

+3 ↑

9:10p

+3 ↑

10:10p

+4 ↑

11:10p

the 7:10p window peaks +4

Best of game Munetaka Murakami conv 27 · vs Suarez ⟷ Ceddanne Rafaela conv 30 · vs Castillo → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Ranger Suarez LHP · BOS

leak 92

0.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.58 · leakiest side of this game

1 Munetaka Murakami +400 C ●●●●○

2 Miguel Vargas +370 C ●●●●○

3 Andrew Benintendi — D ●●●○○

FADE Luis Castillo RHP · SEA

leak 58

1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.33 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ceddanne Rafaela +525 D ●●●●●

2 Wilyer Abreu +290 C ●●●●○

3 Jarren Duran +400 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: 20.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Suarez +400 0.298 · 94.2 · 10.2% 25.0% 28.6% F B O C 57

· — Wilyer Abreu vs Castillo Edge +290 0.200 · 89.8 · 11.0% 33.3% 19.5% F B O C 54

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Suarez Edge +370 0.241 · 90.8 · 8.6% 25.0% 23.1% F B O C 51

· — Willson Contreras vs Castillo +330 0.252 · 90.7 · 11.7% 8.3% 19.2% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· — Ceddanne Rafaela HOT vs Castillo +525 0.189 · 86.6 · 7.4% 41.7% 18.2% F B O D 48

· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs Suarez — 0.186 · 88.9 · 6.9% 22.2% 18.9% F B O D 41

· — Jarren Duran COOL vs Castillo Edge +400 0.149 · 89.4 · 9.8% 16.7% 11.4% F B O D 44

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Suarez +425 0.233 · 89.1 · 8.0% 9.1% 17.3% F B O D 47

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs Suarez Edge +950 0.118 · 88.0 · 4.9% 16.7% 7.7% F B O D 29

· — Caleb Durbin COOL vs Castillo +750 0.158 · 84.1 · 5.0% 8.3% 9.1% F B O D 36

· CWS Sam Antonacci vs Suarez — 0.131 · 87.7 · 5.8% 11.1% 6.2% F B O D 31

· — Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Castillo +575 0.191 · 89.1 · 9.2% 8.3% 8.5% F B O D 45

· — Masataka Yoshida vs Castillo Edge +575 0.126 · 88.3 · 5.7% 8.3% 7.2% F B O D 35

· CWS Tristan Peters COOL vs Suarez — 0.149 · 87.2 · 5.0% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 30

· CWS Luisangel Acuna COOL vs Suarez Edge — 0.035 · 89.1 · 4.3% 0.0% 5.0% F B O D 20

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 66.4% ← leak BRK 19.4% OFF 14.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Munetaka Murakami L

21.4% 18.6% 19.0% 20.1% C 57 +400

Miguel Vargas R Edge

16.1% 12.4% 12.1% 14.6% C 51 +370

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Colson Montgomery L

12.5% 11.9% 13.9% 12.5% D 47 +425

Andrew Benintendi L

13.4% 4.8% 5.8% 9.3% D 41 —

139

Sam Antonacci L

8.3% 5.7% 0.0% 6.4% D 31 —

140

Tristan Peters L

6.0% 5.4% 0.0% 4.9% D 30 —

141

Chase Meidroth R Edge

4.0% 6.3% 4.2% 4.6% D 29 +950

148

Luisangel Acuna R Edge

3.9% 5.0% 0.0% 3.6% D 20 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (66.4% usage) carries Suarez's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 60.3% ← leak BRK 26.5% OFF 13.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Willson Contreras R

12.3% 15.0% 21.9% 14.2% C 57 +330

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

12.4% 14.3% 12.3% 12.8% C 54 +290

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Ceddanne Rafaela R

3.8% 6.1% 13.3% 5.8% D 48 +525

Andruw Monasterio R

7.9% 8.9% 16.7% 8.9% D 45 +575

Jarren Duran L Edge

12.2% 7.8% 8.1% 10.1% D 44 +400

117

Caleb Durbin R

3.0% 1.4% 3.3% 2.7% D 36 +750

125

Masataka Yoshida L Edge

4.7% 0.0% 2.4% 3.4% D 35 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.3% usage) carries Castillo's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Vargas Montgomery Benintendi Contreras Abreu Rafaela Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Suarez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Munetaka Murakami +400 · 57

Wilyer Abreu +290 · 54

Miguel Vargas +370 · 51

Ceddanne Rafaela +525 · 48

Andrew Benintendi — · 41

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.90× Wind 6 mph out 83°F open

↑

6 mph · out

83°F

7:10p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

81°F

8:10p

↑

5 mph · out

79°F

9:10p

↑

5 mph · out

77°F

10:10p

↑

6 mph · out

76°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.99× 83°F, wind 6 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Ranger Suarez · LHP 0.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.58 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 57 C +400 · 15 0.298 94.2 10.2% 25.0%vs LHP 405 16.9% 25.0% 28.6% 30

2 Miguel Vargas 51 C +370 WARM 32 0.241 90.8 8.6% 27.3%vs LHP 392 20.8% 25.0% 23.1% 33

3 Colson Montgomery 47 D +425 COOL 55 0.233 89.1 8.0% 32.0%vs LHP 399 23.1% 9.1% 17.3% 28

4 Andrew Benintendi 41 D — · 91 0.186 88.9 6.9% 14.0% 389 14.7% 22.2% 18.9% 21

5 Sam Antonacci 31 D — · 139 0.131 87.7 5.8% 0.0%vs LHP 390 10.6% 11.1% 6.2% 32

6 Tristan Peters 30 D — COOL 140 0.149 87.2 5.0% 0.0%vs LHP 377 7.4% 0.0% 7.0% 26

7 Chase Meidroth 29 D +950 WARM 141 0.118 88.0 4.9% 11.1%vs LHP 380 7.3% 16.7% 7.7% 32

8 Luisangel Acuna 20 D — COOL 148 0.035 89.1 4.3% 0.0%vs LHP 416 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 12

vs Luis Castillo · RHP 1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.33 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 57 C +330 · 16 0.252 90.7 11.7% 32.6%vs RHP 406 20.0% 8.3% 19.2% 17

2 Wilyer Abreu 54 C +290 · 27 0.200 89.8 11.0% 14.4%vs RHP 409 16.4% 33.3% 19.5% 34

3 Ceddanne Rafaela 48 D +525 HOT 49 0.189 86.6 7.4% 19.0%vs RHP 380 13.8% 41.7% 18.2% 36

4 Andruw Monasterio 45 D +575 COOL 69 0.191 89.1 9.2% 3.2%vs RHP 390 15.8% 8.3% 8.5% 33

5 Jarren Duran 44 D +400 COOL 72 0.149 89.4 9.8% 28.3%vs RHP 400 13.2% 16.7% 11.4% 36

6 Caleb Durbin 36 D +750 COOL 117 0.158 84.1 5.0% 20.0%vs RHP 375 9.4% 8.3% 9.1% 36

7 Masataka Yoshida 35 D +575 WARM 125 0.126 88.3 5.7% 10.9%vs RHP 368 11.1% 8.3% 7.2% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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