TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ CLE

Playable air · 1.05×

NYM @ CLE

Progressive Field · 1:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 8 mph cross 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

1:10p

-4 ↑

2:10p

-2 ↑

3:10p

+0 ↑

4:10p

+1 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 5:10p window peaks +1

Best of game Francisco Lindor conv 18 · vs Griffin ⟷ Rhys Hoskins conv 20 · vs McLean → edge: Rhys Hoskins

ATTACK Foster Griffin LHP · WSH

leak 85

1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.54 · leakiest side of this game

1 Francisco Lindor +425 D ●●●○○

2 Carson Benge +625 D ●●○○○

3 Marcus Semien +625 D ●●○○○

FADE Nolan McLean RHP · NYM

leak 84

0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rhys Hoskins — D ●●●○○

2 Angel Martinez — D ●○○○○

3 Chase Delauter +525 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rhys Hoskins: 13.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· CLE Rhys Hoskins ✶ HOT vs McLean — 0.201 · 89.0 · 9.7% 16.7% 23.8% F B O D 49

· — Francisco Lindor COOL vs Griffin Edge +425 0.187 · 91.5 · 9.4% 15.4% 21.0% F B O D 49

· — Carson Benge vs Griffin +625 0.135 · 89.3 · 8.3% 15.4% 12.2% F B O D 42

· — Marcus Semien COOL vs Griffin Edge +625 0.135 · 86.4 · 8.1% 10.0% 12.1% F B O D 40

· — Brett Baty vs Griffin — 0.103 · 89.6 · 8.7% 10.0% 10.9% F B O D 38

· — Bo Bichette COOL vs Griffin Edge +625 0.114 · 89.5 · 7.5% 7.7% 8.5% F B O D 37

· — Francisco Alvarez vs Griffin Edge +475 0.182 · 90.2 · 12.4% 0.0% 15.7% F B O D 46

· CLE Angel Martinez COOL vs McLean Edge — 0.191 · 87.8 · 7.3% 0.0% 13.4% F B O D 38

· CLE Chase Delauter vs McLean Edge +525 0.165 · 91.3 · 6.9% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 38

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs McLean Edge +750 0.150 · 88.4 · 5.5% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 36

· — A.J. Ewing vs Griffin +750 0.137 · — · 8.3% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 36

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs McLean Edge +525 0.155 · 89.2 · 6.3% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 34

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs McLean Edge +750 0.124 · 86.5 · 4.6% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 31

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs McLean Edge — 0.059 · 83.6 · 1.5% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 20

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 63.1% ← leak BRK 30.2% OFF 6.5% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Rhys Hoskins R

12.2% 15.4% 13.3% 13.2% D 49 —

102

Angel Martinez S Edge

6.6% 14.9% 3.4% 7.6% D 38 —

104

Chase Delauter L Edge

8.8% 6.0% 1.6% 6.6% D 38 +525

116

Travis Bazzana L Edge

4.1% 3.8% 3.6% 3.9% D 36 +750

127

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 34 +525

137

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.4% 4.8% 1.1% 3.0% D 31 +750

149

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 20 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.1% usage) carries McLean's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 58.9% ← leak BRK 24.6% OFF 16.5% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.2% 7.1% 7.5% 9.7% D 49 +425

Francisco Alvarez R Edge

18.0% 15.6% 15.8% 16.9% D 46 +475

Carson Benge L

7.8% 8.9% 5.7% 7.7% D 42 +625

Marcus Semien R Edge

10.1% 2.3% 8.3% 7.3% D 40 +625

107

Brett Baty L

7.7% 12.5% 4.3% 8.0% D 38 —

112

Bo Bichette R Edge

4.8% 11.0% 0.0% 6.3% D 37 +625

114

A.J. Ewing L

9.0% 8.3% 2.9% 7.7% D 36 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.9% usage) carries Griffin's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Hoskins Lindor Benge

Legend

attack side — vs Griffin fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 8 mph cross 83°F open

-3

↑

8 mph · cross

79°F

1:10p

-4

↑

8 mph · cross

81°F

2:10p

-2

↑

7 mph · cross

82°F

3:10p

↑

6 mph · cross

83°F

4:10p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

84°F

5:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.05× 83°F, wind 8 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nolan McLean · RHP 0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins ✶ 49 D — HOT 41 0.201 89.0 9.7% 25.0%vs RHP 389 13.9% 16.7% 23.8% 8

2 Angel Martinez 38 D — COOL 102 0.191 87.8 7.3% 26.5%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 22

3 Chase Delauter 38 D +525 WARM 104 0.165 91.3 6.9% 25.0%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 30

4 Travis Bazzana 36 D +750 COOL 116 0.150 88.4 5.5% 19.1%vs RHP 396 11.3% 0.0% 9.7% 33

5 Jose Ramirez 34 D +525 COOL 127 0.155 89.2 6.3% 11.3%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 34

6 Brayan Rocchio 31 D +750 COOL 137 0.124 86.5 4.6% 12.3%vs RHP 386 7.4% 0.0% 7.8% 36

7 Steven Kwan 20 D — COOL 149 0.059 83.6 1.5% 1.7%vs RHP 381 1.0% 0.0% 6.4% 37

vs Foster Griffin · LHP 1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.54 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor 49 D +425 COOL 42 0.187 91.5 9.4% 20.0%vs LHP 394 11.0% 15.4% 21.0% 33

2 Francisco Alvarez 46 D +475 WARM 59 0.182 90.2 12.4% 22.2%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 16

3 Carson Benge 42 D +625 WARM 88 0.135 89.3 8.3% 18.8%vs LHP 404 10.0% 15.4% 12.2% 30

4 Marcus Semien 40 D +625 COOL 95 0.135 86.4 8.1% 9.5%vs LHP 391 10.9% 10.0% 12.1% 26

5 Brett Baty 38 D — WARM 107 0.103 89.6 8.7% 0.0%vs LHP 395 6.7% 10.0% 10.9% 12

6 Bo Bichette 37 D +625 COOL 112 0.114 89.5 7.5% 17.4%vs LHP 388 9.0% 7.7% 8.5% 40

7 A.J. Ewing 36 D +750 WARM 114 0.137 — 8.3% 18.2%vs LHP — 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 39

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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