TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ KC

Kauffman Stadium is live · 1.10×

MIN @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 7:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 7 mph in 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

6:40p

-6 ↑

7:40p

-8 ↑

8:40p

-9 ↑

9:40p

-7 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at -5

Best of game Jac Caglianone conv 19 · vs Ober ⟷ Trevor Larnach conv 21 · vs Wacha → edge: Jac Caglianone

ATTACK Bailey Ober RHP · MIN

leak 87

1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.07 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jac Caglianone +320 C ●●●○○

2 Carter Jensen +350 C ●●○○○

3 Michael Massey +525 D ●●○○○

FADE Michael Wacha RHP · KC

leak 32

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · stingy — thin edge

1 Trevor Larnach +575 D ●●●○○

2 Royce Lewis +350 C ●●●○○

3 Luke Keaschall +850 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jac Caglianone: Match 18.8% · 14D pace 20.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Jac Caglianone ✶ COOL vs Ober Edge +320 0.203 · 92.9 · 11.7% 20.0% 18.8% F B O C 57

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Wacha +350 0.186 · 90.0 · 9.0% 18.2% 14.5% F B O C 50

· MIN Kody Clemens COOL vs Wacha Edge +390 0.238 · 92.6 · 8.8% 9.1% 14.5% F B O C 54

· KC Carter Jensen vs Ober Edge +350 0.190 · 90.6 · 9.7% 9.1% 13.1% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Wacha Edge +575 0.171 · 87.6 · 7.2% 25.0% 17.0% F B O D 46

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Wacha +850 0.099 · 84.7 · 4.7% 20.0% 11.0% F B O D 34

· KC Michael Massey vs Ober Edge +525 0.156 · 89.9 · 7.5% 10.0% 11.8% F B O D 44

· MIN Josh Bell vs Wacha Edge +500 0.169 · 90.1 · 8.1% 10.0% 10.2% F B O D 45

· MIN Brooks Lee COOL vs Wacha Edge +625 0.176 · 87.7 · 4.9% 8.3% 10.9% F B O D 42

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Ober Edge +700 0.131 · 88.2 · 7.2% 9.1% 7.9% F B O D 40

· KC Salvador Perez vs Ober +370 0.162 · 89.0 · 9.8% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 44

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Wacha Edge — 0.115 · 89.5 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 34

· MIN Austin Martin COOL vs Wacha — 0.077 · 87.1 · 3.5% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 57.6% ← leak OFF 23.7% BRK 18.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kody Clemens L Edge

8.7% 11.1% 20.6% 11.8% C 54 +390

Royce Lewis R

15.3% 8.7% 8.2% 12.5% C 50 +350

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Trevor Larnach L Edge

8.1% 5.7% 9.3% 8.0% D 46 +575

Josh Bell S Edge

10.7% 5.8% 13.2% 10.2% D 45 +500

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.0% 1.2% 0.0% 3.6% D 42 +625

126

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.6% 6.5% 11.8% 6.7% D 34 —

128

Luke Keaschall R

4.5% 0.0% 2.3% 3.4% D 34 +850

143

Austin Martin R

2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.6% usage) carries Wacha's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

OFF 35.1% FB 34.9% BRK 29.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jac Caglianone L Edge

11.1% 13.3% 18.0% 14.4% C 57 +320

Carter Jensen L Edge

8.7% 10.7% 9.5% 9.9% C 52 +350

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Salvador Perez R

8.2% 13.6% 7.0% 10.2% D 44 +370

Michael Massey L Edge

2.2% 7.1% 5.8% 5.9% D 44 +525

Isaac Collins S Edge

0.0% 5.8% 10.0% 5.4% D 40 +700

Read the columns: no single family leads Ober's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lewis Larnach Keaschall Caglianone

Legend

attack side — vs Ober fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jac Caglianone +320 · 57

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.00× Wind 7 mph in 85°F open

-5

↑

7 mph · in

85°F

6:40p · peak

-6

↑

8 mph · in

85°F

7:40p

-8

↑

9 mph · in

83°F

8:40p

-9

↑

10 mph · in

82°F

9:40p

-7

↑

11 mph · in

80°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.10× 85°F, wind 7 mph NNE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Michael Wacha · RHP 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 54 C +390 COOL 25 0.238 92.6 8.8% 18.7%vs RHP 390 17.1% 9.1% 14.5% 37

2 Royce Lewis 50 C +350 WARM 38 0.186 90.0 9.0% 16.3%vs RHP 398 16.9% 18.2% 14.5% 34

3 Trevor Larnach 46 D +575 WARM 60 0.171 87.6 7.2% 16.4%vs RHP 397 10.0% 25.0% 17.0% 22

4 Josh Bell 45 D +500 WARM 67 0.169 90.1 8.1% 18.5%vs RHP 405 10.3% 10.0% 10.2% 27

5 Brooks Lee 42 D +625 COOL 86 0.176 87.7 4.9% 20.0%vs RHP 369 14.4% 8.3% 10.9% 34

6 Victor Caratini 34 D — COOL 126 0.115 89.5 6.6% 16.7%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 16

7 Luke Keaschall 34 D +850 WARM 128 0.099 84.7 4.7% 10.0%vs RHP 373 6.2% 20.0% 11.0% 29

8 Austin Martin 28 D — COOL 143 0.077 87.1 3.5% 4.0%vs RHP 392 1.6% 0.0% 7.1% 18

vs Bailey Ober · RHP 1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.07 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone ✶ 57 C +320 COOL 14 0.203 92.9 11.7% 28.9%vs RHP 416 14.0% 20.0% 18.8% 34

2 Carter Jensen 52 C +350 WARM 31 0.190 90.6 9.7% 18.1%vs RHP 396 14.6% 9.1% 13.1% 24

3 Salvador Perez 44 D +370 · 73 0.162 89.0 9.8% 19.7%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 37

4 Michael Massey 44 D +525 WARM 80 0.156 89.9 7.5% 8.5%vs RHP 398 6.7% 10.0% 11.8% 32

5 Isaac Collins 40 D +700 COOL 96 0.131 88.2 7.2% 8.7%vs RHP 394 6.2% 9.1% 7.9% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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