TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.30×

MIA @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 7 mph out 69°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

7:15p

+8 ↑

8:15p

+3 ↑

9:15p

-2 ↑

10:15p

-4 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +9

Best of game Kyle Stowers conv 29 · vs Pérez ⟷ Matt Olson conv 40 · vs Junk → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Martín Pérez LHP · ATL

leak 89

1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Stowers +425 C+ ●●●●●

2 Heriberto Hernández +390 C ●●●○○

3 Owen Caissie — C ●●○○○

FADE Janson Junk RHP · MIA

leak 89

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.03 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson +305 B ●●●●●

2 Ozzie Albies +525 C ●●●●○

3 Dominic Smith — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: 14.4% barrels overall vs the BRK leak · 14D pace 42.9% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Junk Edge +305 0.275 · 92.6 · 10.3% 42.9% 36.8% F B O B 71

· MIA Kyle Stowers vs Pérez +425 0.223 · 92.1 · 8.7% 33.3% 25.6% F B O C+ 60

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Junk Edge +525 0.177 · 86.8 · 5.7% 28.6% 21.1% F B O C 50

· MIA Heriberto Hernández COOL vs Pérez Edge +390 0.233 · 91.9 · 8.9% 0.0% 36.1% F B O C 54

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Junk Edge +390 0.192 · 91.6 · 10.3% 14.3% 17.2% F B O C 57

· MIA Owen Caissie COOL vs Pérez — 0.212 · 91.8 · 10.0% 0.0% 21.3% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· ATL Dominic Smith vs Junk Edge — 0.135 · 87.9 · 6.5% 28.6% 16.6% F B O D 46

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Junk Edge +575 0.153 · 90.3 · 7.1% 22.2% 19.5% F B O D 48

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Pérez Edge +850 0.134 · 86.7 · 3.5% 11.1% 9.4% F B O D 38

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Pérez +950 0.101 · 87.0 · 4.8% 11.1% 9.1% F B O D 37

· ATL Austin Riley vs Junk +475 0.140 · 91.0 · 9.0% 7.7% 9.7% F B O D 47

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Pérez Edge — 0.107 · 86.9 · 4.9% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 36

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Pérez Edge +750 0.159 · 89.4 · 6.4% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 44

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Junk +950 0.136 · 86.7 · 5.6% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 62.0% ← leak OFF 30.2% BRK 7.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Kyle Stowers L

10.8% 7.9% 17.9% 12.1% C+ 60 +425

Owen Caissie L

17.6% 21.4% 8.1% 15.8% C 56 —

Heriberto Hernández R Edge

12.2% 16.7% 12.5% 12.7% C 54 +390

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Otto Lopez R Edge

9.3% 1.8% 4.4% 6.5% D 44 +750

105

Javier Sanoja R Edge

2.1% 0.0% 2.4% 1.9% D 38 +850

108

Jakob Marsee L

3.2% 8.1% 2.1% 3.6% D 37 +950

115

Xavier Edwards S Edge

4.7% 3.0% 2.7% 3.9% D 36 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (62.0% usage) carries Pérez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 41.8% ← leak FB 39.8% OFF 18.3% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Matt Olson L Edge

11.1% 16.8% 10.8% 14.4% B 71 +305

Neutral · 2

Drake Baldwin L Edge

20.3% 14.7% 5.0% 14.7% C 57 +390

Ozzie Albies S Edge

1.9% 6.9% 3.0% 4.5% C 50 +525

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

6.4% 7.4% 6.7% 7.0% D 48 +575

Austin Riley R

11.4% 13.0% 2.9% 11.2% D 47 +475

Dominic Smith L Edge

7.7% 6.0% 2.6% 5.8% D 46 —

103

Mauricio Dubon R

6.1% 3.1% 5.3% 4.3% D 38 +950

Read the columns: the breaking family (41.8% usage) carries Junk's damage — BRK is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stowers Hernández Olson Baldwin Albies Yastrzemski Smith

Legend

attack side — vs Pérez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Matt Olson +305 · 71

Kyle Stowers +425 · 60

Ozzie Albies +525 · 50

Mike Yastrzemski +575 · 48

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 7 mph out 69°F open

↑

7 mph · out

69°F

7:15p · peak

↑

7 mph · out

69°F

8:15p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

69°F

9:15p

-2

↑

8 mph · cross

69°F

10:15p

-4

↑

7 mph · in

69°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.30× 69°F, wind 7 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Martín Pérez · LHP 1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 60 C+ +425 WARM 7 0.223 92.1 8.7% 11.1%vs LHP 396 14.1% 33.3% 25.6% 29

2 Owen Caissie 56 C — COOL 18 0.212 91.8 10.0% 24.0% 398 15.2% 0.0% 21.3% 6

3 Heriberto Hernández 54 C +390 COOL 24 0.233 91.9 8.9% 45.0%vs LHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 36.1% 27

4 Otto Lopez 44 D +750 COOL 76 0.159 89.4 6.4% 8.3%vs LHP 402 7.3% 0.0% 9.8% 47

5 Javier Sanoja 38 D +850 WARM 105 0.134 86.7 3.5% 17.6%vs LHP 383 5.4% 11.1% 9.4% 33

6 Jakob Marsee 37 D +950 · 108 0.101 87.0 4.8% 12.5%vs LHP 380 6.7% 11.1% 9.1% 23

7 Xavier Edwards 36 D — COOL 115 0.107 86.9 4.9% 23.5%vs LHP 396 4.5% 0.0% 9.9% 37

vs Janson Junk · RHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.03 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 71 B +305 WARM 3 0.275 92.6 10.3% 33.9%vs RHP 407 23.5% 42.9% 36.8% 33

2 Drake Baldwin 57 C +390 · 17 0.192 91.6 10.3% 28.3%vs RHP 403 18.1% 14.3% 17.2% 38

3 Ozzie Albies 50 C +525 · 35 0.177 86.8 5.7% 13.2%vs RHP 386 14.8% 28.6% 21.1% 43

4 Mike Yastrzemski 48 D +575 WARM 48 0.153 90.3 7.1% 18.2%vs RHP 392 9.7% 22.2% 19.5% 15

5 Austin Riley 47 D +475 WARM 57 0.140 91.0 9.0% 17.2%vs RHP 407 8.8% 7.7% 9.7% 22

6 Dominic Smith 46 D — · 64 0.135 87.9 6.5% 15.7%vs RHP 392 8.5% 28.6% 16.6% 18

7 Mauricio Dubon 38 D +950 WARM 103 0.136 86.7 5.6% 12.2%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 42

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — tonight's full board is on us Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.

11 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.