TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ MIL

Neutral air · 0.99×

PIT @ MIL

American Family Field · 2:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 4 mph in 81°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-5 ↑

1:10p

-6 ↑

2:10p

-8 ↑

3:10p

-10 ↑

4:10p

-10 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at -5

Best of game Jake Bauers conv 21 · vs Ashcraft ⟷ Brandon Lowe conv 17 · vs May → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Braxton Ashcraft RHP · PIT

leak 89

1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jake Bauers +390 C ●●●○○

2 Brice Turang +525 D ●●○○○

3 Jackson Chourio +425 D ●○○○○

FADE Dustin May RHP · STL

leak 40

0.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.56 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Lowe +330 D ●●●○○

2 Bryan Reynolds +500 D ●○○○○

3 Jake Mangum — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: Match 26.2% · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ COOL vs Ashcraft Edge +390 0.233 · 92.6 · 9.2% 16.7% 26.2% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· — Brandon Lowe vs May Edge +330 0.228 · 91.0 · 9.0% 16.7% 16.6% F B O D 48

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Ashcraft Edge +525 0.188 · 90.5 · 7.1% 16.7% 15.2% F B O D 42

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Ashcraft +425 0.188 · 92.0 · 8.9% 8.3% 10.5% F B O D 44

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Ashcraft Edge +625 0.140 · 88.6 · 7.7% 10.0% 8.3% F B O D 36

· — Bryan Reynolds vs May Edge +500 0.177 · 90.8 · 8.6% 7.7% 9.7% F B O D 41

· MIL William Contreras COOL vs Ashcraft +525 0.121 · 89.7 · 6.7% 9.1% 7.3% F B O D 33

· — Jake Mangum COOL vs May Edge — 0.074 · 85.3 · 2.8% 8.3% 6.6% F B O D 22

· MIL Garrett Mitchell vs Ashcraft Edge +525 0.162 · 92.7 · 9.4% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 40

· — Spencer Horwitz COOL vs May Edge +575 0.171 · 87.0 · 7.4% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 37

· MIL Joey Ortiz COOL vs Ashcraft — 0.116 · 87.9 · 4.9% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 29

· — Nick Gonzales vs May +950 0.092 · 86.2 · 4.5% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 25

· — Jared Triolo COOL vs May — 0.066 · 87.2 · 3.9% 0.0% 5.4% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 49.4% FB 45.6% OFF 5.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jake Bauers L Edge

13.8% 13.8% 12.9% 13.7% C 53 +390

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jackson Chourio R

13.7% 13.0% 3.4% 12.1% D 44 +425

Brice Turang L Edge

9.2% 10.0% 1.8% 8.3% D 42 +525

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

11.7% 16.9% 7.4% 14.1% D 40 +525

118

Christian Yelich L Edge

10.9% 8.3% 12.5% 9.5% D 36 +625

131

William Contreras R

7.5% 8.2% 0.0% 7.3% D 33 +525

142

Joey Ortiz R

5.9% 3.3% 0.0% 3.9% D 29 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Ashcraft's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 66.8% ← leak BRK 26.2% OFF 7.0% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Brandon Lowe L Edge

16.0% 8.2% 9.1% 12.1% D 48 +330

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

11.2% 14.7% 7.4% 11.2% D 41 +500

109

Spencer Horwitz L Edge

8.3% 7.3% 10.7% 8.3% D 37 +575

144

Nick Gonzales R

2.4% 5.1% 0.0% 3.0% D 25 +950

146

Jake Mangum S Edge

2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% D 22 —

147

Jared Triolo R

2.7% 2.8% 0.0% 2.3% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (66.8% usage) carries May's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Turang Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Ashcraft fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.90× Wind 4 mph in 81°F retractable

-5

↑

4 mph · cross

77°F

1:10p · peak

-6

↑

5 mph · in

78°F

2:10p

-8

↑

7 mph · in

79°F

3:10p

-10

↑

8 mph · in

80°F

4:10p

-10

↑

8 mph · in

79°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 0.99× 81°F, wind 4 mph SSE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Braxton Ashcraft · RHP 1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 53 C +390 COOL 28 0.233 92.6 9.2% 35.1%vs RHP 402 20.0% 16.7% 26.2% 27

2 Jackson Chourio 44 D +425 · 75 0.188 92.0 8.9% 17.2%vs RHP 402 14.9% 8.3% 10.5% 41

3 Brice Turang 42 D +525 COOL 85 0.188 90.5 7.1% 28.1%vs RHP 407 11.8% 16.7% 15.2% 35

4 Garrett Mitchell 40 D +525 · 97 0.162 92.7 9.4% 25.8%vs RHP 415 7.6% 0.0% 11.1% 22

5 Christian Yelich 36 D +625 WARM 118 0.140 88.6 7.7% 14.3%vs RHP 404 6.7% 10.0% 8.3% 31

6 William Contreras 33 D +525 COOL 131 0.121 89.7 6.7% 17.2%vs RHP 419 9.7% 9.1% 7.3% 34

7 Joey Ortiz 29 D — COOL 142 0.116 87.9 4.9% 12.1%vs RHP 395 5.4% 0.0% 6.8% 15

vs Dustin May · RHP 0.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.56 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 48 D +330 · 50 0.228 91.0 9.0% 24.7%vs RHP 393 15.5% 16.7% 16.6% 33

2 Bryan Reynolds 41 D +500 · 93 0.177 90.8 8.6% 18.0%vs RHP 409 12.5% 7.7% 9.7% 37

3 Spencer Horwitz 37 D +575 COOL 109 0.171 87.0 7.4% 17.9%vs RHP 395 11.4% 0.0% 9.4% 8

4 Nick Gonzales 25 D +950 WARM 144 0.092 86.2 4.5% 11.6%vs RHP 397 7.3% 0.0% 6.0% 47

5 Jake Mangum 22 D — COOL 146 0.074 85.3 2.8% 12.0%vs RHP 384 4.2% 8.3% 6.6% 37

6 Jared Triolo 22 D — COOL 147 0.066 87.2 3.9% 5.3%vs RHP 419 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — tonight's full board is on us Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.

10 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.